DAFF Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Because it's the main model run in Canada, just like the GFS for the US and the ECMWF for Europe. They just don't stop running a significant model because it doesn't perform well all of the time. +1, its sniffed out a few rabbits. I find the reg PCPN TYPE maps to be very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Because it's the main model run in Canada, just like the GFS for the US and the ECMWF for Europe. They just don't stop running a significant model because it doesn't perform well all of the time. The real problem arises when said model doesn't receive updates despite its dismal performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 The real problem arises when said model doesn't receive updates despite its dismal performance. It had a MAJOR update as recently as 2013... https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/posts/332005146900132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 As an aside, incredible cold being modeled behind the clipper. Mid -20s at 850 and a mid 1050s high dropping south from the Plains on the 00z GFS by Weds AM. That would approach the severity of the January 6-7 2014 extreme cold. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 This is really an impressive system showing up in the models and now we have good agreement between both the GFS and PGFS. The low level circulation is really able to intensify as it crosses the Rockies and comes over the baroclinic zone and leads to a response in the low level wind fields which causes serious amounts of WAA juxtaposed with good frontogenesis leading to enhanced chances of banding along the boundary. Add to all the the 300-400mb DGZ being progged along the best snow swath and you have ingredients for an overperfomer. Yes it's fast moving but we've seen this setup before. As we see in the GFS snowfall maps, the best amounts are across northern/northeast IA due to the fact that the orientation of the low level winds (850mb-925mb) are more perpendicular to the baroclinic zone allowing for better WAA up and over the front to generate/maintain precip. In time those winds begin to veer as the system moves east so you see a slight reduction in fcst amounts but we shouldn't see a rapid drop off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Still a no go on the GGEM. Remember it was the first model to show the more NW track of this weekend's storm FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 It had a MAJOR update as recently as 2013... https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/posts/332005146900132 Yeah, my point was more directed towards models that do excessively poor in verification and still don't receive upgrades.I was going to reference the JMA here, but it received an upgrade, if I'm reading this right, in March of last year: http://www.wcrp-climate.org/WGNE/BlueBook/2014/individual-articles/06_Yonehara_Hitoshi_WGNE_BB2014_GSMupgrade_yonehara.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah, my point was more directed towards models that do excessively poor in verification and still don't receive upgrades. Those upgrades aren't cheap and governments aren't flushed with cash these days... It serves its purpose well enough for Canadians to not do expensive upgrades every time it fails with a storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah, my point was more directed towards models that do excessively poor in verification and still don't receive upgrades. I was going to reference the JMA here, but it received an upgrade, if I'm reading this right, in March of last year: http://www.wcrp-climate.org/WGNE/BlueBook/2014/individual-articles/06_Yonehara_Hitoshi_WGNE_BB2014_GSMupgrade_yonehara.pdf GGEM isn't the best but excessively poor may be stretching it. We're not talking Nogaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 GGEM suck be damned, but it does have the clipper despite T-Blizz's assertions. Weak as it is, but it has some snow parts of IA, IL, and IN. It's actually an improvement over the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Those upgrades aren't cheap and governments aren't flushed with cash these days... It serves its purpose well enough for Canadians to not do expensive upgrades every time it fails with a storm... GGEM isn't the best but excessively poor may be stretching it. We're not talking Nogaps.Wasn't trying to zero in on the GGEM, its upgrade has seemingly allowed it to have relatively high quality forecasts in comparison to other global models. My point was on how some guidance can be truly abysmal for months & even years on end with little to no indication of an upgrade... But yes, talk is cheap, upgrades are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 At least the GGEM picked this up in some form. How bout them Buckeyes!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 The GEMs ensembles are all over the place with the clipper (talking the last few runs, obviously the 00z arent out yet). Some had a strong clipper way north, some way south, some weak, some had no clipper at all. The GFS and its ensembles consistency has amazed me. Honestly, I know we have a slop storm to deal with this weekend, but this clipper really has my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 As an aside, incredible cold being modeled behind the clipper. Mid -20s at 850 and a mid 1050s high dropping south from the Plains on the 00z GFS by Weds AM. That would approach the severity of the January 6-7 2014 extreme cold. Sent from my SM-G900V I saw this and that's more of a talking point than the snow. Sure, we haven't had much. if any, snow, but the sudden strong blast of cold will be sticking around for some time, and is of decent size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 The return to a more constant NW flow with tons of potential is something to smile about too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I saw this and that's more of a talking point than the snow. Sure, we haven't had much. if any, snow, but the sudden strong blast of cold will be sticking around for some time, and is of decent size. No it isn't, pattern relaxes by late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Going out 2 weeks the 850s are at -20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Absolutely brutal cold shot on the 00z Euro, holy smokes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Looks like but not sure that the 0z Euro has the clipper north of the GFS/PGFS. Can't even get agreement on a clipper. Euro = North GFS/PGFS = in between GGEM = South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Looks like but not sure that the 0z Euro has the clipper north of the GFS/PGFS. Can't even get agreement on a clipper. Euro = North GFS/PGFS = in between GGEM = South euro appears similar to the gfs ensemble mean. A bit weaker, but the strongest euro run yet for the clipper. The gfs ensembles have been remarkably consistent with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 euro appears similar to the gfs ensemble mean. A bit weaker, but the strongest euro run yet for the clipper. The gfs ensembles have been remarkably consistent with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Nice hit on the 12z GFS. Ratios will be temp dependant but at least 15:1 seems very likely. Someone will pick up 6" out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 The GFS has now had like 6 runs in a row with a 6-8" swath through northern IL and surrounding areas. The PGFS looks even wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I've got a good feeling about this one. With the deep cold in check, even a small liquid equivalent will produce a nice yield of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Certainly seeming like a "win win" scenario for someone in the subforum....(which is far from the norm this winter)....either things are little drier with QPF but better ratios....OR .... ratios maybe a touch lower, but better QPF.... finally a nice size hole on the needle to thread (which I guess is typical for clippers....exception being location of swath)...but someone should do well here all things considered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 Better signal now on the 12z GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I would imagine some of the individual hours leading up to this show some nice thumps over north central and north east iowa with a set-up and timing like this late night....via the 12Z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Not only this but it might actually do well for most of Canada which is what matters to them. I heard somewhere that Environment Canada forecasters actually have to use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Weekend system and this...things are looking up in a general sense. Better than Bo being the only one to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I also agree that this clipper is higher predictability and probably higher awesomeness than the current crapfest brewing for Saturday for most of the subforum. It should just zip along the fringe of the westerlies right through a chunk of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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