michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 12z PGFS lost it too but it's also been doing that and next run its back. 12z Ukie still tracks just south of the OH River and it looks like 12z GFS had another small shift south. Might end up a most of IL/IN/OH event when all said and done. Maybe. Or maybe a northern MI event. Seriously...declaring winners, even with the word "might", 5 days out is not a good idea. In 5 days the present storm went from suppressed garbage to way NW. The models are worse than ever, so right now its nothing more than a waiting game. The key imo is that its still very high support in the GFS ensembles. If they all start to lose it, THATS when I will worry, not about exact track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Wave is still way out there but this easily looks like the best clipper potential that the subforum has seen so far this winter. Gotta be careful to not fall into a trap of assuming everything is going to suck because winter hasn't been good so far. Excellent post! Remember, in November most some nice bouts of snow. All it took is one snowless month for everyone to think it will never snow again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 all about that baroclinic zone, this one should deliver 2-5 for whoever is lucky enough to end up the best stripe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Clippers are traditionally very high ratio events, and with temps in the teens that is almost a given this time. Clippers were one of my favorite weather events growing up because back in the 1990s we didnt get 150-200%+ of climo snowfall every other winter . They were the bread and butter of winters in the southern Lakes and northern OV until the 6"+ storm parade started this century. Its a risk to say, but i think this event is more a worry about where the clipper will track, not if it will even happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 it's been a fantastic winter....I don't know where this negativity is coming from. Sorry. That aside, show me this fantastic circulation and waa on the euro and ggem. meet me over in the banter thread, I'll really make your day! Lol. I never said fantastic. But here you go, I'd call 40-50kts at 900mb some pretty good WAA. It also has 850mb winds out of the SW early on at 45kts which is why you're seeing a better precip signal just north of the tight baroclinic zone. But feel free to keep riding your GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 You could also argue so very favorable/high ratios if this were to verify. It's not isothermal but it's fair close with about a depth of 450mb between -14 and -16 deg C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The 12z Euro has the clipper and a decent one. Best signal it's shown so far. I was always more confident in this then the weekend mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 You could also argue so very favorable/high ratios if this were to verify. It's not isothermal but it's fair close with about a depth of 450mb between -14 and -16 deg C. dgz.gif Clippers are traditionally very high ratio snow. WAA snow is traditionally decent ratio snow as well. So you give me a clipper, with WAA where temps start in the single digits, then spike into the teens, then fall back in the single digits after the snow passes....Im thinking this has the potential to be an overachiever even if a bullseye is nailed down. Hopefully it will be a very widespread swath of accumulating snow but the much smaller "bullseye" streak of snow could even be low end warning. Ive seen it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I was always more confident in this then the weekend mess. Likewise, usually clippers don't screw up they just miss you. That's why I don't get buckeye's complaint unless he is just trying to be a negative nancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 12z Euro has about 1.0-1.5" of snow for SE Michigan and YYZ. Nothing spectacular. Then some bitter cold. 850s are around -20 to -30C for most of us and surface temps at/below 0F. However, without a decent snowpack, sfc temps may end up being warmer than what the models show atm. Fantastic Winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 12z Euro has about 1.0-1.5" of snow for SE Michigan and YYZ. Nothing spectacular. Then some bitter cold. 850s are around -20 to -30C for most of us and surface temps at/below 0F. However, without a decent snowpack, sfc temps may end up being warmer than what the models show atm. Fantastic Winter! Euro throws down 0.08" of QPF at Pearson but ratios should be in the 15-20:1 range assuming thermals are fairly isothermal(don't have euro soundings but 850's are between -18 and -21c on this run). If we end up near/north of the digging vort, we should do better then just 1-1.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 12z Euro has about 1.0-1.5" of snow for SE Michigan and YYZ. Nothing spectacular. Then some bitter cold. 850s are around -20 to -30C for most of us and surface temps at/below 0F. However, without a decent snowpack, sfc temps may end up being warmer than what the models show atm. Fantastic Winter! This will not be a 10-1 ratio snow. I have no idea where the swath will track, nor how strong (GFS) or weak (GEM) it will be, but I can GUARENTEE you its not 10-1 ratio snow. And btw, this is the best euro run yet, it has not really had the clipper until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 This will be the first wintery system for a bunch of us since mid-november...... Well one thing's for sure, we don't have to worry about p-type with this one at least lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 18z GFS wih a slight shift north. Snow amounts similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 Last 4 runs of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Clipper is looking pretty sweet at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 PGFS still looks lost with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 PGFS still looks lost with this. It does have it, it is just north. Lost would be the GEM which doesn't have it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 PGFS still looks lost with this. PGFS used to have the nearly lost it completely but is now slowly getting better with it again (18Z was improved). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Mother Nature blessing us with some fluff next week. What a nice surprise after the depressing weekend cold rain. Looks like some decent ratios with temps in the teens for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 It does have it, it is just north. Lost would be the GEM which doesn't have it at all. +1 Still have no clue how or why that model is still around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 0z GFS holding its track but does look a little jucier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Looking good-- encouraging to see the 12z Euro come on board too. Hopefully we don't lose this one to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 0z GFS holding its track but does look a little jucier. Indeed. It's faster too. Snow is over by 12z Tuesday for much of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 00z GFS parallel lock step with the Op GFS on location and track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 This is the one we should all be focussing on. This one looks to give a nice hit to many of us in the sub forum. Enough with the failing phasers. Give me a decent, reliable hit from the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Still have no clue how or why that model is still around.Because it's the main model run in Canada, just like the GFS for the US and the ECMWF for Europe. They just don't stop running a significant model because it doesn't perform well all of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I'm thinking since the east/west waggon is a non factor in this one, chances of verification are 95%. Sustained snow pack at last !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Because it's the main model run in Canada, just like the GFS for the US and the ECMWF for Europe. They just don't stop running a significant model because it doesn't perform well all of the time. Not only this but it might actually do well for most of Canada which is what matters to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I'm thinking since the east/west waggon is a non factor in this one, chances of verification are 95%. Sustained snow pack at last !! It might waver north or south a bit but the outlook of this evaporating to nothing or someone getting rain is near zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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