snowlover2 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 different criteria FTW/L Untitled.png I would be surprized if ILN didn't upgrade some of the counties around east IN/W OH to warnings with the upgrades in IN/IL happening. Pretty obvious NWS offices are buying into the wetter solutions now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I would be surprized if ILN didn't upgrade some of the counties around east IN/W OH to warnings with the upgrades in IN/IL happening. Pretty obvious NWS offices are buying into the wetter solutions now. Afternoon afd makes it sounds like it's not happening...at least not yet SNOW SHOULD HAVE ENDED IN METRO CINCY BY 7 AM. THIS IS HELPING THE THINKING PROCESS OF NOT GOING WITH A WARNING FOR THIS AREA AND POSTING AN ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. GIVEN THE HIGHER CRIERIA FOR WSW OF 6 INCHES IN 12 HOURS FOR DAYTON THROUGH COLUMBUS...WILL NOT HAVE A WARNING IN THIS AREA EITHER...SO IT WILL LOOK LIKE A NARROW STRIP OF WARNING COUNTIES SURROUNDED BY ADVISORIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 wobble north tomorrow.... ORD 5.5 MBY/LOT 6.4 .... I would prolly shave an inch off those numbers now if I had the same responsibility as you and your co-workers....but I typically stick with my first call (right or wrong lol)...so i'll just go with it edit: that kinda came out wrong...but I think you know what I meant....I'm not trolling LOT Going with 4.4" here in northern Naperville. Thinking a 20:1 ratio is reasonable. Did you make a call for Bolingbrook Gilbert? your number seems to fit the solid consensus...side roads still packed/crusted over up by you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 Snowing now as far east as Iowa City -SN with 1/2 vis under fairly light radar returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Final guess for LAF: 5.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I'll go 3.0" at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Pretty poor spread on the 15z plumes this close to an event: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150105&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ORD&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=41.557667830745864&mLON=-88.01283515319824&mTYP=roadmap dProg/dt fairly consistent, but the standard deviation of the spreads are probably much larger for the later runs. Too bad they don't have an analysis tool for that sort of thing (sort from doing it all by hand): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2_means.php?YMD=20150105&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ORD&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=6&mLAT=40.18281107711959&mLON=-89.32441390380859&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I'll go 3.0" at ORD. I'm more interested your call for cycloneville and Dayton, OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I'll go 3.0" at ORD. i'll take the over, just barely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 LOT.... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL304 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015.SHORT TERM...302 PM CSTTONIGHT...SYNOPTIC/FORCING DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THEAPPROACHING UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINSWITH THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW MOVING ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTHDAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER. SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSSIOWA WITH A WARM ADVECTION RIBBON EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTOCENTRAL ILLINOIS. MANY SITES ACROSS IOWA ARE REPORTING 1/4 TO 1/2SMVSBY WITH STRONG REFLECTIVITY ON THE RADAR MOSAIC. GROUND REPORTSTHUS FAR INDICATE INCH PER HOURS AMOUNTS WITH NEAR 0.10 INCH LIQUIDLEADING TO 10-11:1 SNOW RATIOS. LATEST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE TRENDSSHOW THAT THE BEST FGEN FORCING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRDTO HALF OF THE ARA THIS EVENING CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE IDEA THATTHAT IS WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. HEAVIEST LIQUID SHOULDFALL JUST NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK WHICH WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THECWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP SNOW GROWTH ZONE BUTALIGNMENT OF BEST ASCENT VARIES ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHERN AREASENTRENCHED IN THE DEEPER COLD AIR WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE FORCINGABOVE THE BEST SNOW GROWTH ZONE WHILE AREAS SOUTH SEE A BETTERALIGNMENT. THIS MAY BE WHAT IS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WHERELOWER RATIOS HAVE BEEN REPORTED THUS FAR /SMALLER FLAKE SIZE ANDLESS FLUFF TO ACCUMULATION/.ACCUMULATION/TIMING DISCUSSION...WITH SNOW QUICKLY PROGRESSINGEASTWARD HAVE BUMPED UP POPS AFTER 22Z IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA.SOUTHWEST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A QUICK RAMP UP IN INTENSITY BYAROUND 00Z WITH A 4-5 HOUR WINDOW OF STRONG FORCING BEFORE THINGSTAPER AROUND AND AFTER 06Z. MOST AREAS WILL SEE A 3-5 HOUR WINDOWFOR SNOW BEFORE THINGS QUICKLY EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WILLCONTINUE WITH THE EXPECTATION OF 15-18:1 RATIOS FOR NOW. BESTFORCING...ALIGNMENT OF FORCING WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...ANDDURATION OF FORCING CONTINUE TO BE ALIGNED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWAWITH THESE ELEMENTS LESS ALIGNED TO THE NORTH. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVETIGHTENED UP THE ACCUMULATION GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA SOMEWHAT TOSHOW A LITTLE BIT LESS IN FAR NORTHEAST IL. AREAS GENERALLY ALONGAND SOUTH OF A MENDOTA TO SOUTH CHICAGO METRO TO RENSSELAER LOOK TOSEE SNOW FALL ACCUMULATION RATES OF AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR LEADINGTO A BROAD AREA OF 3 TO 6 INCH TOTALS WITH AREAS ALONG A AND SOUTHOF A STREATOR TO WATSEKA TO FOWLER LINE SEEING THE BEST CHANCE FOREVEN 5 TO 7 INCHES.HEADLINE AND IMPACTS DISCUSSION...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA GIVEN EXPECTED AMOUNTS.HAVE MADE AN EARLY UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING IN THE FARSOUTH GIVEN THE EXPECTED BETTER BANDING AND BETTER ALIGNMENT OFFORCING ETC. DISCUSSED ABOVE. SNOWFALL INTENSITY/ACCUMULATION RATEWILL BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH RATES AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR ANDPOSSIBLY TOWARDS 1.5 IN/HR IN THE FAR SOUTH MAKING SNOW REMOVALDIFFICULT...NOT TO MENTION LIMITING VISIBILITY TO A 1QUARTER MILE ORLESS AT TIMES. DESPITE LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA STILLEXPECT A DECENT ACCUMULATION RATE LEADING TO TRAVEL HAZARDS.MDB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 .... I would prolly shave an inch off those numbers now if I had the same responsibility as you and your co-workers....but I typically stick with my first call (right or wrong lol)...so i'll just go with it edit: that kinda came out wrong...but I think you know what I meant....I'm not trolling LOT your number seems to fit the solid consensus...side roads still packed/crusted over up by you? Who knows maybe we'll get a last minute overperformer, but your call wasn't bad for a first call. You could end up close to/around 5" based on consensus qpf from latest guidance and approximately 20:1 ratio. Parking lot is still crusted over at my apartment complex, haven't left all day and definitely know you're not trolling LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I'm more interested your call for cycloneville and Dayton, OH. 5.5" and 4.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 5.5" and 4.0" That's cruel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 lol GROUND REPORTSTHUS FAR INDICATE INCH PER HOURS AMOUNTS WITH NEAR 0.10 INCH LIQUIDLEADING TO 10-11:1 SNOW RATIOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 good luck road crews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 lol Yeah, 10:1 ratios in the areas with heavier snow is a bit surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Yeah, 10:1 ratios in the areas with heavier snow is a bit surprising. SREF mega fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 ORD 2.9" MDW 3.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Yeah, 10:1 ratios in the areas with heavier snow is a bit surprising. jb's 30:1 call might be in jeopardy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 SREF mega fail 10:1 ratios with these forecast soundings would call for some kind of case study to figure out what went wrong. Winds aren't particularly strong so I can't see how that's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 10:1 ratios with these forecast soundings would call for some kind of case study to figure out what went wrong. Winds aren't particularly strong so I can't see how that's possible. I'm curious where the ratio reports are coming from. All I'm seeing via LSRs are snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 10:1 ratios with these forecast soundings would call for some kind of case study to figure out what went wrong. Winds aren't particularly strong so I can't see how that's possible. maybe piss poor dendritic growth? Sounds like the only way you can achieve 10:1 in single digit temps is if it's a pixie dust bonanza Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 maybe piss poor dendritic growth? Sounds like the only way you can achieve 10:1 in single digit temps is if it's a pixie dust bonanza +1...must be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 That's cruel5.9" would have been cruel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 maybe this? .09 precip with 1" of snow in the past hour at Des Moines METAR KDSM 052054Z 16011KT 1/4SM R31/2600V3000FT +SN VV005 M12/M15 A3035 RMK AO2 PRESFR SLP301 SNINCR 1/3 P0009 60017 T11221150 56052 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 5.9" would have been cruel. Fits in my 4-6" forecast. Really don't think we reach warning criteria here, but not gonna take away from it though, should be a fun event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 FWIW, 18z GFS is a little wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 maybe this? .09 precip with 1" of snow in the past hour at Des Moines METAR KDSM 052054Z 16011KT 1/4SM R31/2600V3000FT +SN VV005 M12/M15 A3035 RMK AO2 PRESFR SLP301 SNINCR 1/3 P0009 60017 T11221150 56052 All the forecast sounding I've checked in Iowa show great DGZ depth. Winds shouldn't be strong enough to shatter the dendrites either. We did better than 10:1 in the GHD blizzard with 60mph winds lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 If those low snow ratios out west are correct, the low vis in many locations likely means it's pouring dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Fits in my 4-6" forecast. Really don't think we reach warning criteria here, but not gonna take away from it though, should be a fun event. I think if I were facing that 6" futility record you guys are, I sure as hell wouldn't want to end with a few tenths of an inch. I think I'd rather be short a couple tenths, (ie 5.8), keep the futility record alive, and hope to blast it out of the water with a twelve incher. but that's just me.... goodluck either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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