OSUmetstud Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 It's also been said that many of the cold Novembers during strong el Ninos are due to outside factors disturbing el Nino's influence. Simply matching November T anomalies to ENSO phase isn't a sufficient predictor of weather, and that method is being blown out of the water right now. It's a silly rule of thumb that has been blown out of the water and will continue to be blown out of the water all month long. This hang up on statistical averages baffles me. Besides, there have been plenty of warm Novembers during el Nino. Every event is what it is, and right now we're locked in to a classic el Nino wintertime pattern. So, it's a little earlier than aggregate statistics suggest. So what? Are we really that dependent on statistical averages binned by month that if something appears 2 or 3 weeks earlier than averages suggest, that we are reduced to mass confusion and arguing? There's so much we could talk about right now, but whether or not el Nino is dominating the pattern right now really shouldn't be one of them. This isn't a nino pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Perhaps we are in a coherent mjo wave and its disrupting the normal nino response. Theres suppression over the Pacific and se ridging which are not typical nino November signals and neither is the mjo wave. Last I saw, it was a non-propagating signal (i.e. not a real MJO signal). Even if it started propagating, there'd be a time lag. It would explain weather 2 or 3 weeks from now, but not the current weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 This isn't a nino pattern oh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Last I saw, it was a non-propagating signal (i.e. not a real MJO signal). Even if it started propagating, there'd be a time lag. It would explain weather 2 or 3 weeks from now, but not the current weather. We've been in this phase for a few weeks. Look the olr hofmolller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 We've been in this phase for a few weeks. Look the olr hofmolller. It was non propagating for the entire month of October. It's been in phase 3 for 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Current 200mb v potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Current 200mb v potential I'm going to assume your point isn't that it's been a classic strong el Nino signal since July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Current 200mb v potential Are you talking about the week of negative interference at the bottom? Are you going to explain how that is creating a classic el Nino signal across North America while the classic el Nino isn't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 I'm going to assume your point isn't that it's been a classic strong el Nino signal since July. It isnt. I'm just saying whatever is going on right now (debatable on mjo) but it is messing with the coherent nino signal in the pac. This has been going from mid Oct onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Doesn't look super typical. Where are the big low heights near ak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 1997 same time frame. SE trough anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Honestly, those maps look the same to me from a general perspective. From the west Pacific all the way to western Canada and the western US. The Aleutian low signal is right there, it's just not as anomalous as 1997. And the central Pac ridge is more amplified right now. We're obviously dealing with less zonal flow across the Pac right now. I see western Canada flooded with warmth in both of them. I agree that the signal across the SE isn't there yet. But 97 was also stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 1982... http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd66.249.84.72.312.16.29.35.prcp.png Bless you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 BTW, I'm not implying that this is going to be classic in every way or anything like that. We have what appears to be a very strong PV developing. We have an excess amount of warm water in the eastern Pacific. November 1997 hit CA hard. That won't be the case this year....the differences in the Pacific are obviously still significant, just not in a way that suggests a non-ENSO forced pattern. The CFS doesn't even bring rain to Southern California until Jan and Feb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 1982... http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd66.249.84.72.312.16.29.35.prcp.png That is just November. In a strong Nino (in this region at least) early Fall has an OVERWHELMING signal of cold. The signal becomes more mixed as the Fall progresses and into winter, but the lean is still Fall - cold, Winter - mild. But when our small sample size of strong Ninos says September is a lock to be cold, and instead it torches, right off the bat that says to me its not behaving like a "typical" El Nino. In fact, we climbed OUT of the cool pattern we have been in for such a long time at the beginning of met Fall, when strong Nino climo says the departures should turn negative. Its a funny concept to me that we can completely ignore the Fall and its very un-Nino-like ways, and just assume that winter will follow a plotted composite strong nino map. Theres no argument that if you plot all the strong Ninos the composite is milder than normal winter. BUT there are several examples of cold strong Nino winters, something I cannot say the same for regarding warm strong nino September-Octobers. Im sure those who are very confident in a mild winter will dislike this post as they do any post questioning nothing but warmth, but let me just say this. El Nino is volatile as it is, and this year is uncharted waters. I can EASILY see more snow in a mild winter than a cold one, as can anyone in northern locales, so really the cold/mild debate is of little benefit to the snow weenies in these parts. Im just pointing out observations about how this Nino is behaving like a Nina. It won't be a tundra winter buried in snow constantly like the last 2, El Nino is way too roller-coastery for that regardless of what the final temp departure is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Badfishranch Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Can someone post an anomaly map of SST's; latest current vs. same period on 1997. I have this, but sure someone can do better. Aside from the obvious deltas in the Pacific, take a look at the huge delta up around the pole. Hoping there is a better view on a different map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Can someone post an anomaly map of SST's; latest current vs. same period on 1997. I have this, but sure someone can do better. Aside from the obvious deltas in the Pacific, take a look at the huge delta up around the pole. Hoping there is a better view on a different map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utrex Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 That is just November. In a strong Nino (in this region at least) early Fall has an OVERWHELMING signal of cold. The signal becomes more mixed as the Fall progresses and into winter, but the lean is still Fall - cold, Winter - mild. But when our small sample size of strong Ninos says September is a lock to be cold, and instead it torches, right off the bat that says to me its not behaving like a "typical" El Nino. In fact, we climbed OUT of the cool pattern we have been in for such a long time at the beginning of met Fall, when strong Nino climo says the departures should turn negative. Its a funny concept to me that we can completely ignore the Fall and its very un-Nino-like ways, and just assume that winter will follow a plotted composite strong nino map. Theres no argument that if you plot all the strong Ninos the composite is milder than normal winter. BUT there are several examples of cold strong Nino winters, something I cannot say the same for regarding warm strong nino September-Octobers. Im sure those who are very confident in a mild winter will dislike this post as they do any post questioning nothing but warmth, but let me just say this. El Nino is volatile as it is, and this year is uncharted waters. I can EASILY see more snow in a mild winter than a cold one, as can anyone in northern locales, so really the cold/mild debate is of little benefit to the snow weenies in these parts. Im just pointing out observations about how this Nino is behaving like a Nina. It won't be a tundra winter buried in snow constantly like the last 2, El Nino is way too roller-coastery for that regardless of what the final temp departure is. El Niño correlation to Fall (esp. early Fall) is slim to none... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 With record breaking warmth in the Nino 4 region, the stage may be set for an extraordinary active Southern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Those are fair points, Josh. I dont have a problem with your post. For me specifically, I am only talking November. And we are in...charted...territory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 My point is that perhaps we are displaying canonical DJ anomlies already in Nov because that is simply where we are with ENSO forcing right now. So forget about the statistical confinement that you force upon yourself by binning anomalies by month and just look at the map, look at el Nino, and take where we are at face value. We're not. We're really, really not. DJ Niño anomalies: First week of Nov anomalies: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 H3 Nov anomalies are never going to look like DJ, and I already mentioned the wave amplitude difference. A smaller color scale range would be helpful too for your Nov map. In any case, see OSU's posts above and my reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 That's incredible! Holy crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 H3 Nov anomalies are never going to look like DJ. In any case, see OSU's posts above. ENSO affects the extratropics via the upper troposphere. If something looks "canonically Niñoish", it's going to be expressed there first. And yes, 300-hPa anomalies generally won't look similar in early November compared to DJ. That's the point! Seasonality isn't just a statistical artifact--there are dynamical reasons why ENSO has different impacts in different seasons. As for OSU's post, he was showing the same time period in 1997, not Dec-Jan (the time period you're arguing for). But if you'd like, I can post the ENSO regression at 500-hPa in DJ vs. the first week of Nov. 2015, instead. Hint: They still don't look anything alike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 The actual ssts in 2009, 2015, and 1997. 2015 looks a lot closer to 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 El Niño correlation to Fall (esp. early Fall) is slim to none...Well then that is quite the bit of irony then...that early Fall unanimously (until this year) was colder than normal in strong Nino Falls was a coincidence. And when El Nino "correlation begins" in winter, the results are all over the board. Again, a COMPOSITE AVERAGE is milder and drier than normal (in this area) but individual results are varied, unlike early Fall. Even in the mild winters the pattern of what months were warm and what months are cold are all over the place. And like I said, temps & snow combo in an el nino are all over the place. When you get as far south as, say DC, then I can understand being more concerned about temps. But simply for snow lovers, I can't even say which scenario I'd prefer in a strong nino (cold or mild) so I'm merely pointing out the results of actual sensible weather in our small sample size of strong nino winters past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Badfishranch Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 That doesn't open for me; anyway to post the picture itself? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 ENSO affects the extratropics via the upper troposphere. If something looks "canonically Niñoish", it's going to be expressed there first. And yes, 300-hPa anomalies generally won't look similar in early November compared to DJ. That's the point! Seasonality isn't just a statistical artifact--there are dynamical reasons why ENSO has different impacts in different seasons. As for OSU's post, he was showing the same time period in 1997, not Dec-Jan (the time period you're arguing for). But if you'd like, I can post the ENSO regression at 500-hPa in DJ vs. the first week of Nov. 2015, instead. Hint: They still don't look anything alike. Thank you Mallow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utrex Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Well then that is quite the bit of irony then...that early Fall unanimously (until this year) was colder than normal in strong Nino Falls was a coincidence. This is ironic, because: Unless you're referring to super El Niño's. I'd just like to point out that the sample size for super El Niño's is small, and thus, does not serve as a true statistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 This is ironic, because: Unless you're referring to super El Niño's. I'd just like to point out that the sample size for super El Niño's is small, and thus, does not serve as a true statistic. September alone does not make fall If they did date specific then we could really see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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