Whitelakeroy Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 getting more tonight then we will in this event I would not be surprised to see more LES from it on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 ILN extends the watch south to include Ricmond IN to Dayton. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH1100 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2015INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ060>063-070>073-080-082-051200-/O.EXA.KILN.WS.A.0001.150106T0300Z-150106T1700Z/WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HIGHLAND-PIKE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...BROOKVILLE...EATON...DAYTON...XENIA...WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE...HAMILTON...LEBANON...WILMINGTON...CHILLICOTHE...HILLSBORO...PIKETON1100 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2015...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGHTUESDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGHTUESDAY MORNING.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.* TIMING...SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY EVENINGBECOMING HEAVY DURING THE NIGHT. SNOW WILL END LATE TUESDAYMORNING.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TOREDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE TUESDAY MORNINGCOMMUTE WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 And it continues..I'm sure it will cave eventually like usual but.. 3z RAP at 21z tomorrow is 1008mb over northwest SD 0z NAM at 21z tomorrow is 1014mb near Rapid City, SD along/south of I-90 The main wave looks a bit stronger on the RAP and further NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The small bumps south and the slight reduction in precip amounts has me a bit concerned about my 5-7" call. Thinking 4-6" is more like it. Heaviest band of 5-8" looks to line up from Washington IA to a little north of Peoria. So probably won't end the 6" streak, but will still be a real nice snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Gonna stick with the 4-6" range for LAF. At the point now where a minor wobble either way won't kill us...and actually could use a north wobble on some guidance. I think there's a chance of locally higher totals around here and thought about bumping it up by an inch but not comfortable enough. This is basically a 6 hour snow event (lighter snow showers/flurries perhaps lingering longer) with a lot of damage coming in a 3-4 hour window so there's not a lot of opportunity to play catch up if it gets off to a sluggish start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Euro maintains a slightly further north band compared to some of the other models. Heaviest from Iowa Falls down through CR/IC to the QC. Nice 0.30" precip swath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Euro maintains a slightly further north band compared to some of the other models. Heaviest from Iowa Falls down through CR/IC to the QC. Nice 0.30" precip swath. How about IN/OH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 How about IN/OH? A little less precip, around 0.20" for most of the northern half of Inidiana extending through central Ohio. Dayton is just south of the 0.20" precip band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 A little less precip, around 0.20" for most of the northern half of Inidiana extending through central Ohio. Dayton is just south of the 0.20" precip band. Dr. Stingy. Hoping it's a little low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 6z NAM moved just a touch south and is a bit wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 LOT went with a WWA for the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I'm going to bust high again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I'm going to bust high again Didn't you just bust low? What was your call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Just glanced at the mesoanalysis page and this has 1-2 written all over it. Geos may not even get that. Really turded out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 observation: if snowlover2 posts about model X, it moved south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 observation: if snowlover2 posts about model X, it moved south. I was SO going to mention that the other day but i didnt want to come off as snarky. But since the cats out of the bag... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 DTX still going 1-2" tonight. Getting an inch of snow yesterday/overnight when I expected a light dusting is a big help, because I know at the very least if I can just pull off a freakin inch tonight there will be a 2" blanket of snow, which makes the tundra and tracking the next clipper a lot easier than when doing so with bare ground or even worse 33F and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 observation: if snowlover2 posts about model X, it moved south. I was SO going to mention that the other day but i didnt want to come off as snarky. But since the cats out of the bag... ..well duh there weren't too many model Y's trending north, and besides, why would a guy in Dayton, or Chicago, or wherever give a crap about a trend away from him??? We all mostly post the evidence that favors our back yard. How many posts did josh make in this thread, (not picking on you josh just making a point), in which he was posting about the further north ensemble guidance? Back when this thread started, the axis of snow was on the MI/OH border. Now it's thru central OH and could even jog further south, (still think that is plausible with the strength of this cold coming in). So it kinda makes sense that snowlover would have had a lot of "xx model trending south" posts.....because ummm, well, it TRENDED SOUTH I don't think too many were trending north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Problem for you dudes out east is that south or north this wave dampens to garbage quickly as it heads east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Problem for you dudes out east is that south or north this wave dampens to garbage quickly as it heads east. never thought of that....but thanks sucks the way this is weakening east.... but I won't complain, the trajectory and track is just about the best we could ask for. Lock that in and qpf details will work themselves out, good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 DTX still going 1-2" tonight. Getting an inch of snow yesterday/overnight when I expected a light dusting is a big help, because I know at the very least if I can just pull off a freakin inch tonight there will be a 2" blanket of snow, which makes the tundra and tracking the next clipper a lot easier than when doing so with bare ground or even worse 33F and rain.If your 1 inch of snow that you got last night is not blown all over the place it's gonna look like 2 inches on the ground.Will get an inch for sure but 2 inches that seems a bit high but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 never thought of that....but thanks looks like you have everything under control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 ..well duh there weren't too many model Y's trending north, and besides, why would a guy's in Dayton, or Chicago, or wherever give a crap about a trend away from him??? We all mostly post the evidence that favors our back yard. How many posts did josh make in this thread, (not picking on you josh just making a point), in which he was posting about the further north ensemble guidance? Back when this thread started, the axis of snow was on the MI/OH border. Now it's thru central OH and could even jog further south, (still think that is plausible with the strength of this cold coming in). So it kinda makes sense that snowlover would have had a lot of "xx model trending south" posts.....because ummm, well, it TRENDED SOUTH I don't think too many were trending north. Of course everyone wants it in their backyard and thats their focus. I want cyclone to get a 6" snow so bad I almost felt guilty for not rooting for him lol (since that would hurt me). But I think I have contributed more to the thread than just "x is south" "x is south" "x looks south". And im not picking on snowlover2, I just thought it was funny that ssc mentioned it because his posts stood out to me as well over any others in this thread, & obviously the point of all of us in this thread is we want it in our backyards. If you dont you have a screw loose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 If your 1 inch of snow that you got last night is not blown all over the place it's gonna look like 2 inches on the ground. Will get an inch for sure but 2 inches that seems a bit high but who knows. we started as moderate snow with a temp of 34F before the temp plummeted. Id estimate the first half inch was wet snow and then the last half inch (which includes overnights fairy dust) powder. But its that tundra crunch snow its not blowing too bad. So yes 1" will look like 2", small victories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 WAA in the plains just isn't what i was hoping to see a few days back when this looked like a super-clipper. Ratios will still do work, especially across Iowa but I don't think anyone in our subforum cracks double digits. On the plus side, wouldn't be shocked if we hit 25 or even 30:1 for a period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I should have stuck with my original thoughts on this but I was being piled on for not giving this system way more credit. Hell I even convinced myself that this was not a classic southern trender. This cold shot coming in is so damn strong, it was hard to imagine how this wouldn't dampen and shear coming east, not to mention doing it on a further south trajectory. Single digits to our near north, low teens here....waa looking pathetic, (as alek suggested), this just doesn't have the classic nice clipper look, (at least east of IL). That doesn't mean we can't pull off 3-4" of soap flakes as the atmosphere squeezes out every last bit of moisture available and ratios could be high.....still have my hopes up for that. Biggest risk is a further south/weaker trend. Regardless, this will be our best of the '14-'15 season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 3-5" in the grids for tonight. RPM showing a general 2-4" across the metro. I'll ride 2" with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I should have stuck with my original thoughts on this but I was being piled on for not giving this system way more credit. Hell I even convinced myself that this was not a classic southern trender. This cold shot coming in is so damn strong, it was hard to imagine how this wouldn't dampen and shear coming east, not to mention doing it on a further south trajectory. Single digits to our near north, low teens here....waa looking pathetic, (as alek suggested), this just doesn't have the classic nice clipper look, (at least east of IL). That doesn't mean we can't pull off 3-4" of soap flakes as the atmosphere squeezes out every last bit of moisture available and ratios could be high.....still have my hopes up for that. Biggest risk is a further south/weaker trend. Regardless, this will be our best of the '14-'15 season so far. Liking my 1-2 in call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Last 4 runs of the SREF (through current 9z run): 12 hour mean snowfall totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 -1 on the bank clock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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