wegoweather Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 hard to ignore this late in the game and they did well on NW flow events last winter ORD clustered tightly around 6-8 but we've added some <3" clunkers Eh, MBP2 and NMN3 look like Des Moines through Springfield solutions, with SE Iowa being the bullseye. NMP2 looks to be a general clunker for the entire system, below the mean everywhere I've checked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Forecast soundings from RAP still looking money. Extremely deep DGZ this evening. Really can't do any better than this. The RAP at 01z near QC, around time max rippage taking place. Almost 500mb of DG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 highest ratio I can recall was a 'storm'....using that term generously...that gave us 4" of snow right before xmas 1989. I think I recall hearing that the qpf was something very close to a tenth of an inch. It traversed a large part of the country. Anyone recall that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Agree. At ORD specifically, the mean has .23" qpf and 7" of snow for a ratio of 30:1. So it's not like it's really wet, just really bullish with ratios. LOT is only rolling with 18:1, I think we average something more like 23:1 but QPF ends up in the .12-.15 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 highest ratio I can recall was a 'storm'....using that term generously...that gave us 4" of snow right before xmas 1989. I think I recall hearing that the qpf was something very close to a tenth of an inch. It traversed a large part of the country. Anyone recall that one? i was busy playing Zelda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 highest ratio I can recall was a 'storm'....using that term generously...that gave us 4" of snow right before xmas 1989. I think I recall hearing that the qpf was something very close to a tenth of an inch. It traversed a large part of the country. Anyone recall that one? This one, maybe? CMH on 12/14-15/1989: 4.7" on 0.23" liquid. CVG had 7.0" w/ 0.30" liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 DVN is going with 20:1 in their southern cwa, to 25:1 up across their northern cwa. Sounds about right to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 This one, maybe? CMH on 12/14-15/1989: 4.7" on 0.23" liquid. yep....thought I had heard from a met here that the ratio on that one was much higher. Apparently not, or maybe our bar is pretty low. and that is really high for us. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 highest ratio I can recall was a 'storm'....using that term generously...that gave us 4" of snow right before xmas 1989. I think I recall hearing that the qpf was something very close to a tenth of an inch. It traversed a large part of the country. Anyone recall that one? I don't, but that was a really cold period in the US and the thought of high ratio fluff wouldn't be surprising. edit: ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I remember Joe had an obs in recent years of 70 to 1 ratios (maybe even greater?) ... but it was like .01 coming out to .7 inches or something....fwiw since sref is trending.... 3 hour totals off the 9z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I remember Joe had an obs in recent years of 70 to 1 ratios (maybe even greater?) ... but it was like .01 coming out to .7 inches or something....fwiw since sref is trending.... 3 hour totals off the 9z.... sref 9z 3 hour tots.gif IIRC, DVN had a one inch report on .01" liquid last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 IIRC, DVN had a one inch report on .01" liquid last year really was the year of dust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 LAF had 17.0" on a T of liquid with 2/13-14/2007. Not really, but that's what the airport recorded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 IIRC, DVN had a one inch report on .01" liquid last year 100 to 1???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Here is the HazWX ratio for the system using the Kuchera method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 IIRC, DVN had a one inch report on .01" liquid last year yeah that sounds right...I think I also recall reading a tweet or FB post from Caplan or LOT or someone reputable of 120:1 ratios somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 anyone here recall having temps this low....and dropping...as a clipper approaches? Granted my memory is a bit dusty, but I don't ever recall anything like this. Usually temps will rise a bit out in front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 anyone here recall having temps this low....and dropping...as a clipper approaches? Granted my memory is a bit dusty, but I don't ever recall anything like this. Usually temps will rise a bit out in front. it's still pretty far away dude that said, lots of station in southern MN still quite a bit below zero. usually when RST does well, I do well so i'll be watching obs there later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Here is the HazWX ratio for the system using the Kuchera method. cool, lines up nicely with what i was thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 anyone here recall having temps this low....and dropping...as a clipper approaches? Granted my memory is a bit dusty, but I don't ever recall anything like this. Usually temps will rise a bit out in front. It is pretty cold. Temps should steady out or maybe rise a bit as it moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 I'll ride with my first call of 4.2" still for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Temps gonna rise here as we approach go-time. And looks like IND is thinking 18:1 average ratios for LAF (5.7"/0.32"), based on the hourly graph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Here she comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 15z RAP a tad more generous compared to 12z on the northern edge, nothing crazy but it's usually going the other direction at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 A few 1/4 +SN reports coming out of southwest North Dakota now. Some solid SN in northern SD as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The lowest I remember it being really cold on the morning of a clipper was 2/6/2007. Hit -4˚ for a low, and got up to 12˚ as the clipper passed. Got 6.0" of fluff from that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 15z RAP a tad more generous compared to 12z on the northern edge, nothing crazy but it's usually going the other direction at this range. Yeah the .20" liquid line is decently more NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The lowest I remember it being really cold on the morning of a clipper was 2/6/2007. Hit -4˚ for a low, and got up to 12˚ as the clipper passed. Got 6.0" of fluff from that one. Yeah I mentioned that one earlier. A bit reminiscent in some ways but not quite as cold on the cold side. That one had a heck of a thermal gradient...STL reached 45 that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 it's still pretty far away dude that said, lots of station in southern MN still quite a bit below zero. usually when RST does well, I do well so i'll be watching obs there later. Watching this one scoot by to the SW, but just for reference it's still -10F imby as of 10am. Temps should only get up to about 0 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 hi-res guidance coming in a bit quicker and less stingy for N. IL & S. WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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