Rainman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 I feel as though odds are it will end up above normal for many folks, but perhaps not as warm as many, myself included, had been anticipating.It'll be fun to watch. 240hrs is looking rather classic, no?Transition underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 the 0z GFS says no. no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 the 0z GFS says no. no snow. So does the euro, eps, and gefs. Nice firehose tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 +AO +NAO , +EPO coming back 1st week of Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 This about as aligned as I've ever seen the 3 major globals at this time horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 While I think i have missed many over the years, this is the largest area of air below the GOES satellite color range for dry that i have yet seen. Sometimes I do wish that the threshhold would be adjusted, but that might throw off some of the detail in areas of moist air. While I am not certain of the connections between this large amount of very dry air to the ENSO, it is occurring concurrently, and is affecting a very large amount of atmosphere over the Pacific, as such it seems good to archive in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 While I think i have missed many over the years, this is the largest area of air below the GOES satellite color range for dry that i have yet seen. Sometimes I do wish that the threshhold would be adjusted, but that might throw off some of the detail in areas of moist air. While I am not certain of the connections between this large amount of very dry air to the ENSO, it is occurring concurrently, and is affecting a very large amount of atmosphere over the Pacific, as such it seems good to archive in this thread. Hadley cells are unusually large AND strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Hadley cells are unusually large AND strong. Do we still need to file with the IRS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 there are some hints that the first half of December may turn out to be seasonally cold. IMO This would be significant because most of the "consensus forecast" show that December 2015, will feature large areas of Above Normal and Much Above Normal temperatures across the entire northern half of the country, from the Rockies to New England. FWIW... I see December 2015 as the KEY. As we all know the overwhelming amount of data shows Strong El Ninos in r December favors Above and Much Above Normal temperatures over the northern half of the country So if December 2015, ends up with seasonal cold in the Plains, the Midwest, and the East, it would mean that the "consensus forecast" of a mild/ less snowy winter for the central and eastern US would be in serious trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 All he meant was that there were some signs that December could have been seasonable, which obviously didn't work out. This doesn't mean we will not see a rebound, but rather it would have been more of a slam dunk if December had been seasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 All he meant was that there were some signs that December could have been seasonable, which obviously didn't work out. This doesn't mean we will not see a rebound, but rather it would have been more of a slam dunk if December had been seasonable. What were the signs? I never saw them. I just saw people yammering on about "modoki" and trying to convince themselves that cold was coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 What were the signs? I never saw them. I just saw people yammering on about "modoki" and trying to convince themselves that cold was coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 What are thoughts going into the prospected decline of this El nino? As of right now nothing really shouting out for a decline or strengthen. There looks to be a possibility of a new KW popping up but yet to see any signs that this will be potent. 850 anoms show something might try to happen toward the end of the month right in the heart of the beast, but that is going 10 days out. Subsurface shows weaken of the push cool anom push and the thermocline retracting up toward the surface in eastern 3 and 1+2. Is this due to the KW that recently passed reflecting off the SA coast back west? OLR looks to push east of the dateline but also looks as though it may weaken too. Strongest convergence/divergence looks to be around 150W to 150 E which would make sense to give rise to convection and thus shift OLR west and even possibly ignite a small MJO wave through that region (phase 5-7) yet to be seen though so dont take that verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Part of me thinks the El Nino will decline either much slower or much faster than anyone expects. If it is much slower, I think we get a winter like 1959-60 or 1988-89 in 2016-17 those were both pretty interesting winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 850mb zonal wind forecasts show another strong WWB over enso 3-4 and enso 3. This nino won't be declining fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 850mb zonal wind forecasts show another strong WWB over enso 3-4 and enso 3. This nino won't be declining fast that's awesome to hear hopefully will keep the warmth in the east so I can concentrate on my golf game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 OND ONI came in at +2.3° C. This ties OND & NDJ from the 1997-1998 El Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The tao/triton subsurface data shows the warm pool between the dateline and 150E starting to grow in response to the off the CHARTS WWB TAKING PLACE THAT IS ONLY FORECASTED TO EXPAND IN SIZE LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE WISE THE next 10 days. With solar insolation starting to rise again at the equator heat will start to pool again in response to these wwbs. Can anyone link me to historic. Zonal wind anomalies so they can be compared to other big events?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Can anyone link me to historic. Zonal wind anomalies so they can be compared to other big events?? Hit this link and scroll down to the bottom...and choose Surface Zonal Wind Stress Anomaly: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/pentad.shtml And you can create your own zonal wind hovmoller plots here: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/time_plot/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Hit this link and scroll down to the bottom...and choose Surface Zonal Wind Stress Anomaly: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/pentad.shtml And you can create your own zonal wind hovmoller plots here: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/time_plot/ Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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