Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 All the forecast sounding I've checked in Iowa show great DGZ depth. Winds shouldn't be strong enough to shatter the dendrites either. We did better than 10:1 in the GHD blizzard with 60mph winds lol. I just checked Des Moines for 21z and the models were suggesting dual DGZs at that time. The one in the mid levels is around 675-550 mb...decent depth but not that impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 this thing is hauling ass....virga over most of IN already. At this rate we'll be finishing up by 4 or 5am....son's snow day might be in jeopardy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Hopefully Hawkeye is out taking core samples and can give us a heads up on how the ratios really are. If ratios really end up being 10:1 then how fun is it going to be trying to figure out how much snow we'll get with future clippers? Apparently we all missed something if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Hopefully Hawkeye is out taking core samples and can give us a heads up on how the ratios really are. If ratios really end up being 10:1 then how fun is it going to be trying to figure out how much snow we'll get with future clippers? Apparently we all missed something if that's the case. if 10:1 ends up being the case....at least it's an easy forecast. 1-3" forum-wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Obviously we do better than 10:1 but 20+ will likely be too optimistic for a storm average. LOT on the ball going with 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Pixie dust + system hauling ass = many busts. Several reports out of SW MN show low ratios as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Reports out of Iowa are sort of meh at this point. Generally 2-4" over northwest Iowa where it's been ripping for several hours. A 2" and 3" report in the Des Moines area where it's been snowing since noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Pixie dust + system hauling ass = many busts. Several reports out of SW MN show low ratios as well. Cursed winter of 2014-2015 giving us the middle finger again I guess, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 DSM with another 1" in the past hour on .07" precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Hopefully Hawkeye is out taking core samples and can give us a heads up on how the ratios really are. If ratios really end up being 10:1 then how fun is it going to be trying to figure out how much snow we'll get with future clippers? Apparently we all missed something if that's the case. The only thing I could think of is the saturation above the DGZ. Saturation at temperatures lower than -20C introduces a lot of plates and columns which keep the flake size very small. My thinking has been that with a DGZ depth of 300 to 400 mb, the long residence time of these smaller flakes would mean they would just accrete to the larger dendrites and have little impact, but maybe they are cutting down flake size significantly. Still thinking ratios will improve out our way, but the upstream obs definitely have me nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Cursed winter of 2014-2015 giving us the middle finger again I guess, lol. At least you'll get some snow. My 3-5" turned into a complete wiff. Might not even see a flake. Good luck though. Always rooting for IL and Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I guess this is a case of too much depth to the cold for high snow ratios. Found this diagram that shows snowflake structure vs. temperature. Probably have plates or needles coming down in Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Question I have is there any actual melted reports coming out? DSM ASOS probably uses an AWPG precip gage. If it was a tipping bucket, it would probably be showing T amounts because those can't handle frozen precip. But anyway, those AWPG systems can sometimes produce screwy ratios on both ends of the spectrum, which we've seen at RFD and ORD. Not disputing the concerns about lower ratios, just wondering. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Out in Iowa on 80... Westbound lanes of Interstate 80 near Altoona were closed Monday afternoon by a multiple vehicle crash. The crash was reported about 3:20 p.m. The Iowa DOT reported I-80 westbound blocked between exit 137, the east mixmaster with I-235/ I-35, and exit 141 at Highway 65 near Altoona. Some injuries have been reported and ambulances have been called to the crash scene. Westbound traffic is backed up past the Altoona exits. http://www.kcci.com/weather/20vehicle-crash-reported-on-interstate-80/30540954 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Out in Iowa on 80... i80-crash-1.png http://www.kcci.com/weather/20vehicle-crash-reported-on-interstate-80/30540954 I expect that...or worse...on I-65 tonight/tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Question I have is there any actual melted reports coming out? DSM ASOS probably uses an AWPG precip gage. If it was a tipping bucket, it would probably be showing T amounts because those can't handle frozen precip. But anyway, those AWPG systems can sometimes produce screwy ratios on both ends of the spectrum, which we've seen at RFD and ORD. Not disputing the concerns about lower ratios, just wondering. Sent from my SM-G900V Haven't seen any melted reports, at least from IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Out in Iowa on 80... i80-crash-1.png http://www.kcci.com/weather/20vehicle-crash-reported-on-interstate-80/30540954 That looks like a whole lot of fun. Snow should begin here in the next half hour. Anxious to see how the flakes are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 These interstate crashes always irritate the heck out of me. It takes one idiot Bif or Buffy hauling ass to cause havoc and hurt people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Haven't seen any melted reports, at least from IA. Hopefully there will be a melted report from the WFO DSM at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I expect that...or worse...on I-65 tonight/tomorrow. They should just close that down any time it snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Spitting the first flakes here. And so it begins.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 These interstate crashes always irritate the heck out of me. It takes one idiot Bif or Buffy hauling ass and texting to cause havoc and hurt people. fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Hop WRF pretty aggressive with snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Flake size so far is abysmal. Still early though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Almost here...radar filling in nicely to the south/west... too bad it might miss rush hour..i like me some greasy roads with heavy traffic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 These interstate crashes always irritate the heck out of me. It takes one idiot Bif or Buffy hauling ass to cause havoc and hurt people. probably texting how bad the roads are while taking selfies and eating a delcious 6 inch footlong from Subway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Update 1/5/15 - Clipper Takes the Low Road for Path and Snowfall With Unusually Strong High Pressure Following http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2015/01/take-heart-winter-lovers-while-one.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 getting better.... PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA508 PM CST MON JAN 5 20150500 PM SNOW 1 S JOHNSTON 41.67N 93.71W01/05/2015 E5.0 INCH POLK IA NWS EMPLOYEE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 getting better.... Yeah quite a number of 3-5" reports have filtered into the DSM office over the past half hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Out in Iowa on 80... i80-crash-1.png http://www.kcci.com/weather/20vehicle-crash-reported-on-interstate-80/30540954 80 westbound there is still closed 2 hours later. Always some idiot overestimating how well their vehicle handles snow. Snow has been coming down at a good rate since noon in West DSM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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