2015 ENSO super thread

[csnavywx]

With changes in the global circulation this winter and early next spring, the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season could the most interesting since 2010. An emerging -PDO and a late-winter/early-spring -NAO would potentially aid in a more moist basin and a resurgent +AMO. Add an emergent La Niña reducing global AAM and you have the potential for lower shear in the Caribbean thanks to reduced forcing in the Pacific. Almost all of the most active Atlantic seasons, ACE-wise, occurred within two years of El Niño episodes. In five of the eight seasons following strong Niños (since 1950), there was an ACE increase of ≥ 33%.

A true -PDO is far from guaranteed. The 82/83 Super Nino was followed by a Nina, but featured a short-lived neutral PDO before it recovered quickly to positive.

[stuffradio]

Am I correct in thinking -PDO usually supports an increased number of Tornadoes across the US? I think I've heard about more Tornaodes happening in such years.

[Rainman]

I hope you're being sarcastic.

 

it is  OBVIOUS  that a Modiki el nino  is forming....

 

 

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

 

 

 

nino12.png

 

 

 

nino34.png

[DTWXRISK]

NO  your view is that its classic  linear thinking  --   doesnt mean that is   and it doesnt mean I am wrong
 

Classic case of linear thinking here. What is happening now cannot always be projected into the future and assumed to be truth. Nino 1+2 will see warming again from the WWB, as others have said. 

[DTWXRISK]

BIG difference between 1997-08 and  2015-16

http://blog.wdtinc.com/blog/a-tale-of-two-el-ni%C3%B1os-1997-98-and-2015-16?utm_campaign=El%20Nino%20Comparison%20-%20EB%2FDG&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook

[andyhb]

Am I correct in thinking -PDO usually supports an increased number of Tornadoes across the US? I think I've heard about more Tornaodes happening in such years.

 

+PDO (especially strong phases, like we have been in) generally favours eastern troughing with western ridging, so while it is quite variable, it is likely that -PDO does favour a somewhat increase in tornadic activity.

 

As csnavy mentioned though, 1982-83 (and then subsequently 1984) was different and predominantly featured a strong +PDO. 1984 was a deadly and quite active tornado season, however. I've had this discussion multiple times, and looking at climatological data, the winter/spring following a piggyback Nina to a Nino (years such as 1890, 1932, 1965, 1971, 1974, 1984, 1989, 1999, 2008 and 2011) have generally been average to above average (sometimes extremely above average) in activity. I'm sure some of those years I mentioned there jump off the page almost immediately. There are only a couple of outliers that were generally more quiet, like 1943 and 2006.

 

Part of this may be related to the Trans-Nino index, which is the difference between the temperatures in Nino 1+2 and Nino 4. A +TNI (i.e. temps higher in 1+2 than 4) may have a relationship with an increased potential for major tornado outbreaks in the US and sometimes occurs with an east to west decaying La Nina (i.e. temperatures warm in Nino 1+2 before anywhere else). See this paper: http://cpo.noaa.gov/sites/cpo/Webcasts/MAPP/2013/Presentations/1-15/Lee.pdf

[Rainman]

NO  your view is that its classic  linear thinking  --   doesnt mean that is   and it doesnt mean I am wrong

 

 

1+2 are nearly as warm as they ever have been during an el Nino, second only to 97-98.  Your view that it's modoki is linear, geometric, axisymmetric, asymptotic, and logarithmic thinking.

[40/70 Benchmark]

BIG difference between 1997-08 and  2015-16

http://blog.wdtinc.com/blog/a-tale-of-two-el-ni%C3%B1os-1997-98-and-2015-16?utm_campaign=El%20Nino%20Comparison%20-%20EB%2FDG&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook

Dave, thanks so much for that link.

 

This particular passage near the end  was of great interest, as I have heard some speculation that east-based el nino events are  ow an endangered species.

This implies that it may be due to global warming:

 

the warmer SSTs near and immediately east of the dateline (>30deg C) this past summer compared to 1997 (compare left sides of Fig 1 and Fig 2) is likely related to global warming. There has been increasing evidence from the refereed literature that the increase in SSTs across the western Pacific Ocean warm pool has contributed to a stronger SST gradient and cooling to the east (La Niña like).

[40/70 Benchmark]

1+2 are nearly as warm as they ever have been during an el Nino, second only to 97-98.  Your view that it's modoki is linear, geometric, axisymmetric, asymptotic, and logarithmic thinking.

R 1+2 is not at '97 levels now.

It cooled.

[hurricaneman]

R 1+2 is not at '97 levels now.

It cooled.

yes but seems to be going back up and do expect something in the +3c< range in ENSO 1-2 while I expect the ENSO 3-4 area to possibly go +3c around early December and steadily drop to Neutral by April or early May

[40/70 Benchmark]

yes but seems to be going back up and do expect something in the +3c< range in ENSO 1-2 while I expect the ENSO 3-4 area to possibly go +3c around early December and steadily drop to Neutral by April or early May

Doesn't matter.

 

R 1.2 peaked, and it is not now, not has it ever been completely in par with 1997....what is my one and only point.

[The_Global_Warmer]

yes but seems to be going back up and do expect something in the +3c< range in ENSO 1-2 while I expect the ENSO 3-4 area to possibly go +3c around early December and steadily drop to Neutral by April or early May

[thunderbolt]

yes but seems to be going back up and do expect something in the +3c< range in ENSO 1-2 while I expect the ENSO 3-4 area to possibly go +3c around early December and steadily drop to Neutral by April or early May

can you please show region 4

[The_Global_Warmer]

Doesn't matter.

R 1.2 peaked, and it is not now, not has it ever been completely in par with 1997....what is my one and only point.

Which has never been in dispute.

The poster you replied to said nothing of the sort.

What he said was factually correct.

And refutting some absurd notion of a modoki nino when enso 1-2 is 2nd highest on record goes without saying.

Also abother peak looks likely

[The_Global_Warmer]

can you please show region 4

[PB GFI]

Unlike 97 , when we collapsed west to east this year the edges will cool 1st .  Dave`s point of a hybrid Modoki has merit .  3 and 3.4 may continue to warm trough mid Dec the edge don`t have to be " cold " to accomplish a Modoki style forcing .

 

The edges end up cooler relative to averages then the central portion of the basin . 

 

The furthest east in the forcing is the CFS  as it pins at 160 . Both the SST analog and Euro J -M  force at the D/L which is similar  to a Modoki style forcing .

 

Not a true Modoki , but if the net effect at 500 is the same the idea is a good one . The  recent MJO  related push east of the forcing heads right back to where  we have verified for most of the year and where the guidance suggests we stay this winter. 

 

 

[thunderbolt]

can you please show region 4

thank you

[griteater]

Latest 30 day from Allan's SST anoms.  He uses real time, high resolution data from NCEP: http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_low_res/

 

[griteater]

MEI took a slight dip...not uncommon in other strong ninos

 

 

 

From MEI update:

 

"With the MEI indicating continuing strong El Niño conditions, one can find a long list of key anomalies in the MEI component fields that exceed or equal one standard deviation, or one sigma (compare to loadings figure). Every one of them flags El Niño rather than La Niña conditions.

 

Significant positive anomalies (coinciding with high positive loadings) indicate very high sea level pressure anomalies (P) northwest of Australia, westerly wind anomalies (U) along the Equator and centered on the dateline, very strong southerly wind anomalies (V) northeast of Australia, very high sea surface (S) and air temperatures (A) anomalies over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and enhanced cloudiness © over the southern tropical Pacific near the dateline. While all six fields show anomalies in excess of one standard deviations, the number of two sigma anomaly fields has dropped from six last month to four this month (both zonal winds and cloudiness are now less extreme). Significant negative anomalies (coinciding with high negative loadings) continue very strong over the eastern equatorial Pacific for sea level pressure (P). Easterly wind anomalies (U) are prominent off the coast of Central America and over the South China Sea. Increased northerly anomalies have become very strong (V) southeast of Hawai'i. Anomalously cold air temperatures (A) east of Australia round out this picture." 

[griteater]

Updated through October...

 

[griteater]

30 day anomaly change

 

[DTWXRISK]

 GREAT IMAGE

 

 

Updated through October...

 

 

[DTWXRISK]

GRITEATER  post  above   shows  that you point  about  el nino 1997 98  shows that in fact it is YOU that engaged   in linear thinking 

 

Here is the point    --      REGION 1+2  is cooling off   fast   which is placing  the main  warmth  in effect much further  west .  yes  WWB     may  warm  1+2 back  up to previous levels

maybe  



 

1+2 are nearly as warm as they ever have been during an el Nino, second only to 97-98.  Your view that it's modoki is linear, geometric, axisymmetric, asymptotic, and logarithmic thinking.

[DTWXRISK]

 however RAINMAN  did  directly my assertion that  !+2  has peaked and is now in decline  So 40/70   may be referring to that 
 

 

Which has never been in dispute.

The poster you replied to said nothing of the sort.



What he said was factually correct.

And refutting some absurd notion of a modoki nino when enso 1-2 is 2nd highest on record goes without saying.
WRONG

Also abother peak looks likely

[DTWXRISK]

 data not matching

 

[DTWXRISK]

AUSSIE  DATA   which in my opinion is   the best data  on enso in the world     hase enso region   1  = +1.39   with a  
PEAK of  +2.02    sept 27    and  +1.99c   OCT 4

 

In  enso region 2   they have it  at  2.07    with a   Peak on OCT 11    of  +2.17   

[OSUmetstud]

The official data is closer to tropical tidbits

[DTWXRISK]

yeah I know   and that is what worries me...   FWIW  I have been using  allan'S  and the aussies  data  for a while.

I avoid   using CPC  weekly  enso  data   like  a  bad dose  of the clap .

 

The official data is closer to tropical tidbits

[AlaskaETC]

That graph definitely shows similarities to 1972-1973. DCA got 0.1 inches that year.

[Snow_Miser]

That graph definitely shows similarities to 1972-1973. DCA got 0.1 inches that year.

 

The distribution and intensity of ENSO I think could be similar to 72-73 for the upcoming winter. But 72-73 also had a cold NPAC and a -PDO. So there aren't too many similarities to that year besides ENSO.