A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 GFS a baby step south. I see the 00z guidance coming north a tad. you and gilbert both riding that train. I think track is pretty well set but i think the.25 to .3 QPF we see treats us well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 12z Euro control snow amounts assuming 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Will be interesting to see how LOT handles the upgrading to warnings or advisories as we get closer now with DVN putting Jo Daviess and Stephenson county under a warning for 5-7" and if they do go warnings, what the northern row of counties ends of being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 you and gilbert both riding that train. I think track is pretty well set but i think the.25 to .3 QPF we see treats us well. Yeah....and really not expecting the track change (if it happens) to have a profound affect on totals...only a tiny bump really compared to what most of the guidance and LOT is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 LOT has this under control Agree. Lafayette looking good on LOT map. Don't mind where I'm sitting at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Will be interesting to see how LOT handles the upgrading to warnings or advisories as we get closer now with DVN putting Jo Daviess and Stephenson county under a warning for 5-7" and if they do go warnings, what the northern row of counties ends of being.They can't let DVN sucker them into a warning just for "consistency". Gotta go WWA for the northern tier area. Obviously all pending 0z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 15z SREF plumes with another uptick for LAF. A few stragglers below the mean, but a good number above...12z op NAM being one of them. Click to expand: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 SREF plume up over 8" now for DVN. Feeling pretty confident on my earlier 5-7" first call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 You're actually too far north/east with a colder column/less deep dgz, so I could buy that (ratios not being as high as in the main band). Well of course ratios would always be good in the main band of the clipper, which is the case with any system (as the lift is broader, more persistent and stronger), granted I think the expectation for 25:1 or 30:1 some have is still too high. But it was implied that good ratios would make up for the reduced QPF/moisture north of the main band for much of the clipper discussion. As I feared, that doesn't look to be case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 They can't let DVN sucker them into a warning just for "consistency". Gotta go WWA for the northern tier area. Obviously all pending 0z guidance. Yeah I think northern tier of counties should be a lock for an advisory. Mainly curious about the I-88 corridor of counties and the city. Also, I don't get why DVN went with an advisory for Henry and Bureau county. Seems like a lock for a warning IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Agree. Lafayette looking good on LOT map. Don't mind where I'm sitting at this point. IKK looking real good right now. I think getting to 6" is a legit outcome for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Sref still has Dkb over 7", but I am hesitant to lock in a pick until the south trend is stemmed. Against my better judgement: DKB: 5.6" Cyclone: 7.3" ORD: 4.0" IKK: 6.2" LAF: 5.8" IND: 2.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Sref still has Dkb over 7", but I am hesitant to lock in a pick until the south trend is stemmed. Against my better judgement: DKB: 5.6" Cyclone: 7.3" ORD: 4.0" IKK: 6.2" LAF: 5.8" IND: 2.3" rooting for LAF and Cyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Sref still has Dkb over 7", but I am hesitant to lock in a pick until the south trend is stemmed. Against my better judgement: DKB: 5.6" Cyclone: 7.3" ORD: 4.0" IKK: 6.2" LAF: 5.8" IND: 2.3" I don't really see DKB getting much more than O'Hare. The spread on both of the plumes is pretty large as well. Much more consensus down by Calumet City around 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Sref still has Dkb over 7", but I am hesitant to lock in a pick until the south trend is stemmed. Against my better judgement: DKB: 5.6" Cyclone: 7.3" ORD: 4.0" IKK: 6.2" LAF: 5.8" IND: 2.3" I'm honestly not thinking higher than 4.0" for DKB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 rooting for LAF and Cyclone I'm pulling for cyclone...that 6" drought there is a little ridiculous. Also, if his area does well, chances are LAF will too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 rooting for LAF and Cyclone Don't forget hawkeye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 SREF still averaging a very healthy 6.4" here. Really want to see the 0z guidance before I bet on any numbers yet here. Really hope this system breaks your sub 6" streak Cyclone! ...And Hawkeye too - I know you've haven't had the best time of it picking up big amounts either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I'm pulling for cyclone...that 6" drought there is a little ridiculous. Also, if his area does well, chances are LAF will too. Agree! LAF, Cyc, and Hawk have taken it on the chin one too many times! Cheers to an over achiever! Don't forget hawkeye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Agree! LAF, Cyc, and Hawk have taken it on the chin one too many times! Cheers to an over achiever! I'm pulling for all you guys in those areas, seems like you have missed all the fun for years now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cody Ervin Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 New to the forums here. Reporting in from the eastern Nebraska area and watching this system closely. For now it obviously looks to scrape us and we look to be on about as best edge as you can make here. Though any slight shift south and Boom, could see a couple inches. But for now it appears that eastern Nebraska will see little if any snow from I-80 and south. Looks like central Iowa will be the show on this one. A good 6-10" out there seems probable with someone picking up those 8"-10" amounts in the heaviest bands. A pretty good pocket of moisture and lift developing and sitting right in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 New to the forums here. Reporting in from the eastern Nebraska area and watching this system closely. For now it obviously looks to scrape us and we look to be on about as best edge as you can make here. Though any slight shift south and Boom, could see a couple inches. But for now it appears that eastern Nebraska will see little if any snow from I-80 and south. Looks like central Iowa will be the show on this one. A good 6-10" out there seems probable with someone picking up those 8"-10" amounts in the heaviest bands. A pretty good pocket of moisture and lift developing and sitting right in there. Welcome to the forum! Riding the south edge is probably a good place to be right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Early look at the 21z SREF suggests it will still be kind to those farther north. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I will give the srefs points for consistency. Doubt it scores though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 A quick comparison between the 0z RAP and 18z NAM/GFS on sfc low placement and strength at 15z tomorrow..and the Euro is even south of the GFS at this time I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f027.gif SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f039.gif Looks like means are going to come down here at 21z. Here is the dProg/dt data for Calumet City...no 21z data yet but take a look where 15z is comparatively. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index_means.php?YMD=20150104&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=GYY&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=41.55831529749065&mLON=-88.39324762340667&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Nice plume of moisture on water vapor. This isn't your typical dry system of Canadian origin as has been alluded to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f027.gi SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f039.gi yeah was just gonna post this one of the 21Z SREF.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Looks like means are going to come down here at 21z. Here is the dProg/dt data for Calumet City...no 21z data yet but take a look where 15z is comparatively. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index_means.php?YMD=20150104&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=GYY&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=41.55831529749065&mLON=-88.39324762340667&mTYP=roadmap Looks like it based on the 12 hour map I posted above. Main snow band still running on the northern end of guidance though. Almost looks like it just weakens it a bit more as it heads into your area. Edit: there might be some contamination in there from today's snow though on those previous runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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