Stebo Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Can probably double that if you a little more. 25:1 seems like a good first guess ratio right now. I would probably go 20:1 at this point just because 25:1 is pretty exceptional. By the way note which model of the global models is the furthest north on this one just like it had been the furthest east with the current system. I would ride the Euro at this range, and let all the other models waver back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I would probably go 20:1 at this point just because 25:1 is pretty exceptional. By the way note which model of the global models is the furthest north on this one just like it had been the furthest east with the current system. I would ride the Euro at this range, and let all the other models waver back and forth. Don't think that's a fair comparison since these are 2 completely different types of systems. Besides Euro is still playing catch up with this as eveident by the increase in snow amounts with each run. As i said earlier GFS appears to have the best handle on this IMO. It's been basically rock steady for days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 lol. When was your last optimistic post? People losing it over one set of runs Probably this summer or early fall, the weather has been pretty dismal since, constant boredom, and generally cloudy and cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 If you want to get really picky about it (I wouldn't advise, but it's interesting to look over nonetheless), the energy which will make up our clipper was barely 'sampled', if you really want to call it that. Using the UCAR Alaska radiosonde chart, and comparing to 500mb vorticity maps as of 0z tonight, it looks like a lone site on the island just south of the western mainland got a shot to diagnose the system in tonight's balloon launch. Compare for yourself: Something that's always troubled me is the effect, if any, of these early sampling events on the models. Could they predict the eventual track of the storm due to that 'mini-sampling'? Or is it of little to no consequence? This event might be a good test of the theory; we saw guidance generally make a move southward (mainly the GFS duo and Euro) with tonight's 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I would probably go 20:1 at this point just because 25:1 is pretty exceptional. By the way note which model of the global models is the furthest north on this one just like it had been the furthest east with the current system. I would ride the Euro at this range, and let all the other models waver back and forth. The problem is that 'king' didn't even have the storm until a few runs ago. Now that it does have it, though, maybe we can trust it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 6z NAM shifted south a little bit and looks pretty similr to the Euro as far as track. Still jucier though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 Nice jump south for sure. 6-10" swath from southeast MN to Chicago The NAM will probably be highest on amounts as it will handle banding better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 06z GFS/PGFS maintain similar track to the 00z versions. GFS looks even juicier. Iowa gets smoked. EDIT: Looks like this scale is based on around 20:1 LSR, which seems pretty reasonable given soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Wisconsinwx needs to take a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Axis of heaviest.....Chicago to Akron. Still a couple inches poss Indy to cmh on the south and up to I-96 on the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Axis of heaviest.....Chicago to Akron. Still a couple inches poss Indy to cmh on the south and up to I-96 on the north. So you're liking the NAM over YBY GFS and GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Checked out the SREF plumes for MSP as morning entertainment. Mean is about 8" thru Tuesday night with quite a few big dogs over 12". Wouldn't doubt if ratios are 20:1 or higher with a sweet dgz setting up. Still 5" on the ground from last Saturday. Finally a spread the wealth event we should all enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 So you're liking the NAM over YBY GFS and GGEM? I like the Nam adjusted south a bit....I think the Nam is too dry on the south end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I like the Nam adjusted south a bit....I think the Nam is too dry on the south end FWIW, 12z NAM did come south slightly, more in line with your thinking. Still showing a sharp cut off along I 70. EDIT: IWX is bullish and spitting out amounts, "...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED BY MID DAY TUESDAY." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Someone needs to tell her it's not the polar vortex next week...when it's really a strong arctic high originating from western Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 FWIW, 12z NAM did come south slightly, more in line with your thinking. Still showing a sharp cut off along I 70. EDIT: IWX is bullish and spitting out amounts, "...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED BY MID DAY TUESDAY." I think that's a fairly good broadbrushed call for their CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 3.3333" IMBY final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 EDIT: IWX is bullish and spitting out amounts, "...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED BY MID DAY TUESDAY." Seems like a good call right now. IND thinking 1-2" across the northern parts of the CWA. Can't afford any more wiggles north though, IMBY. Hopefully we score a little measurable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 If you want to get really picky about it (I wouldn't advise, but it's interesting to look over nonetheless), the energy which will make up our clipper was barely 'sampled', if you really want to call it that. Using the UCAR Alaska radiosonde chart, and comparing to 500mb vorticity maps as of 0z tonight, it looks like a lone site on the island just south of the western mainland got a shot to diagnose the system in tonight's balloon launch. Compare for yourself: Something that's always troubled me is the effect, if any, of these early sampling events on the models. Could they predict the eventual track of the storm due to that 'mini-sampling'? Or is it of little to no consequence? This event might be a good test of the theory; we saw guidance generally make a move southward (mainly the GFS duo and Euro) with tonight's 0z runs. Even one raob can help the models calibrate the strength and position of the wave, so it does help, but it is still early in the clipper's life cycle and it will completely shear apart in the next 54 hours. It would be more beneficial to sample the wave later. On the other hand, no clipper can be adequately sampled by the upper air network, so you pretty much take what you can get at any stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 3.3333" IMBY final call I'm gonna take the over for once on this. I say 4.5 for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I'm gonna take the over for once on this. I say 4.5 for us. you can tack on .5" for every 10 miles south of MBY clippers often run south of guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 gfs came a little north. still liking a euro track overall. I expect the ggem to start caving north in the next couple runs. This just hasn't had that south trend feeling from the beginning even though southern-trending clippers are common. still think a 1-2" event along i-70, (probably closer to 2 imby)....probably snow advisory with a row of counties north of that with 3-6" in the northern parts of Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 clippers often run south of guidance ORD looking good for 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 DTX going 2-4", the heavier of that being south, which is not an unreasonable call at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 DTX going 2-4", the heavier of that being south, which is not an unreasonable call at this point. Today's trends suggest maybe 1 to 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 ORD looking good for 3-5". So my 3.333 call is looking good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Today's trends suggest maybe 1 to 2 inches Because these two systems are the same right? Eternal pessimism without reasoning is not a good way to post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Today's trends suggest maybe 1 to 2 inches I am not surprised by the trends at all. I am thinking an 1" will be about it here. Hopefully we can get it to look like winter and not just feeling like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 So my 3.333 call is looking good? Money in the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 ggem still weak and south, practically whiffs chicago and Michigan. A year ago I might have wondered about a coupe...this year the ggem is nothing more than a lol outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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