2015 ENSO super thread

[Isotherm]

Great stuff...thanks a bunch

 

 

Interestingly, if we use NYC as a point of reference, no winter of more than 26" of snow occurred in the entire traditional el nino list, whereas, the modoki list is obviously significantly snowier, with only 2-3 of the years being poor snowfall wise. If you think about the differences in physical forcing in the Pacific, it makes sense.

[wolfpackmet]

Here are the latest ECMWF nino 3.4 plumes.

 

Last year's plumes did a pretty good job through 3 months but too warm into the summer. 

 

Also interesting ENSO post from WSI:  http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/evidence-that-the-atmospheric-oceanic-system-is-evolving-towards-a-strong-el-nino/

[donsutherland1]

This was just the strongest Central Pacific westerly wind event of the 2000's so far according

to CSU Philip Klotzbach tied in with the twin cyclones.

Whether or not that's the case is still uncertain. The SOI may well drop below -40, but it remains to be seen whether it will reach or surpass the -76.05 figure of 2/4/2010. That's the recent benchmark.

 

Figures of -40 or below have been relatively uncommon in recent years:

 

2010: 7 days (5 days with -50 or below)

2011: 1 day

2012: 4 days

2013: 2 days

2014: 0 days

2015: 1 day (earlier this year)

 

The 2/4/2010 850 mb Zonal Wind anomalies are below:

[roardog]

Does a central/west based Nino during the Summer favor a different pattern over the US than an east based Nino? I've seen lots of discussion on Winter patterns but don't recall anything about Summer.

[GaWx]

Does a central/west based Nino during the Summer favor a different pattern over the US than an east based Nino? I've seen lots of discussion on Winter patterns but don't recall anything about Summer.

 

 I'm not sure about the breakdown between central/west and east, but a Nino in general tends to favor a cooler than normal summer for a good portion of the US (probably moreso for a stronger one) though I don't know about your area in particular. Also, the Atlantic basin tropics would likely be relatively quiet overall again this year though it obviously only takes one hit in the wrong place to potentially be a bad year for casualties/damage. Generally, the stronger the Nino, the quieter.

 

Edit: I don't know if this is the best place to put this but fwiw:

 

  I just read that the MJO just hit an all-time record high amplitude of +4.10. I checked the table and it has exceeded 4.0 in any phase in any month only once for a two day period in 2/1985, when it was ~4.01.

 

 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

[Cheeznado]

http://www.livescience.com/50149-el-nino-forecasting-tornadoes.html

[donsutherland1]

Update...

 

The SOI bottomed out at -35.9. The tweeted declaration concerning the strongest westerly wind burst in the central Pacific of the 2000s proved premature and incorrect. The most recent event did not even rival that of 2/4/2010. 

[GaWx]

 I don't know if this is the best place to put this but fwiw:

 

 I just read that the MJO just hit an all-time record high amplitude of +4.10. I checked the table and it has exceeded 4.0 in any phase in any month only once for a two day period in 2/1985, when it was ~4.01.

 

 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

 

 Actually, it apparently went much higher: to 4.8557429!!!

 7   4.8557429

 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

[donsutherland1]

Don, using the ESRL raw data this westerly wind burst was stronger than the 2/4/10 event

when you compare them. Having the cyclones in that configuration made the difference.

 

B_5tnRPUkAAN_c6.png-large.png

 

 

One day peak

 

31115.jpg

 

2:4:10.jpg

 

five day mean 

 

15.jpg

 

 

 

2010.jpg

Thanks for this data, Bluewave. I hadn't seen it and stand corrected.

[csnavywx]

Westerly wind anomalies continue after the MJO bonanza.

 

Nino regions 1-4 have responded significantly in the past week and subsurface anomalies look very healthy.

 

The CFS weeklies indicate an El Nino type configuration to the Walker cell over the next few weeks (when looking at 850mb anomalies).

[The_Global_Warmer]

ENSO 1-2 has arrived to nino waters.

 

[griteater]

ENSO 1-2 has arrived to nino waters.

 

 

[aslkahuna]

A Summer warm ENSO phase plus a +PDO favors a late starting and not very robust monsoon but one characterized by some extremely violent thunderstorms in SE AZ.

Steve

[GaWx]

The current Nino continues to be low end weak. So, it has only barely warmed at the sfc in 3.4 in recent weeks. Based on the history of the 12 2nd year Nino's since the late 1800's: if the current one were to remain on the weak to low end moderate side into fall, the chance for another overall cold winter for the eastern 1/3 of the US in 2015-6 would be pretty high though it would help if the NAO were to flip at least down to neutral.

[cloneranger]

GaWx...would it be okay if I asked for the list of 12 2nd year El Nino years that you are considering?

[GaWx]

GaWx...would it be okay if I asked for the list of 12 2nd year El Nino years that you are considering?

1885-6, 1896-7, 1900-1, 1905-6, 1914-5, 1919-20, 1940-1, 1953-4, 1958-9, 1969-70, 1977-8, 1987-8

As you can see, we're quite "overdue" for the next two year Niño being that it has been 28 years since the last one. Previously, the longest such period going back to the late 1800's was only 21 years (1919 to 1940). Average period between double Nino's is only 11 years.

Edited

[icebreaker5221]

With warming in all 4 ENSO regions, we've made good progress towards sustaining a multi-year El Nino.  However, trade winds are starting to strengthen again, so we're going to want another WWB over the next couple weeks if we want to keep the ball rolling.

 

[Yellow Evan]

Maysack could probs help in the WWB department.

[The_Global_Warmer]

If the anomalous Westerly winds or weak trades return to eastern enso 4 and something decent over enso 3 we will likely see a pretty Damn potent nino and very large spatially

[Amped]

With warming in all 4 ENSO regions, we've made good progress towards sustaining a multi-year El Nino.  However, trade winds are starting to strengthen again, so we're going to want another WWB over the next couple weeks if we want to keep the ball rolling.

 

u.anom.30.5S-5N.png

 

We already have weak Nino and decent subsurface SSTs. The ball can stop rolling for a couple months and we still make moderate by October as long as the trend doesn't reverse too much.

[GaWx]

Per Cowan's graph, it has been slowly stairstepping warmer in 3.4 and it is now at +0.649 though it is still a good bit lower than several peaks reaching the +0.75-0.90 area Jan-Mar:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

[wolfpackmet]

It was pretty obvious that the CPC was going to have to declare this current ENSO cycle an El Nino last month as we were only 1 trimonthly away, using their own criteria.  We have now reached 5 ONIs at or above +0.50 C.  

[GaWx]

^If the next peak between now and fall were to rise up to, say, only within the +0.6 to +1.3 range, I'd think that the winter of 2015-6 would have a good chance of being the 3rd overall cold winter in a row for at least most of the eastern 1/3 of the US based on an analysis of the 12 2nd year El Nino's since the late 1800's. However, I'm thinking that the peak being within the lower end of this range (say, +0.6 to +0.7) is quite unlikely based on the current quite warm subsurface but we'll see.

If this next peak gets into the high end moderate to strong, then the chances of an overall cold winter for the bulk of the E 1/3 of the US in 2015-6 would be a lot lower than it would be for a weak to low end moderate based on history though a largely near normal winter would be very much in play.

[Isotherm]

^If the next peak between now and fall were to rise up to, say, only within the +0.6 to +1.3 range, I'd think that the winter of 2015-6 would have a good chance of being the 3rd overall cold winter in a row for at least most of the eastern 1/3 of the US based on an analysis of the 12 2nd year El Nino's since the late 1800's. However, I'm thinking that the peak being within the lower end of this range (say, +0.6 to +0.7) is quite unlikely based on the current quite warm subsurface but we'll see.

If this next peak gets into the high end moderate to strong, then the chances of an overall cold winter for the bulk of the E 1/3 of the US in 2015-6 would be a lot lower than it would be for a weak to low end moderate based on history though a largely near normal winter would be very much in play.

 

 

 

The warmer subsurface argument hasn't worked that well in previous years, and at this forecast range, I'd lean heavily on statistics until we can get a better handle on progression a few months from now. A peak of +0.7c to +1.2c is most likely based upon historical similarities. There's a chance we end up stronger than that, though a very low one I'd say.

[uncle W]

with JFM tri monthly coming in at +0.5 it becomes an official El Nino event...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

[GaWx]

Looking like we have a good shot at the first two year El Nino event since 1950 where the first year highest

tri monthly through JFM is under +1.0  and the second year is above +1.0.

 

 IF we get a trimonthly peak later this year of , say, +1.4+, I'd probably consider these 2nd year Nino's as the best analogs ENSOwise at least:

 

1940-1, 1905-6, and 1896-7

 

 None of these three were overall cold winters for the E 1/3 of the US. The best shot at that would be if the upcoming peak is weak to low end moderate a la 1977-8, 1969-70, 1958-9, 1914-5, and 1885-6.

[uncle W]

Looking like we have a good shot the first two year El Nino event since 1950 where the first year highest

tri monthly through JFM is under +1.0  and the second year highest is above +1.0.

the JMA index was higher than I thought...it dropped off a bit since the peak...second year events 1877-78, 1889-90 and 1996-97 were stronger...if it's a weak event again next year 1969-70, 1977-78 and 2003-04 would be analogs...

https://coaps.fsu.edu/jma

[michsnowfreak]

^If the next peak between now and fall were to rise up to, say, only within the +0.6 to +1.3 range, I'd think that the winter of 2015-6 would have a good chance of being the 3rd overall cold winter in a row for at least most of the eastern 1/3 of the US based on an analysis of the 12 2nd year El Nino's since the late 1800's. However, I'm thinking that the peak being within the lower end of this range (say, +0.6 to +0.7) is quite unlikely based on the current quite warm subsurface but we'll see.

If this next peak gets into the high end moderate to strong, then the chances of an overall cold winter for the bulk of the E 1/3 of the US in 2015-6 would be a lot lower than it would be for a weak to low end moderate based on history though a largely near normal winter would be very much in play.

[griteater]

WSI blog entry gives an interpretation of the April Euro ENSO plume forecasts from recent years and states, "This analysis confirms our idea that we are in for a stronger El Nino event than what occurred last year, but not as strong as what the raw ECMWF model is showing."

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

 

WSI blog entry gives an interpretation of the April Euro ENSO plume forecasts from recent years and states, "This analysis confirms our idea that we are in for a stronger El Nino event than what occurred last year, but not as strong as what the raw ECMWF model is showing."

 

 

 

Not sure how one can "confirm" much of anything at 6 month lead time, but "A" for effort.