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2015 ENSO super thread

hurricaneman

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

We'll see. I haven't read any Cohen lately. I wonder if this round of forcing is related to Eurasian snowcover. It'll have it's work cut out for it.

High pressure in Siberia putting itself to work, don't have the 12-15 Euro Ens on the Berlin site but the PV is almost split, had a couple of these almosts last year but it recovered.
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Rainman

Rainman

Posted
Posted

High pressure in Siberia putting itself to work, don't have the 12-15 Euro Ens on the Berlin site but the PV is almost split, had a couple of these almosts last year but it recovered.

 

Could be our best shot, or only shot, until the latter half of winter.  The 00z op EC is coming in with a less impressive NAO (not surprising considering how insane it was on the last run), but still holding firm with the ridging building into Alaska.  This is somewhat out of my league, but I would have to think the troposphere forcing on the stratosphere is still in play.

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RONALD1

RONALD1

Posted
Posted

The actual ssts in 2009, 2015, and 1997.

2015 looks a lot closer to 1997.

oAP6x31.jpg

Do u know what a Peruvian current is ? Weel it's steady an slowly killing the 1 an 2 from growing right now .. East base is unlikely this winter .. matter fact every thing is shifting west .. Looks like a  peak too me ?

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Rainman

Rainman

Posted
Posted

Do u know what a Peruvian current is ? Weel it's steady an slowly killing the 1 an 2 from growing right now .. East base is unlikely this winter .. matter fact every thing is shifting west .. Looks like a  peak too me ?

 

Did you get tired of trolling on twitter?  It's one of the strongest 1.2 regions on record with another KW on the way.  And you're right, it isn't east-based.  It's a full-fledged basin wide el Nino roaring along at record or near-record strength.

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calm_days

calm_days

Posted
Posted

The thing about weather is we're not good forecasting outside of 7 days.

 

Yes, an article published today following the temperature record yesterday expresses this;

 

El Niño has so far been underperforming in other respects involving changes in the atmosphere important to the winter climate forecast for California, he said.

 

One example: tropical rainfall has not extended from the International Date Line and eastward, approaching South America, as it did by this time in 1997.

 

“In 1997, that pattern has largely established itself,” Halpert said, but that pattern so far is “significantly weaker” than it was back then.  

Still, Halpert said, “it’s not too late for things to develop.”

 

Scientists say they expect El Niño rains to be concentrated in the months of January, February and March.  

 

“At some point, during December, we’ll transition to a much more active pattern” for storms, Swain said. “And by the end of December, and certainly by January, February and March, we’ll see above average precipitation, potentially well-above average.”

 

 

As you will often note, the weather patterns this year are rather peculiar without fitting a specific description that people already know.  Brick in the southeast forum has noted many times that the severe weather and overall thunderstorm patterns have changed quite a lot over the past two years, to something that at times is quite unfamiliar.

 

There may be some pattern similarities between this El Nino and previous ones, but whatever changes do occur are going to have to interact with whatever this presently active pattern is and what form it takes by December.

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calm_days

calm_days

Posted
Posted

The use of the word "certainly" with regards to above normal precipitation for California made me cringe.

 

Yes, almost twenty years have passed; while it seems possible some storms will form west of California, that may have been only with the atmospheric conditions of the time that the weather pattern response to heating occurred that way. 

 

I have found a working link to the article;

 

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-el-nino-temperatures-new-record-20151117-story.html#navtype=outfit

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1900hurricane

1900hurricane

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Posted

With respect to less convection than anticipated over the Tropical Eastern Pacific due to El Nino in October, I imagine that a powerful downward Madden-Julian pulse had much to do with it. This same pulse effectively shut down the Western Pacific typhoon season for roughly a month. Now that the pulse has passed, I'd be surprised if conditions expected of a strong El Nino didn't assert themselves.

 

tm_order.gif

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Rainman

Rainman

Posted
Posted

With respect to less convection than anticipated over the Tropical Eastern Pacific due to El Nino in October, I imagine that a powerful downward Madden-Julian pulse had much to do with it. This same pulse effectively shut down the Western Pacific typhoon season for roughly a month. Now that the pulse has passed, I'd be surprised if conditions expected of a strong El Nino didn't assert themselves.

 

Correct.  Quick glance at 200mb VP reveals total suppression of the ENSO signal in the east Pac from roughly 2 Nov to 12 Nov.

 

edit:  which looks like what you posted :P

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DTWXRISK

DTWXRISK

Posted
Posted
there are some hints that the first half of December may turn out to be seasonally cold.  IMO  This would be significant because most of the "consensus forecast" show that December 2015, will feature large areas of Above Normal and Much Above Normal temperatures across the entire northern half of the country, from the Rockies to New England.
 
FWIW...  I see December 2015 as the KEY.  As  we all know the overwhelming amount of data shows Strong El Ninos in r December favors Above and Much Above Normal temperatures over the northern half of the country   
 
So if December 2015, ends up with seasonal cold in the Plains, the Midwest, and the East, it would mean that the "consensus forecast" of a mild/ less snowy winter  for the central and eastern US would be in serious trouble.

 

It's also been said that many of the cold Novembers during strong el Ninos are due to outside factors disturbing el Nino's influence.  Simply matching November T anomalies to ENSO phase isn't a sufficient predictor of weather, and that method is being blown out of the water right now.  It's a silly rule of thumb that has been blown out of the water and will continue to be blown out of the water all month long.  This hang up on statistical averages baffles me.  Besides, there have been plenty of warm Novembers during el Nino.

 

Every event is what it is, and right now we're locked in to a classic el Nino wintertime pattern.  So, it's a little earlier than aggregate statistics suggest.  So what?  Are we really that dependent on statistical averages binned by month that if something appears 2 or 3 weeks earlier than averages suggest, that we are reduced to mass confusion and arguing?

 

There's so much we could talk about right now, but whether or not el Nino is dominating the pattern right now really shouldn't be one of them.

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Harry

Harry

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Posted

 

there are some hints that the first half of December may turn out to be seasonally cold.  IMO  This would be significant because most of the "consensus forecast" show that December 2015, will feature large areas of Above Normal and Much Above Normal temperatures across the entire northern half of the country, from the Rockies to New England.
 
FWIW...  I see December 2015 as the KEY.  As  we all know the overwhelming amount of data shows Strong El Ninos in r December favors Above and Much Above Normal temperatures over the northern half of the country   
 
So if December 2015, ends up with seasonal cold in the Plains, the Midwest, and the East, it would mean that the "consensus forecast" of a mild/ less snowy winter  for the central and eastern US would be in serious trouble.

 

 

 

Yep!!

 

Referring to this Dave?  I think we know what this means down the road if this happens.

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2715.gif

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Rainman

Rainman

Posted
Posted

 

there are some hints that the first half of December may turn out to be seasonally cold.  IMO  This would be significant because most of the "consensus forecast" show that December 2015, will feature large areas of Above Normal and Much Above Normal temperatures across the entire northern half of the country, from the Rockies to New England.
 
FWIW...  I see December 2015 as the KEY.  As  we all know the overwhelming amount of data shows Strong El Ninos in r December favors Above and Much Above Normal temperatures over the northern half of the country   
 
So if December 2015, ends up with seasonal cold in the Plains, the Midwest, and the East, it would mean that the "consensus forecast" of a mild/ less snowy winter  for the central and eastern US would be in serious trouble.

 

 

I agree, although for the record I said we were locked into a classic pattern before WPac convection turned it into a very non-classic pattern :P  December is definitely a key, but I don't see why it wouldn't work out to be reasonably close to el Nino climo.  The PV is getting some action, but those effects would most likely not be seen until sometime in Jan, right?

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

I agree, although for the record I said we were locked into a classic pattern before WPac convection turned it into a very non-classic pattern :P  December is definitely a key, but I don't see why it wouldn't work out to be reasonably close to el Nino climo.  The PV is getting some action, but those effects would most likely not be seen until sometime in Jan, right?

I feel as though odds are it will end up above normal for many folks, but perhaps not as warm as many, myself included, had been anticipating.

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