Thundersnow12 Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 ^quite a shift north with the .25" liquid contour. Liking my call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 more 'stuff' for the clipper info pile-on. 12z ukie. Widespread .2-.3" qpf....(also seems to be a tad north of other guidance?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Quite a few locations down to 1/2 mile in SN along the Missouri River now. Snow very quickly expanding, and intensifying on the radars out there. Still sticking with my 4-6" call from last night for here. 6-8" south side of QC and back towards Iowa City/Cedar Rapids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 ^quite a shift north with the .25" liquid contour. Liking my call it was a southern laggard before but it's nice to see the bleeding stop radar looking nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 more 'stuff' for the clipper info pile-on. 12z ukie. Widespread .2-.3" qpf....(also seems to be a tad north of other guidance?) Seems a bit Euro-esque from last night. A lot of recent guidance has had slightly higher precip running over or a tad south of LAF so it will be interesting to see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 it was a southern laggard before but it's nice to see the bleeding stop radar looking nice I think your call will work out fine...3-4 looks like a good bet in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 FWIW, individual 9z SREF member precip through 00z Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Some good ol' fashioned clown maps for good measure from the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 yeah that sounds right...I think I also recall reading a tweet or FB post from Caplan or LOT or someone reputable of 120:1 ratios somewhere I remember that as well. I think I remember seeing that from somewhere west of you. Can't remember if it was from the DVN or LOT cwa, but it was a legit report. Another report came in during that event with something like 80:1. --- I think Cyclone and Hawkeye have a greater than 80% chance of topping over 6" for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I remember Joe had an obs in recent years of 70 to 1 ratios (maybe even greater?) ... but it was like .01 coming out to .7 inches or something....fwiw It was 1.3" on 0.01" on 1/17/14. There have been other very high ratio events the past several years as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 It was 1.3" on 0.01" on 1/17/14. There have been other very high ratio events the past several years as well. lol...awesome...sneeze and clear the drive! just had a couple sets of fishbone clouds work their way overhead....usually a good sign for mby speaking in generalities and non-specifics when it comes pending to snow events...fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 LOT mentioning ratios may be a problem north AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1209 PM CST MON JAN 5 2015 UPDATE 1149 AM CST NO CHANGES EXPECTED WITH GOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO QUICKLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AN NORTHERN PLAINS WITH MANY SITES REPORTING SUB 1SM VSBY WITH MANY 1/4SM REPORTS SHOWING UP AS WELL. TRACK-WISE THE MAIN SFC FEATURE WILL CROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH THE BEST FORCING JUST NORTH OF ITS TRACK. LATEST TRENDS AND GUIDANCE SUPPORT PEAK AMOUNTS LIKELY FALLING JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST ASCENT DISPLACED ABOVE THE PRIMARY SNOW GROWTH LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WITH BETTER ALIGNMENT AS YOU WORK SOUTH. THIS WILL LIKELY HAMPER SNOW EFFICIENCY NORTH WITH FINER FLAKES. FAR SOUTHERN AREAS TOWARD PONTIAC...WATSEKA...AND FOWLER SHOW MORE OPTIMAL SNOW PRODUCTION AND AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE WILL LIKELY SEE THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN OUR CWA...WITH SOME HIGHER TOTALS FAVORED FURTHER SOUTH. SNOW PROGRESSION STILL LOOKS ON TRACK BUT MAY NEED TO SPEED ARRIVAL OF THE INTIAL WARM ADVECTION SNOW...NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL IOWA...ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY TIGHTEN SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS AND ABOVE DISCUSSION WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES IN THE FAR NORTHEAST AND A BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT UP TO THE 4-6 RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. MDB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 radar really coming together, looks like all systems go for DVN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 observation: if snowlover2 posts about model X, it moved south. You mean basically how everyone else here does the exact same thing? Is there some new rule that says Ohio posters can't post about a model that has a storm affecting them? What is with the hatred toward the Ohio posters anyway? Just don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 LOT mentioning ratios may be a problem north geos better fix that magnet asap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Euro looked like it bumped north a bit. 2-4 on snow maps gets to the boarder,Chicago looks to be in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 You mean basically how everyone else here does the exact same thing? Is there some new rule that says Ohio posters can't post about a model that has a storm affecting them? What is with the hatred toward the Ohio posters anyway? Just don't get it. Don't take it personal. It's always the way it has been around here. If this thing would have started trending north, there would have been all kinds of silly pics of wagons with horses with a "north" written on it. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 LOT mentioning ratios may be a problem north they were already using 18:1 in their overnight discussion, i'd be surprised if we did much worse than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 You mean basically how everyone else here does the exact same thing? Is there some new rule that says Ohio posters can't post about a model that has a storm affecting them? What is with the hatred toward the Ohio posters anyway? Just don't get it. best just to roll with the punches and remember there are a few of us who love to post about a model showing a screw job for our backyards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 they were already using 18:1 in their overnight discussion, i'd be surprised if we did much worse than that Same, at worst it would be 18:1 across the northern suburbs. I am thinking 88 south should be in the 20 to 23:1 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 as an example....with regard to shearing out (which is clearly expected to an extent)...but something to watch when it comes to the QPF production into northern IL.... Iowa still looks like a good thump before things "thin" out crossing IL... only one models take....so again just an example of something I am watching trend wise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 As usual with these systems, always earlier than modeled. Looking fairly decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 As usual with these systems, always earlier than modeled. Looking fairly decent radar image.png A good portion of that axis has 1/4 to 3/4M vis OBS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 geos better fix that magnet asap Magnet can't save him this time. I get where LOT is coming from...dgz (and lift within) starts out good but becomes less favorable with time as temps in the column get colder and result in a shallower growth zone. Most of the snow *could* be down by the time that happens but it's a close call. At least it shouldn't come as a total shock if ratios underperform... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Euro looked like it bumped north a bit. 2-4 on snow maps gets to the boarder,Chicago looks to be in a good spot. Thanks...does the 2-4 assume 10:1 ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 RH at 63%...concerned it may take a bit to saturate the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 MCD 0027... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0027 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CST MON JAN 05 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...IOWA...FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 051825Z - 060030Z SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR WILL SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A 1014-MB LOW NEAR THE MT/SD BORDER...WITH A WELL-DEFINED...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS SD AND FARTHER SE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY. DIURNAL HEATING OF THE COLD/DRY AIR MASS S OF THE BOUNDARY IS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN A SHALLOW...NEAR-SFC LAYER ON THE RELATIVELY WARMER SIDE OF THE FRONT. WITH ADDITIONAL DIABATIC HEATING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS FURTHER REDUCING LOW-LEVEL STATIC STABILITY...THIS TRANSLATES TO /1/ INCREASED PROPORTION OF WAA-RELATED RESPONSE DISTRIBUTED TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE SLOPING FRONT...AND /2/ BOLSTERED SFC CYCLOGENESIS AS A LOW-STATIC-STABILITY-ENHANCED GEOSTROPHIC-ADJUSTMENT RESPONSE TO DCVA PRECEDING A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS PER MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY. WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LOW/MID-LEVEL ASCENT...ESPECIALLY AS AN 850-700-MB FRONTOGENETIC BAND BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY. THE 12Z OAX AND MPX RAOBS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE REMAINS BELOW -10C...YIELDING SHALLOW/LOW-LEVEL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES BENEATH STRONGER ASCENT. REGARDLESS...SUCH COLD PROFILES WILL SUPPORT HIGH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS...WITH RECENT SREF OUTPUT SUGGESTING 15:1 TO PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 25:1 RATIOS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO SEVERAL HOURS OF 1.0-1.5-INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z/21Z. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS ANTICIPATED IN A 50-60-MILE-WIDE CORRIDOR CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM 30 SSE SIOUX FALLS SD TO 25 NNE DES MOINES IA TO 15 NNW PEORIA ILLINOIS. THIS INCLUDES AREAS NEAR...AND PARTICULARLY NORTH OF...THE DES MOINES IA AREA. BY EARLY EVENING...THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE SHIFTING ESE OF THE MS RIVER...WITH SNOWFALL DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM WNW TO ESE THROUGH THE EVENING. ..COHEN.. 01/05/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 RH at 63%...concerned it may take a bit to saturate the column. I'm not sure how this is surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Thanks...does the 2-4 assume 10:1 ratios? FWIW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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