Gilbertfly Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 15Z SREF won't be backing down much from the looks of it.... 15Z SREF .... 3 hr tots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 15Z SREF won't be backing down much from the looks of it.... god bless it. Too bad it's overdoing ratios though. Fcst ratios for us are 25-35:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 god bless it. Too bad it's overdoing ratios though. Fcst ratios for us are 25-35:1 sref.gif yeah....seems to be getting carried away in spots.... but a QPF nudge upwards in our locations seems to be trending... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 18z HRRRRRRRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Updated advisory out of IND lowered amounts to 3-5. Boo hiss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 man, sref really gonna go down swinging huh go big or go home i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 133 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015 UPDATE 130 PM CST HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES...LIVINGSTON...FORD...IROQUOIS...BENTON...TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THIS EVENING. WITH AN INTENSE BAND OF SNOW QUICKLY SPREADING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA PRODUCING SNOWFALL OF AN INCH OR BETTER PER HOUR AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...FGEN FORCING LOOKS TO FURTHER FOCUS INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO EARLY EVENING. AM THINKING THAT THE PEAK INTENSITY/DURATION AND THEREFORE PEAK AMOUNTS WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OR JUST SOUTH. AFTER DISCUSSION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS REGARDING THE INTENSE SNOW RATES...IMPACTS...AND THE FACT THAT 6-7 INCHES IS LOOKING MORE FAVORED OVER AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING. MDB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Wow, 1/8 mile now at KFSD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 This web cam is money http://www.fpm.iastate.edu/webcam/isucam// Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 man, sref really gonna go down swinging huh go big or go home i guess No doubt... Mean at about 6.9" for ORD. Cluster is in the 5.4-8.2" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 No doubt... Mean at about 6.9" for ORD. Cluster is in the 5.4-8.2" range. LOT not taking the bait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 SREF mean of 7.3" here with ratios around 21:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Updated advisory out of IND lowered amounts to 3-5. Boo hiss. It's a good call, IMO. 12z Euro is pretty dry for us, and best snows look to skirt north. I'd probably lean more 3" than 5"...not buying any super ratios for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 yeah....seems to be getting carried away in spots.... but a QPF nudge upwards in our locations seems to be trending... I was incorrect...for JOT....QPF actually dropped a bit, but kept the snow total mean around 8 inches still.... really hard to buy that ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 It's a good call, IMO. 12z Euro is pretty dry for us, and best snows look to skirt north of us. I'd probably lean more 3" than 5"... Almost everything except the Euro has a narrow band of slightly higher precip (have to look at smaller intervals...doesn't really show up when looking at .25 intervals) over or just south of us...though areas further south may have slightly lower ratios to offset. I'm still pretty comfortable with 4-6" and think someone around here could go a bit over 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 LOT not taking the bait From my experience, the SREF plumes are not used much as part of the snowfall forecast by the office. The ratios seem overdone like the ratios on the Cobb output often are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 You know it's snowing efficiently when 13dbz is leading to 3/4M vis and 16dbz is 1/2M vis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 From my experience, the SREF plumes are not used much as part of the snowfall forecast by the office. The ratios seem overdone like the ratios on the Cobb output often are. yeah, i've only seen them mentioned once. They had a nice run IMBY last winter with a couple of long duration 12" events but that's about it. lowering the ration to 18:1 puts the totals right in line with the current thinking out of LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 You know it's snowing efficiently when 13dbz is leading to 3/4M vis and 16dbz is 1/2M vis. best part about these clippers for sure, no struggling to get under 25 dbz returns to see nice snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 18z NAM a tad wetter in the main band farther east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 IND now upgraded to a winter storm warning basically along/N of I-70...4-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 3-6" in my updated advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 3-6" in my updated advisory. Still sticking with my 4.0" call for DKB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 IND now upgraded to a winter storm warning basically along/N of I-70...4-7" What? That's sorta strange considering the WWA was updated an hour and half ago to lower amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 What? That's sorta strange considering the WWA was updated an hour and half ago to lower amounts. Maybe that was just the midday update. I'll take a guess and say that happened prior to coordination for the afternoon package, specifically since LOT pulled the trigger on a warning for their southern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 IND WSW URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN305 PM EST MON JAN 5 2015...THE FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED ACROSSPORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...INZ021-028>031-035>042-046>049-060415-/O.UPG.KIND.WW.Y.0002.150106T0000Z-150106T1500Z//O.NEW.KIND.WS.W.0001.150106T0000Z-150106T1500Z/CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS305 PM EST MON JAN 5 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AMEST TUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THISEVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOLONGER IN EFFECT.* ACCUMULATIONS: SNOWFALL OF 4 TO AS MUCH AS 7 INCHES IS EXPECTED ATTHIS TIME.* TIMING: SNOWFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 7 PM...WITHTHE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL OCCURRING FROM AROUND 10 PM THROUGHAROUND 4 AM TUESDAY.* OTHER IMPACTS: SNOWFALL RATES COULD EXCEED 1-2 INCHES PER HOURFOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN SPOTS WHICH WILL GREATLY REDUCEVISIBILITIES AND MAKE REMOVAL EFFORTS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT DURINGTHAT TIME. TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THE TUESDAY MORNINGCOMMUTE. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHICHWILL CAUSE DRIFTING AND LIKELY PROLONG HAZARDS ON AREA ROADWAYS.* WIND CHILL VALUES: SINGLE DIGIT TO LOW TEEN WIND CHILLS CAN BEEXPECTED DURING THE SNOW...WITH MUCH COLDER WIND CHILLS EXPECTEDDURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Arctic air is definitely firmly entrenched today - still 1* outside. Yes, you do win some and lose some. 2.1" in my grid specifically. Guess I ride that and hope it holds true. Sick snow fall rates at Sioux Falls and Des Moines! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 different criteria FTW/L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Arctic air is definitely firmly entrenched today - still 1* outside. Yes, you do win some and lose some. 2.1" in my grid specifically. Guess I ride that and hope it holds true. Sick snow fall rates at Sioux Falls and Des Moines! Road crews were not exactly on top of things out here, and the cold temps are not helping. With snow already on many side roads, things will go to hell quickly when it starts falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Going with 4.4" here in northern Naperville. Thinking a 20:1 ratio is reasonable. Did you make a call for Bolingbrook Gilbert? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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