so_whats_happening Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 This is what we have had so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 The actual ssts in 2009, 2015, and 1997. 2015 looks a lot closer to 1997. Not seeing that at all. 97 looks more eastward.........to my failing eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 This is what we have had so far You'd be hard pressed to find a strong Nino with this type of CONUS temperature response of coast to coast warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utrex Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 This is what we have had so far I blame the anomalously warm West Coast waters for all the warmth to the West.There really are no analogs on record that we know of, that fits this Fall so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 You'd be hard pressed to find a strong Nino with this type of CONUS temperature response of coast to coast warmth. It will be interesting to see what happens this month but these are years with a fairly decent +QBO signal around this time. Took the data from: http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo.dat Looks like persistent troughing in the west and ridging in the east. The winter temps from those years are horrible mainly in the NE and around the great lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 This is what we have had so far Not that it makes much difference, but I wouldn't think it appropriate to show current anomalies vs a period that ended 20 years ago during a state of significant global warming, if you are trying to isolate the anomaly distribution pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Here is pressure pattern different scale coloring but about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Not that it makes much difference, but I wouldn't think it appropriate to show current anomalies vs a period that ended 20 years ago during a state of significant global warming, if you are trying to isolate the anomaly distribution pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 This could also stick well with an MJO signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Not seeing that at all. 97 looks more eastward.........to my failing eyes. Well yeah. A lot closer isn't exactly the same. Between the 3 years 2009 is the outlier. And it's not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Well yeah. A lot closer isn't exactly the same. Between the 3 years 2009 is the outlier. And it's not even close. When people are talking about 2009, they are talking about the location of the forcing, not the SST configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 First positive daily SOI in several months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 This is ironic, because: Unless you're referring to super El Niño's. I'd just like to point out that the sample size for super El Niño's is small, and thus, does not serve as a true statistic. I was referring to all 11 strong El Ninos, but in the southern Lakes. I didnt realize that there were (apparently) some mild Septs on the east coast. This is a cut/paste from our winter disc thread from the Lakes forum. These are Detroits monthly temps during strong Ninos. Blue is colder than normal, red is warmer, black is +/- 0.5F of normal. STRONG EL NINOS Season -- SEP -- OCT -- NOV -- DEC -- JAN -- FEB -- MAR -- APR 1877-78 -- 64.3 -- 53.8 -- 39.2 -- 38.1 -- 27.3 -- 29.2 -- 41.3 -- 53.4 1888-89 -- 60.0 -- 46.9 -- 41.4 -- 31.4 -- 29.8 -- 19.4 -- 37.4 -- 46.3 1896-97 -- 59.6 -- 47.6 -- 40.5 -- 30.3 -- 23.0 -- 27.4 -- 34.6 -- 45.2 1899-00 -- 59.7 -- 56.0 -- 42.8 -- 28.7 -- 28.3 -- 21.3 -- 26.3 -- 48.3 1902-03 -- 62.2 -- 52.4 -- 46.9 -- 26.9 -- 24.1 -- 25.6 -- 41.5 -- 46.9 1940-41 -- 62.8 -- 51.1 -- 38.0 -- 32.0 -- 26.3 -- 25.3 -- 30.5 -- 52.6 1957-58 -- 62.9 -- 50.8 -- 41.0 -- 34.1 -- 26.6 -- 22.8 -- 36.3 -- 49.6 1972-73 -- 63.0 -- 47.3 -- 37.4 -- 29.3 -- 28.8 -- 25.3 -- 43.3 -- 48.8 1982-83 -- 61.8 -- 52.5 -- 41.6 -- 37.3 -- 28.7 -- 31.6 -- 38.3 -- 44.2 1991-92 -- 63.1 -- 54.8 -- 38.5 -- 32.1 -- 28.3 -- 30.8 -- 35.5 -- 46.3 1997-98 -- 62.7 -- 51.7 -- 37.1 -- 32.2 -- 32.8 -- 36.7 -- 39.5 -- 50.4 (for reference, avg temps) SEP: 64.4...OCT: 52.4...NOV: 41.5...DEC: 30.1...JAN: 25.6...FEB: 28.1...MAR: 37.2...APR: 49.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 It will be interesting to see what happens this month but these are years with a fairly decent +QBO signal around this time. Took the data from: http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo.dat Looks like persistent troughing in the west and ridging in the east. The winter temps from those years are horrible mainly in the NE and around the great lakes. I would take most of the winters in a heartbeat. Its actually not that bad even in the northeast. Look at the scale, its such a small departure PLUS its 1950-95 norms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 It will be interesting to see what happens this month but these are years with a fairly decent +QBO signal around this time. Took the data from: http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo.dat Looks like persistent troughing in the west and ridging in the east. The winter temps from those years are horrible mainly in the NE and around the great lakes. That scale is soooo small. The max below and above on the scale is only 1 degree F, and the increments are only 2 tenths of 1 degree F. Looks like noise at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 That scale is soooo small. The max below and above on the scale is only 1 degree F, and the increments are only 2 tenths of 1 degree F. Looks like noise at best. It's probably from having so many years in the average. Either way, something about it seems off and not correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 That was from those years with strong +QBO the September through November temps. September and October were more warm anoms across the country but when adding november large decreases in temp in the upper midwest and mountain west. I didnt post Dec thru Feb if you would like to see let me know or go try it for yourselves. Just an idea for why temps are the way they are. MSLP averaged from those years is fairly close to this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 only if you are drunk The actual ssts in 2009, 2015, and 1997.2015 looks a lot closer to 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Allan may soon need a scale adjustment for Nino 3.4... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 only if you are drunk You're the one seeing a non-existent modoki. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 only if you are drunk What? 2009 was warmer West of the dateline. But the sensible difference between 29C and 30.3C is largely irrelevant. The difference between 25-28C is massive. Which over the enso 3 region means a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 November 7th, 2015 minus 1997 and then minus 2009. Clearly 97 had a warmer 1+2 region, which we already know since this year is 2nd only to 97 in that department. 2015 is vastly different from 2009, with a wide expanse of much warmer anomalies spanning basically everywhere east of the dateline. 2015 is more similar to 1997 than it is to 2009 in the distribution of sea surface temperatures. Now let's qualitatively look at the anomaly distribution and magnitude of each year. 2015 1997 2009 This is not to mention the fact that 2009 became even more west-based with time as upwelling began along the South American coast. 2015 will see yet another KW by early December, and even if it does not, it will follow the climatological trend of gradually weakening from east to west beginning in early winter. 2009 is even more of a terrible analog because of the very low AAM background, 100 year solar minimum, and raging easterly QBO at 30mb heading into winter! Now let's look at the atmospheric response 2015 VP 1997 VP 2009 VP No one is going to say that there aren't important differences between 2015 and 1997, and technically anything that isn't the strongest el Nino on record is going to lurk in the territory between 97 and 09, but to say that 15 is more similar to 09 is objectively false. The VP signal alone shows that. It will be interesting to go back to these maps in early December after 1-2 warms again. October TNI for all 3 years. TNI is a measure of the spatial distribution of SSTs similar to what I was trying to show in the first plots: 2015: 0.017 (remarkable that it's even positive given how warm the western regions are!) 1997: 3.090 (where it peaked) 2009: -2.025 There are other factors at play that describe how useful 97 and 09 are as analogs (I mentioned how bad 09 is above), but 2015 is a full-fledged el Nino similar to 1997, but trailing in strength. However, it is not west-based, it is not modoki, and it is most certainly not 2009. PS - I know I am only showing one single day of SSTs in the plots. But the argument being made is that 2015 can only be seen as being is only dissimilar to 2009 on the date of November 7th if one is "drunk". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 That's to say nothing of the differences in the stratosphere at this phase. I know this is technically an ENSO thread, but I'm just saying....2015 ain't 2009. And it isn't going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 The subsurface warm pool continues to build Eastward. That is quite peculiar. The strong weakening of the trades is kicking off again. The 28C line will collapse East and South over the next 10 days over enso 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 When comparing October to November so far the warm pool movement is pretty huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utrex Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 When comparing October to November so far the warm pool movement is pretty huge. This supports my theory where as the cold pool pushes eastward, the warm pool does as well. It's suggested that this may certainly evolve into an east-based El Niño, contrary to popular belief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/november-el-ni%C3%B1o-update-it%E2%80%99s-small-world NWS take on current Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 This supports my theory where as the cold pool pushes eastward, the warm pool does as well. It's suggested that this may certainly evolve into an east-based El Niño, contrary to popular belief. The bottom map clearly shows the forcing of the cold water eastward. I suspect that will start mixing with the warm water which will begin to cool it. Plus, the cold water is expanding in size in addition to pressing east, which tells me the Niño is ready to peak. That's my hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 That's to say nothing of the differences in the stratosphere at this phase. I know this is technically an ENSO thread, but I'm just saying....2015 ain't 2009. And it isn't going to be. 15.gif 97.gif 09.gif Isn't this more reflective of the phase of the QBO? November 1997 and 2015 both saw a +QBO while 2009 saw a -QBO. If I recall correctly, November 1957 also saw a +QBO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 14, 2015 Share Posted November 14, 2015 Isn't this more reflective of the phase of the QBO? November 1997 and 2015 both saw a +QBO while 2009 saw a -QBO. If I recall correctly, November 1957 also saw a +QBO. QBO certainly plays a role in vortex strength. A +QBO tends to protect the vortex from weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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