bkviking Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 This thread is pretty quiet for an El Niño ready to go down in the books as one of the strongest on record. NY regional thread on El Niño is top notch - it's pretty much the board's main thread on the topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 And here is a link for convenient access: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46340-possible-strongsuper-el-ni%C3%B1o-forming/page-63#entry3724636 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 All the special snowflakes are on the regional boards wishcasting the Nino away for winredter. $$$$$$$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 18, 2015 Share Posted October 18, 2015 Notice how the westerly wind burst has trended west as we get closer...at first it was pretty strong near 120W, but it's verifying weaker and the more potent areas are showing up around 150-160W...similar to what we saw in early October. This is the image from several days ago that was posted in the NYC forum: The verification around 120W was weaker than the forecast. It has been doing this quite a bit over the life cycle of this Nino. We'll have to see if this one actually makes it closer to 120W stronger than forecast for once...it hasn't thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 19, 2015 Share Posted October 19, 2015 Mid-October IRI plume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Pretty awesome maps right here that organize all El Nino Types with Temp/Precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Those maps show how much variety there can be in El Nino winters. The only obvious trends in the stronger El Ninos are the enhanced precipitation in the Gulf Coast and Southeast and above normal temperatures in the Northern Plains. Other than that, the rest of the country exhibits more variation than people expect. 72-73 was an interesting exception with a very cold pattern in the West and Northern Rockies. December 1972 had a record breaking arctic outbreak out west. Snowfall was only 2.8" in NYC, but there were several missed opportunities that gave the Southeast heavy snowfall in February 1973. Interesting to see a -PNA pattern prevail in a super El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Those maps show how much variety there can be in El Nino winters. The only obvious trends in the stronger El Ninos are the enhanced precipitation in the Gulf Coast and Southeast and above normal temperatures in the Northern Plains. Other than that, the rest of the country exhibits more variation than people expect. 72-73 was an interesting exception with a very cold pattern in the West and Northern Rockies. December 1972 had a record breaking arctic outbreak out west. Snowfall was only 2.8" in NYC, but there were several missed opportunities that gave the Southeast heavy snowfall in February 1973. Interesting to see a -PNA pattern prevail in a super El Nino. 72-73 is not on the same level as this El Nino or any of the strongest ones in the same class as the current event has reached. This is a big one near the level of a 97-98, 82-83 and if you want to get flashy, 1877-78...From an MEI standpoint, 2015 is clicking on every variable, and for that reason has significantly higher values (latest AugSep MEI +2.5 and probably havent peaked yet) than 72 ever reached (peaking 1.8 in the summer months)...2015-16 is much more likely to look like a canonical strong Nino for the Conus than what happened in 72-73. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 72-73 was very odd in that it had a strong -PDO and an overall chilly Pacific in combination with its pretty strong El Nino, which probably helped to mitigate some of the El Nino forcing. It's going to be pretty hard to ever have anything come close to replicating that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 72-73 was very odd in that it had a strong -PDO and an overall chilly Pacific in combination with its pretty strong El Nino, which probably helped to mitigate some of the El Nino forcing. It's going to be pretty hard to ever have anything come close to replicating that again.We can only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 Latest 30 day animation very much supports the idea of a basin wide event http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/animation_current/ssta_animation_30day_large.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Past 7 day trend, ENSO 1.2 down, ENSO 3+4 up. The cold pool south of the GOA is weakening... anomalies dropping in W Pacific... +PDO staying strong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 it is OBVIOUS that a Modiki el nino is forming.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Is it not obvious that R1.2 will see another round warming in about a month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 27, 2015 Author Share Posted October 27, 2015 Is it not obvious that R1.2 will see another round warming in about a month? possibly but it might go into -numbers before a sharp rise again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 This is my first post! I'm here because I'm trying to follow everything ENSO related. I'm very interested in watching the ENSO decline in negative territory. I'm dying for Snow, and the local mountains are also dying for snow. Last winter I had 1 inch of snow from November to now, and that 1 inch came last November. The last good event in my area was Jan 2012, and the time before that was 2008. Green Christmases are the norm here, so I'm always looking for snow events in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 possibly but it might go into -numbers before a sharp rise again Thanks for the feedback...honest question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Does anyone happen to have a chart for 97-98 or all strong ninos in fact for a SST anom like they have on CPC showing progression? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Does anyone happen to have a chart for 97-98 or all strong ninos in fact for a SST anom like they have on CPC showing progression? Are you looking for a specific static image or animation of the overall evolution? Welcome to AmWx BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Are you looking for a specific static image or animation of the overall evolution? Welcome to AmWx BTW. preferably static and thank you been on here a while in school just never made an account. Somethng like this but of any strong and moderate el ninos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 it is OBVIOUS that a Modiki el nino is forming.... cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png nino12.png nino34.png Classic case of linear thinking here. What is happening now cannot always be projected into the future and assumed to be truth. Nino 1+2 will see warming again from the WWB, as others have said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 preferably static and thank you been on here a while in school just never made an account. Somethng like this but of any strong and moderate el ninos. Weekly SST anomalies HERE Depth of SST anomalies HERE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Classic case of linear thinking here. What is happening now cannot always be projected into the future and assumed to be truth. Nino 1+2 will see warming again from the WWB, as others have said. how much warming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Weekly SST anomalies HERE Depth of SST anomalies HERE Im sorry i mean of past events are there charts similar to these where we can see the progression of these anomalies for 97-98, 82-83, 09-10, etc. Just to be able to see how these past events worked, given we can find wind data and match up how things progressed. It would be really interesting to see how these other events unfolded if the data is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Im sorry i mean of past events are there charts similar to these where we can see the progression of these anomalies for 97-98, 82-83, 09-10, etc. Just to be able to see how these past events worked, given we can find wind data and match up how things progressed. It would be really interesting to see how these other events unfolded if the data is there. This site has time longitude plots back to 1979 (bottom section of the page) - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/pentad.shtml Here's one from 1997: zonal wind stress / SST anomalies / 20 deg C isotherm depth anomaly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 This site has time longitude plots back to 1979 (bottom section of the page) - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/pentad.shtml Here's one from 1997: zonal wind stress / SST anomalies / 20 deg C isotherm depth anomaly Much appreciated and thanks for the help guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Has anyone looked at SCRIPPS? It has the SSTs approaching neutral/negative by JJA anad Nina by SON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Has anyone looked at SCRIPPS? It has the SSTs approaching neutral/negative by JJA anad Nina by SON. Yeah, actually a flip to a strong Niña is not out of the question. Happens in strong Nino events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Has anyone looked at SCRIPPS? It has the SSTs approaching neutral/negative by JJA anad Nina by SON. There are a lot of models showing something along these lines. Most strong Ninos have been followed by a Nina the winter afterwards of varying strengths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 There are a lot of models showing something along these lines. Most strong Ninos have been followed by a Nina the winter afterwards of varying strengths. With changes in the global circulation this winter and early next spring, the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season could the most interesting since 2010. An emerging -PDO and a late-winter/early-spring -NAO would potentially aid in a more moist basin and a resurgent +AMO. Add an emergent La Niña reducing global AAM and you have the potential for lower shear in the Caribbean thanks to reduced forcing in the Pacific. Almost all of the most active Atlantic seasons, ACE-wise, occurred within two years of El Niño episodes. In five of the eight seasons following strong Niños (since 1950), there was an ACE increase of ≥ 33%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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