Powerball Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 This system isn't actually an Alberta clipper. The wave never even enters Canada. For these reasons I would caution using expectations for a typical clipper in this case. For simplicity, we just tend to label most NW flow systems as clippers. But I understand your point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 This system isn't actually an Alberta clipper. The wave never even enters Canada. For these reasons I would caution using expectations for a typical clipper in this case. It's not even a Manitoba Mauler? Irregardless, I'm going out on a limb and saying it will end up different then is currently modeled even within 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 This system isn't actually an Alberta clipper. The wave never even enters Canada. For these reasons I would caution using expectations for a typical clipper in this case. Isn't the upper level wave that comes into British Columbia later today responsible for our system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I'd still rather be a bit north to allow some wiggle room but yeah, looking pretty good. First call 4-6" Definitely - I'd feel more comfortable if today's 12z Euro comes south a bit. Good first call - I'm thinking 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I'd still rather be a bit north to allow some wiggle room but yeah, looking pretty good. First call 4-6" I'm liking 2-4" for LAF...FWA 3-5" and IND 1-3". Would rather be north of here for this one, with the inevitable last minute north shift...which seems to be the bread and butter of clippers/NW impulses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 For simplicity, we just tend to label most NW flow systems as clippers. But I understand your point... I'm not going far enough to say it won't act similarly, especially since the downstream flow is typical of an Alberta clipper. Just wanted to bring up a different perspective. I also think the further south origin is a significant contributing factor to the higher moisture and potential for warning criteria snows with the system. Will be fun to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I'm liking 2-4"...FWA 3-5" and IND 1-3". Would rather be north of here for this one, with the inevitable last minute shift. Honestly for every one of these that shifted north at the last minute, I can think of about 5 that didn't or even ticked south. We can't take a northward shift obviously, especially on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Honestly for every one of these that shifted north at the last minute, I can think of about 5 that didn't or even ticked south. We can't take a northward shift obviously, especially on the NAM. I don't recall many that shifted south. Most of them that did well here locally had a late north jog in my recollection (2/6/07 being the prime example). Either way, not much wiggle room for us as it stands...but feeling good about getting something measurable with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerStateWX Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 looking like a IWXwx sublimation les fluff stat padder type nuisance event in eastern wi. good times for those to the south west. enjoy the rippage and getiing the ground white again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I don't recall many that shifted south. Most of them that did well here locally had a late north jog in my recollection (2/6/07 being the prime example). Either way, not much wiggle room for us as it stands...but feeling good about getting something measurable with this system. Well, I guess it could be that there was a last minute northward shift but not enough to screw us so I didn't perceive it as a shift. I don't recall that happening many times, though one of those back in 2004 or 2005 is a prime example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 12z WRF-NMM is wayyy south, FWIW.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Total 12z ARW QPF: Total 12z NMM QPF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 This is GEM total snowfall (including what's falling today) post-clipper: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 WxBell snow maps...so bad in more ways than one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Just glancing at the GFS ensembles (mean not out yet), most of them are STILL north of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Just glancing at the GFS ensembles (mean not out yet), most of them are STILL north of the OP. They've been nudging south though over the last 4-5 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 12z Euro bumped a little south and a little wetter. But remember, this is a 10:1 ratio map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 They've been nudging south though over the last 4-5 runs. Oh they have, I just meant they have consistently been a bit north of the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 12z Euro bumped a little south and a little wetter. But remember, this is a 10:1 ratio map euro snow 3.png looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerStateWX Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 we be dabin' in racine come the 12z euro tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 looks good for south of here lol but hopefully ratios can make it a decent event up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Good luck to you boys down south. First and final call: 1". Oy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Presently thinking 1-3 inches around Indy as this thing keeps slipping a bit south. Impressed by moisture feed with this system. Chicago does have that winter storm watch. But things could change as we get closer. Bare ground here now with some occasional sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 for south of here lol but hopefully ratios can make it a decent event up this way. still liking my thoughts from earlier, you should be good for 3-4" out that way (i'm assuming the south trend bleeding has stopped) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 looks good for south of here lol but hopefully ratios can make it a decent event up this way. He's banking on the fore mentioned last minute bump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 P&C west of LAF just across the border is 3-7. KIND hasn't updated grids yet. Hopefully that forecast will carry east across north central In. I can't take this upcoming cold shot with no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Grids for Marion calling for 3-5 Jack. You're gold....er, white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Skilling's RPM Model on his blog showing a nice hit from central IL over to central IN between LAF to Kokomo to north side of Indpls. Hope springs eternal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Grids for Marion calling for 3-5 Jack. You're gold....er, white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Feeling pretty good about this clipper over here in Iowa. A couple models have CR in the bullseye, a couple are a little south, but either way my entire area will get some solid snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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