mimillman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I'm not sure how this is surprising. It's not...just something no one has really brought up is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 It's not...just something no one has really brought up is all. It hasn't been brought up because it's something that happens on the reg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 It hasn't been brought up because it's something that happens on the reg. I was mainly posting it to get some thoughts on how long saturation would take, and also obs of other people right now re: RH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 FWIW: ECM.png not bad really for the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I was mainly posting it to get some thoughts on how long saturation would take, and also obs of other people right now re: RH. With the speed of the clipper, maybe an hour or so at most to saturate the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Euro dropped from around 0.32" to 0.27" from 00z to 12z. Based on that if ratios stay at 20:1 or less we won't break 6". Hopefully the 22-24:1 ratios work out so we can get this monkey off our backs. Hawkeye looking a little better for 6"+ with precip forecasts a bit higher there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 With the speed of the clipper, maybe an hour or so at most to saturate the column. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I was mainly posting it to get some thoughts on how long saturation would take, and also obs of other people right now re: RH. It's bone dry in the low-mid levels so it's gonna take some time to overcome that, but models are in agreement on moistening the column fairly quickly later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I've seen all the guidance I need. Time for a call : 3.6 IMBY. I will update if 18 Z NAM comes in different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Luckily up this way, the system is "seeding" our lake effect (which usually doesn't amount to much other than mood flakes if that), so feeling pretty stout with 1-2" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I've seen all the guidance I need. Time for a call : 3.6 IMBY. I will update if 18 Z NAM comes in different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 webcams west of des moines looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I can see it already... fine sugar type snowflakes falling all night, but not much to show for it. Will see though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Thanks...does the 2-4 assume 10:1 ratios? Yes, on sv it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 A bit of sublimation today but tonight's snow should really spruce up the landscape. And now Thursday is looking better and better. We are going to build a snowcover the slow and steady way lol Thinking closer to 1" than 2" but well see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I can see it already... fine sugar type snowflakes falling all night, but not much to show for it. Will see though... win some you lose some cut to 2-4 here as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 Mitchell, SD along I-90 is ripping with a temp of only 4 degrees KMHE 051853Z AUTO 13014KT 1/4SM SN FZFG VV007 M16/M18 A3014 RMK AO2 SLP244P0001 T11561178 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 win some you lose some cut to 2-4 here as well I'm gonna stick to my guns and stay with 3-5. If I go down with the ship, so be it. An aside: Oswego-land is under a Lake Effect Snow Warning expiring 7:00 AM tomorrow morning. They're also under a Lake Effect Snow Watch effective from 7:00 PM tomorrow night expiring 10:00 AM January 7th. I need to spend a winter there just once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Several 1/4 mile obs have crept into northwest Iowa now. Des Moines reduced to 1/2 already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 win some you lose some cut to 2-4 here as well Still 3-5" here with 4.1" in the hourly My 4.2" looking money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Mitchell, SD along I-90 is ripping with a temp of only 4 degrees KMHE 051853Z AUTO 13014KT 1/4SM SN FZFG VV007 M16/M18 A3014 RMK AO2 SLP244 P0001 T11561178 Nice. Check out KMDS just northeast of there. -2 with +SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 18z RAP coming in a little better than 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Still 3-5" here with 4.1" in the hourly My 4.2" looking money both of our calls look fine for our respective backyards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Nice. Check out KMDS just northeast of there. -2 with +SN. KBIS reported .05" water equivalent last hour with a temp of -4. I've been looking at the LSRs in ND (only place I can find submitting them yet) and only see 3" snow max so far but I'm guessing some places are getting more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 Another nice bump looking at the 30" liquid contour across northeast IA down to cycloneville and Dixon area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 both of our calls look fine for our respective backyards Yeah solid consensus now of about .25" liquid near Aurora/Batavia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Another nice bump looking at the 30" liquid contour across northeast IA down to cycloneville and Dixon area. output_PZFylb.gif HRRR has been inching upward as well last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Euro's lower qpf with expected ratios would make anything more than the lower end of 4-6" a bit tough here. But other models are a bit wetter and even the 18z RAP/HRRR still showing more (and basically within 9-12 hours now) so I'm still feeling pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 15Z SREF won't be backing down much from the looks of it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 got that classic clipper look going now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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