Chitown Storm Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 should be a first for me on Monday night. Not sure I've ever seen a nice thump of snow with temps at -5F. Heavy snow wording now in the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 If Stebo ever becomes a mod, I quit americanwx. I am sorry should I have left that eternally pessimistic post as it was especially since it was so filled with sound reasoning. It is funny he mentions recent trends being downward yet the GFS has shifted north 2 successive runs in a row and the Euro once it found the clipper has locked on to the same solution for 2 days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 should be a first for me on Monday night. Not sure I've ever seen a nice thump of snow with temps at -5F. Heavy snow wording now in the point. /\ that would be WILD.... -5 and heavy snow....! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I am sorry should I have left that eternally pessimistic post as it was especially since it was so filled with sound reasoning. It is funny he mentions recent trends being downward yet the GFS has shifted north 2 successive runs in a row and the Euro once it found the clipper has locked on to the same solution for 2 days now. Yeah. If we want to pick the furthest south model and then go 10-1 ratio...sure...1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 should be a first for me on Monday night. Not sure I've ever seen a nice thump of snow with temps at -5F. Heavy snow wording now in the point. Not worried about a wiff to the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 ggem still weak and south, practically whiffs chicago and Michigan. A year ago I might have wondered about a coupe...this year the ggem is nothing more than a lol outlier. Yeah that is very strange. It has just not picked up on this clipper that the GFS has had for a good week now. Some runs have it, but its always the weakest of any model, and a lot of its ensembles have nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I am sorry should I have left that eternally pessimistic post as it was especially since it was so filled with sound reasoning. It is funny he mentions recent trends being downward yet the GFS has shifted north 2 successive runs in a row and the Euro once it found the clipper has locked on to the same solution for 2 days now. dmc has a track record of being a reasonable poster. It was a flippant comment that we all make from time to time. Go have a bull shot or whatever your drink of choice is. Relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Yeah that is very strange. It has just not picked up on this clipper that the GFS has had for a good week now. Some runs have it, but its always the weakest of any model, and a lot of its ensembles have nothing. GEM is going to be the worst because it is not correctly modeling the LLJ which when incorrectly modeled weak it would lead to falsely low snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 gfs came a little north. still liking a euro track overall. I expect the ggem to start caving north in the next couple runs. This just hasn't had that south trend feeling from the beginning even though southern-trending clippers are common. still think a 1-2" event along i-70, (probably closer to 2 imby)....probably snow advisory with a row of counties north of that with 3-6" in the northern parts of Ohio. I saw txt output of last night's euro at 5 mm, which is about 0.2 inches. That would be 2 inches at 10:1 ratios so w/ higher ratios we'd be looking at like 3-4, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 dmc has a track record of being a reasonable poster. It was a flippant comment that we all make from time to time. Go have a bull shot or whatever your drink of choice is. Relax. I disagree, as he always does this when the better amounts aren't exactly in his backyard which is going to be the case anyways on this one. However he is incorrect in his idea that the amounts will be that low as only one terrible model is showing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I saw txt output of last night's euro at 5 mm, which is about 0.2 inches. That would be 2 inches at 10:1 ratios so w/ higher ratios we'd be looking at like 3-4, no? well that's interesting, didn't realize it was that much. But yea, I guess with ratios you'd be right. Let's hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 12z Uncle or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 12z Uncle or bust. uk.gif Congrats on your 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 We should collectively agree to not even allow GGEM to be posted or discussed. That would solve a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Congrats on your 8" Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 12z Uncle or bust. uk.gif You can't hate where we're at if you take a blend...and it was nice to see the 00z Euro bump things up a little. Still liking our chances even if the heaviest ends up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I am sorry should I have left that eternally pessimistic post as it was especially since it was so filled with sound reasoning. It is funny he mentions recent trends being downward yet the GFS has shifted north 2 successive runs in a row and the Euro once it found the clipper has locked on to the same solution for 2 days now. looks like it might have expanded south some... the last 2 runs on the GFS my total has went up fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 We should collectively agree to not even allow GGEM to be posted or discussed. That would solve a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 nogaps.png ok now you're just prodding Stebo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 If Stebo ever becomes a mod, I quit americanwx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 looks like it might have expanded south some... the last 2 runs on the GFS my total has went up fwiw. You have to look at the qpf shield, not just whats in your backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 First call for Detroit is 1-4" total snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 First call for Detroit is 1-4" total snowfall... Quite the range, but not a bad idea at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Also, to add, a lot of people are being too gung-ho with the "ratios look good" calls this far out. Average snow-to-liquid ratios in our region are in the ball park of 12:1, and we have seen situations where they end up being lower (1/21/12 for example), as it all depends on where the best lift and moisture sets up aloft. So as much as the "pessimism" may bother some, expecting snowfall totals with unusually high ratios such as 20:1 or 25:1 is just as bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Many of the 12z GFS ensembles appear north of the OP, Im guessing the mean may have bumped north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Let's be clear. NOBODY out weenie models me....capice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Also, to add, a lot of people are being too gung-ho with the "ratios look good" calls this far out. Average snow-to-liquid ratios in our region are in the ball park of 12:1, and we have seen situations where they end up being lower (1/21/12 for example), as it all depends on where the best lift and moisture sets up aloft. So as much as the "pessimistic" comments may bother some, expecting snowfall totals with unrealistic expectations such as 20:1 or 25:1 ratios is just as bad... Not everybody is going to get 20-25:1 ratios with this, so if everyone who gets snow is expecting that then they will probably be disappointed. But signals are strong for a corridor of high ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 We should collectively agree to not even allow GGEM to be posted or discussed. That would solve a lot. It's forecast guidance that, believe or not, actually performs fairly well compared to many models. Why shouldn't it be posted or discussed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Also, to add, a lot of people are being too gung-ho with the "ratios look good" calls this far out. Average snow-to-liquid ratios in our region are in the ball park of 12:1, and we have seen situations where they end up being lower (1/21/12 for example), as it all depends on where the best lift and moisture sets up aloft. So as much as the "pessimism" may bother some, expecting snowfall totals with unusually high ratios such as 20:1 or 25:1 is just as bad... 25-1 is really a stretch, but Im not sure 15 or 20-1 is. I do remember the 1/21/12 clipper and how it busted because everyone banked on ratios when it ended up 10-1 due to the sandy nature of the snow with temps in teens (not to even mention the irony of that kind of snow happening in that torch winter). I also remember a snow in 2009, a very minor one of about an inch or so, where temps were barely above zero and we had like 8 or 9 to 1 ratio snow because it was pure snow dust (though there was a deep snowpack in place so it wasnt a big deal). However...I have been doing the liquid equivalent in my snow since 2000, and we have had many 15 or 20-1 ratio snows that werent lake effect (heck lake effect can be 30 or sometimes 40 to 1 lol). Basically the devil will be in the detalils, but its not unrealistic to think that ratios will be anywhere from 12 to 20-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 First call for yyz: DAB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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