Chitown Storm Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Not worried about a wiff to the south? Not yet. Don't think we'll wiff on this although the heaviest totals will fall south of us. I would prefer not to see any major shift south though just to be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 looks like euro held serve to 00z...possibly a bit drier on the northern flanks...and if you want to literally split hairs...a hair south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 A little jog south on the 12z Euro. But, also a bit weaker compared to its 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 First call for yyz: DAB lol. You haven't commented once in the main thread about the luscious snow we're experiencing right now. Enjoy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 looks like euro held serve to 00z...possibly a bit drier on the northern flanks...and if you want to literally split hairs...a hair south.Up to like 6 mm so little better for us here in central oh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Euro with a stripe of .25-.4" precip across S. MN, N. IA, SW WI, N. IL, NW IN...should be good for 4-6 across the area...but it does have a Geos screwhole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 18z NAM is a bit north of the 12z run by 51hr, also wetter, larger area of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 18z NAM looks like its holding serve with the track but also looks wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 10-11" bullseye around DBQ/FEP on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 LOT ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND PHASE WITH THE POLAR JET AND BEGIN RACING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE EAST TO THE LOWER LAKE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. GENERALLY LOOKING AT PRETTY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WRT TO THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP BAND LAYS OUT WITH THE ECMWF SHIFTING SOUTH AND GFS NORTH A BIT...BOTH CONVERGING ON NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SYSTEM IS STILL OFFSHORE...SO CAN'T RULE OUT SOME MODELS CHANGES IN THE NEXT RUN OR TWO...BUT GIVEN THE LONG TRACK RECORD OF A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOLUTION IN THE MODELS I WOULD BE A LITTLE SURPRISED TO SEE ANY BIG ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK...BUT AS ARCTIC HIGH #1 PUSHES EAST WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THIS LOW LIKELY RESULTING IN TEMPS REMAINING STEADY/SLOWLY RISING MONDAY NIGHT WITH MONDAY'S HIGH TEMP PROBABLY OCCURRING LATE MONDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON LAYING DOWN A SWATH OF MAX QPF BETWEEN A QUARTER TO A LITTLE OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS REMAINING A BIT HIGHER IN THE QPF DEPT WITH A MAX OVER 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (DGZ) DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH T/H CROSS SECTIONS LARGELY FOCUS THE STRONGEST ASCENT ABOVE THE DGZ. PREDICTING AND EVEN MEASURING SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS IS NEVER EASY...BUT CERTAINLY THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT RATIOS WILL BE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND LARGELY RAN WITH 15-20:1 IN THE GRIDS YIELDING A LARGE SWATH OF 3-6" OF SNOW ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT SO BLOWING/DRIFTING DOESN'T LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE WITH SYSTEM LOOKING TO BE A SOLID...POTENTIALLY HIGH END...ADVISORY EVENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 18z NAM looks like its holding serve with the track but also looks wetter. it is a touch north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Wow, now DTX mentions 25-1 ratios. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE NEXT SYSTEMTHAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THISSYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SPINNING SOUTH OF ALASKA...AND WILL DIVE THROUGHWESTERN CANADA AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEK.ISENTROPIC ASCENT LOOKS TO PEAK OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE MONDAYNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE WAVE TRACKS NEAR THEOHIO BORDER AND THE MID-LEVEL WAVE CROSSES OVERHEAD. VERY COLD AIRAND LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE WILL AID IN KEEPING SNOW RATIOS VERYHIGH...AS HIGH AS 25:1. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA ALSO SHOW AFAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF SATURATION...AND THINK WE WILL SEE A QUICKACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 NICHES OF SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ANDPERHAPS CLOSER TO 4 NEAR THE OHIO BORDER WHERE FORCING WILL BE ALITTLE STRONGER ALONG AN ELEVATED FRONT. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TOWATCH THIS SYSTEM UNFOLD HOWEVER...AND THESE AMOUNTS ARE APT TOCHANGE. Im inclined to go somewhere between powerball & the NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Wow, now DTX mentions 25-1 ratios. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SPINNING SOUTH OF ALASKA...AND WILL DIVE THROUGH WESTERN CANADA AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEK. ISENTROPIC ASCENT LOOKS TO PEAK OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE WAVE TRACKS NEAR THE OHIO BORDER AND THE MID-LEVEL WAVE CROSSES OVERHEAD. VERY COLD AIR AND LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE WILL AID IN KEEPING SNOW RATIOS VERY HIGH...AS HIGH AS 25:1. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA ALSO SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF SATURATION...AND THINK WE WILL SEE A QUICK ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 NICHES OF SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND PERHAPS CLOSER TO 4 NEAR THE OHIO BORDER WHERE FORCING WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER ALONG AN ELEVATED FRONT. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM UNFOLD HOWEVER...AND THESE AMOUNTS ARE APT TO CHANGE. Im inclined to go somewhere between powerball & the NWS Wouldn't doubt those ratios actually. Might not be super duper cold at the surface, but soundings indicate temperatures not getting above -10 even as low as 950mb! Temps hover between -15 to -20 as you climb altitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 15z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 ARX putting up winter storm watch for Rochester and points S and E. Looking like a solid high end advisory here unless the NAM was to verify, then snow totals might be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 18z GFS looks a touch south with the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 Looks 2mb stronger and a nudge north at 57hr to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 If I were reed timmer....extreme alberta clipper chaser extraordinaire....I would be targeting NE IA....looks like a decent chunk of the subforum gets in on the goods here....clearly there will be some bigger winners in the lollipops... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 18z PGFS holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 DVN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...QUICK HITTING ALBERTA CLIPPER TO BRING A SOLID ADVISORY CRITERIA (3-6 INCHES) OF SNOW ACROSS ROUGHLY OUR NORTHERN HALF MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON LSR/S WHICH FOR NOW WILL USE 20:1. THERE IS MODERATE TO STRONG FORCING AND 300 MB DEPTH OF DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOWFALL. CONFIDENCE NOT YET THERE TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AS MODELS ARE UNDECIDED ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF/GFS HITS OUR NORTH HALF WHILE THE NAM SUGGESTS HIGHWAY 20...WHILE THE GEM COVERS OUR ENTIRE CWA. THE ONE THING IN OUR FAVOR SHOULD BE LIGHT WINDS DURING THE EVENT. THE SNOW QUICKLY ENDS BY SUNRISE TUESDAY BUT THE WINDS CRANK UP DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 15Z plumer with roughly 6.5 for JOT for this event on the Mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 IWX's take. Seems respectable LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK MONDAY AND SHIFT ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECTINTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MICHIGAN COUNTIES. INVERSION DROPPING TO2KFT OR LESS WITH DRYING SO EXPECT MOST ACCUMS TO BRIEFLY END. FASTMOVING NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THEN THE NEXT FOCUS MONDAY NIGHT INTOTUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OFF THE BC COAST.IT WILL BEGIN TO GET INGESTED INTO THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ANDRACE ACROSS THE CONUS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWAN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHTWITH A 150+ KNOT JET STREAK OVER CENTRAL INDIANA BY 12Z TUE. IF THISVERIFIES UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL BE SITUATED OVER OUR CWA WHILESTRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE CONVERGE ADVECTS NORTHWARD. THISCOMBINATION ALONG WITH MIXING RATIOS OF 1 TO 2 G/KG AND SNOW RATIOSOF AT LEAST 20 TO 1 COULD PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH SNOW OVERMOST OF CWA WITH A NARROW BAND OF 4 TO 8 POSSIBLE. 12Z GUIDANCE TRENDEDFURTHER SOUTH WITH SFC LOW BUT ALSO WEAKER. THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE AWARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WITH HELP FROM UPPER KINEMATICS...AND THEWORD WARM IS RELATIVE AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN AT -10C OR COLDER.SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A LARGE DRY AREA ALOFT BUT QUICKLY SATURATESMONDAY EVENING. ALWAYS LEARY WITH THESE SITUATIONS AS IT SOMETIMESTAKES LONGER TO SATURATE THAN MODELS DEPICT. HOWEVER...WITH GOODMODEL AGREEMENT ON FORCING...QPF AND LOCATION...FELT IT PRUDENT TOBUMP POPS FURTHER WITH CATEGORICAL EVERYWHERE LATE MONDAY NIGHT ANDGO WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR NOW IN GRIDS. SOME TYPE OF HEADLINE WILLMOST LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE TRACK IS NAILED DOWN. Feeling confident with this one. This may be the first decent snowmaker for most of the subfourm. Looks like some decent wind will come in afterwards and create a blowing snow and wind chill problem as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 quite a few of the gfs ensembles still north of the OP with the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 This looks like something to look forward too. I think Channel 7 is being a bit bullish with the 8.6 to 9.1 call... but I will go with 6" .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 A little jog south on the 12z Euro. But, also a bit weaker compared to its 0z run. We need to get that QC to LAF clipper magic going like we had back in 09 or 10. Still too early for a first call for me, but I'm liking what some of you guys have mentioned about a nice 3-6" band with isolated higher amounts setting up with this. Could be a very sharp cutoff on the southern end, which is always a bit scary if you're riding the southern area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 We need to get that QC to LAF clipper magic going like we had back in 09 or 10. Still too early for a first call for me, but I'm liking what some of you guys have mentioned about a nice 3-6" band with isolated higher amounts setting up with this. Could be a very sharp cutoff on the southern end, which is always a bit scary if you're riding the southern area. I have a good feeling this ends your 6" drought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I have a good feeling this ends your 6" drought That'd be cool. At this point I'll be happy just getting some decent powder down. Of course if we end up with 5.2" and a county north gets over 6" I'd probably end up getting a bit pissed lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 bust'n out the sref plumes for CMH..... mean is 3", max is 6.2" Better than I thought.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 bust'n out the sref plumes for CMH..... mean is 3", max is 6.2" Better than I thought.... Just glanced at the ones for Dkb, 9.78" mean, high of 15", low of 3" for the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Just glanced at the ones for Dkb, 9.78" mean, high of 15", low of 3" for the next few days wow...is that just clipper snow?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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