Coach McGuirk Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 The east coast is going to have a terrible snow season. Maybe in February the pattern will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 I've been saying since August this is a hybrid El Nino...& it is. Those calling this east-based have been & remain wrong. Hybrids can be tricky... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 I've been saying since August this is a hybrid El Nino...& it is. Those calling this east-based have been & remain wrong. Hybrids can be tricky... I feel like more people on here have been calling it west-based instead of east-based... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 The east coast is going to have a terrible snow season. Maybe in February the pattern will change. Well gee let's just throw the towel in now and be done with it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 On Monday all the agencies will release their update. I wonder what the Australia BOM will say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Well gee let's just throw the towel in now and be done with it... February baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 however RAINMAN did directly my assertion that !+2 has peaked and is now in decline So 40/70 may be referring to that Why won't the next KW downwelling in 1+2 in early December cause warming? In fact, 1+2 could be warmer than normal unusually late in the season! Anyway, just because a noisy region showed some variation in between KWs doesn't mean it isn't going to change again. I don't think the people throwing around the "modoki" term really have a grasp on what it means. Just because 1+2 isn't the warmest region or peaks in November doesn't really fundamentally alter the wENSO signal. 2009-10 was a very nice modoki signal, and this el Nino is far closer to 97-98 than that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Why won't the next KW downwelling in 1+2 in early December cause warming? In fact, 1+2 could be warmer than normal unusually late in the season! Anyway, just because a noisy region showed some variation in between KWs doesn't mean it isn't going to change again. I don't think the people throwing around the "modoki" term really have a grasp on what it means. Just because 1+2 isn't the warmest region or peaks in November doesn't really fundamentally alter the wENSO signal. 2009-10 was a very nice modoki signal, and this el Nino is far closer to 97-98 than that one. It will not surface in 1 & 2...it will surface in region 3, borderline 1 & 2. But 1 & 2 will warm some, but then quickly fall off as warmer waters move west. No more WWB's for this Nino, so...it peaks in DEC & then down from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 I feel like more people on here have been calling it west-based instead of east-based... I guess that's depending on what circles you converse.....my experience hasn't been that. I've constantly dealt with 97-98, east-based talk since July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Aussies just updated 11/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 It will not surface in 1 & 2...it will surface in region 3, borderline 1 & 2. But 1 & 2 will warm some, but then quickly fall off as warmer waters move west. No more WWB's for this Nino, so...it peaks in DEC & then down from there. Fair enough, but I still don't see this "modoki" thing that others are seeing. We're sitting here with canonical Nino DJ temp anomalies gripping North America already in November for god's sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Fair enough, but I still don't see this "modoki" thing that others are seeing. We're sitting here with canonical Nino DJ temp anomalies gripping North America already in November for god's sake.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Fair enough, but I still don't see this "modoki" thing that others are seeing. We're sitting here with canonical Nino DJ temp anomalies gripping North America already in November for god's sake. This is not a Modoki...but I don't say that because of warm east in Nov. Have you not looked at NOV, 2009? That was a Modoki, had a blowtorch NOV. Very cold DJF that winter. The temps right now have zip to do with what is going to transpire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 The NINO should began to collapse east to west .( You can see this on the Euro SST monthlies ) . R 3.4 and 4 should continue to rise through early/mid Dec but you can see 1.2 continues to decline . 28OCT2015 2.3 2.8 2.7 1.4 04NOV2015 2.1 2.8 2.8 1.7 Record levels . You continue to see the greatest warmth continues to spread west . The greatest slowing of the trades continue to be west of 120 ( compliments of snowlover ) . This is strong basin wide NINO , the true structure is not a Modoki , but the greatest forcing continues to show up near the D/L so it takes on a similar signature in terms of where the greatest upward motion anomalies are and that gets reflected at 500 downstream . And in terms of sensible weather that may allow a colder second half for the SE. MA and NE . This winters forcing is modeled well west of what we saw in 97 and in terms of 15 vs 97 , the differences at the surface could not be more stark . So to may be the winter .( The later the more likely IMHO ) . Below map ( compliments of Bluwewave ) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 ? he said we're seeing canonical december anomalies already in november which is true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 he said we're seeing canonical december anomalies already in november which is true Oh wow that is really impressive almost exactly the same. What do January temps correlate to in a strong nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 he said we're seeing canonical december anomalies already in november which is true that makes no sense if you are using the term canonical. A canonical Nino conforms to a set of norms, a warm Nov cannot be considered a result of a canonical Nino. The overused phrase of 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 that makes no sense if you are using the term canonical. A canonical Nino conforms to a set of norms, a warm Nov cannot be considered a result of a canonical Nino. The overused phrase of 2015.We never saw the cold Fall either this year. Cold falls are a trademark of a strong Nino, a signal MUCH stronger than the winter signal actually. Winter itself is more variable but leans mild (with a lean towards mild early, cold later). This fall has behaved like a nina, not nino, so I am not of the belief that even though there has been absolutely nothing Nino-like in terms of sensible weather, we can now start saying it's typical December pattern showing up a month early since we have entered the cold season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Oh wow that is really impressive almost exactly the same. What do January temps correlate to in a strong nino? Climo info here... http://ggweather.com/enso2014/ http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/usclimdivs/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 deniers gonna deny? I haven't made any forecast? What exactly am I denying. Great post as usual your contributions to this forum are greatly appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 he said we're seeing canonical december anomalies already in november which is true And exactly why would that be a more relevant comparison than canonical November anomalies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 that makes no sense if you are using the term canonical. A canonical Nino conforms to a set of norms, a warm Nov cannot be considered a result of a canonical Nino. The overused phrase of 2015. No, the overused phrase of 2015 is "Strong el Ninos cause cold Novembers". We're seeing canonical DJ anomalies locked in already for November. It is quite irrefutable if you take 10 seconds to look at a departure map. Apparently el Nino 2015 forgot to weight its forcing functions by statistics about Novembers past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 30C SST isotherm has notably bulged eastward to 150W over the past 2-3 weeks, helping spike those regional readings to record levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 And exactly why would that be a more relevant comparison than canonical November anomalies? Because this isn't what's happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 My point is that perhaps we are displaying canonical DJ anomlies already in Nov because that is simply where we are with ENSO forcing right now. So forget about the statistical confinement that you force upon yourself by binning anomalies by month and just look at the map, look at el Nino, and take where we are at face value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 My point is that perhaps we are displaying canonical DJ anomlies already in Nov because that is simply where we are with ENSO forcing right now. So forget about the statistical confinement that you force upon yourself by binning anomalies by month and just look at the map, look at el Nino, and take where we are at face value.I think what some are saying is that if it was cool across the country, you could also say it was behaving like a typical, canonical El Niño. It's a can't lose argument Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utrex Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 We never saw the cold Fall either this year. Cold falls are a trademark of a strong Nino, a signal MUCH stronger than the winter signal actually. Winter itself is more variable but leans mild (with a lean towards mild early, cold later). This fall has behaved like a nina, not nino, so I am not of the belief that even though there has been absolutely nothing Nino-like in terms of sensible weather, we can now start saying it's typical December pattern showing up a month early since we have entered the cold season. 1982... http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd66.249.84.72.312.16.29.35.prcp.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Perhaps we are in a coherent mjo wave and its disrupting the normal nino response. Theres suppression over the Pacific and se ridging which are not typical nino November signals and neither is the mjo wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Perhaps we are in a coherent mjo wave and its disrupting the normal nino response. Theres suppression over the Pacific and se ridging which are not typical nino November signals and neither is the mjo wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 I think what some are saying is that if it was cool across the country, you could also say it was behaving like a typical, canonical El Niño. It's a can't lose argument It's also been said that many of the cold Novembers during strong el Ninos are due to outside factors disturbing el Nino's influence. Simply matching November T anomalies to ENSO phase isn't a sufficient predictor of weather, and that method is being blown out of the water right now. It's a silly rule of thumb that has been blown out of the water and will continue to be blown out of the water all month long. This hang up on statistical averages baffles me. Besides, there have been plenty of warm Novembers during el Nino. Every event is what it is, and right now we're locked in to a classic el Nino wintertime pattern. So, it's a little earlier than aggregate statistics suggest. So what? Are we really that dependent on statistical averages binned by month that if something appears 2 or 3 weeks earlier than averages suggest, that we are reduced to mass confusion and arguing? There's so much we could talk about right now, but whether or not el Nino is dominating the pattern right now really shouldn't be one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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