Gilbertfly Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 wow...is that just clipper snow?? Clipper 15Z Plume for DKB is 7.5-ish via the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 This looks like something to look forward too. I think Channel 7 is being a bit bullish with the 8.6 to 9.1 call... but I will go with 6" .... Cheryl Scott could call for rain and 35 and I'd still get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 wow...is that just clipper snow?? Clipper 15Z Plume for DKB is 7.5-ish via the mean Negative, as Gilbert eluded to. I got twitchy and excited and did not separate out the two storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 fast....but some rippage looks on the table... via the 4k NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Locked and loaded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 0z NAM through 42 looks a bit stronger out west. And looks like it might be going north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Locked and loaded Saturday night post. Always a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Big move north on the NAM. Should be a good hit for MSN, MKE, Geos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 0z NAM through 42 looks a bit stronger out west. And looks like it might be going north... Seems like it might kinda end up similar to 18z but we'll see. BTW, should get some good RAOB sampling of this wave for the 00z runs tomorrow night and especially the 12z Monday runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Seems like it might kinda end up similar to 18z but we'll see. BTW, should get some good RAOB sampling of this wave for the 00z runs tomorrow night and especially the 12z Monday runs. 500mb shortwave is definitely more impressive-looking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Complete whiff for here on this run. Good for the southern WI/northern IL/Michigan folks though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Big move north on the NAM. Should be a good hit for MSN, MKE, Geos. Not really that big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 500mb shortwave is definitely more impressive-looking... Yeah it is. Precip axis doesn't look terribly different compared to 18z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Not really that big. Decent enough. Also depends on one's perspective or location...like mine. Even then, look at places like MSP, MKE, and GRB this run compared to the 12z edition. 12z NAM 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Yeah it is. Precip axis doesn't look terribly different compared to 18z so far. It did shift northward a bit, but not a drastic change in placement. It's much wetter than the 18z run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Slight bump north of 18z run but still 9" along and north of I-88 and now we have an 11-12" area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Would this be a situation where the nam might actually do a decent job? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Decent enough. Also depends on one's perspective or location...like mine. Even then, look at places like MSP, MKE, and GRB this run compared to the 12z edition. 12z NAM 12z nam.gif 0z NAM 0z nam.gif Definitely more generous with snow farther north, but that's maybe a 30 mile shift north in placement of the southern edge. Has big implications for anyone near the edge but not that big of a shift distance wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Only real negative for these higher totals being spit out is the quick nature of the clipper. The NAM will handle the bandling better though and were now seeing consecutive and somewhat larger 3hr QPF amounts of .25" liquid...add to that the high ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Would this be a situation where the nam might actually do a decent job? I would say yes. Only thing I can think of is that it's sometimes too aggressive with the WAA and causes the band to be modeled too far north compared to what actually verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Definitely more generous with snow farther north, but that's maybe a 30 mile shift north in placement of the southern edge. Has big implications for anyone near the edge but not that big of a shift distance wise. Admire the optimism, but man we were on the far southern reaches on the 12z run. 30 miles north, like this run, gets us 14 flakes and overcast. Eh, we'll see what happens I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Admire the optimism, but man we were on the far southern reaches on the 12z run. 30 miles north, like this run, gets us 14 flakes and overcast. Eh, we'll see what happens I guess. You know me, optimistic by default. No doubt I'd rather be farther north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Admire the optimism, but man we were on the far southern reaches on the 12z run. 30 miles north, like this run, gets us 14 flakes and overcast. Eh, we'll see what happens I guess. Yea...can't put any lipstick on this pig of a run for us on the southern flank. Only hope is that the 48+hr nam is being the 48+hr nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 You know me, optimistic by default. No doubt I'd rather be farther north... Honestly, I never had high hopes for it in our hood. Hopefully we just don't get shutout completely. An inch isn't too much too ask for I don't think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 0z Hi Res NAM is south of reg NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 0z Hi Res NAM is south of reg NAM. That snow map is nuts (tropical tidbits...not even gonna post it lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 ^beat me to it. As usual it's wetter too. A small blip of .50" liquid in 3hrs in northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Would this be a situation where the nam might actually do a decent job? This is a setup where the NAM should actually do pretty well. Like T'Snow said, WAA might be overdone and a little too north, but overall we're in a good spot. Not the best spot, but still pretty good. I guess one potential negative might be how damn cold it's going to be. Difficult to get decent sized flakes when temps are below 0. We'll be adding to the snowpack regardless of where this thing goes. How much snow did you get last weekend out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 That snow map is nuts (tropical tidbits...not even gonna post it lol). About 3-6" of snow from this is contaminated by the ongoing storm, but even then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 SREF plumes for MSP are ridiculous. Mean is now up to about 12" thru 06z 1/6 with a whopper of a big dog at 22". A cluster of 8 around 15" or greater. Lmao. Free Saturday night entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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