gosaints Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Northern fringe but ratios should help Yep 3-5 looks like a good bet unless another jog south occurs which is certainly on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Yep 3-5 looks like a good bet unless another jog south occurs which is certainly on the table I don't think we see a south jog as much as the more amped models and sref members will join the pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Disappointed with the shift I see this morning. You were right gosaints, the infamous south shift looks inevitable. You'll do well at your place. Just another 1-3" run of the mill in the Cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 WSWatch for LOT....will upgrade to Warnings or Advisories where appilicable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 WSWatch for LOT....will upgrade to Warnings or Advisories where appilicable I didn't know we were under one until I saw your post. Map just shows the WC advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 First call for here/QC 5-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I didn't know we were under one until I saw your post. Map just shows the WC advisory. lol, yeah I guess the WC advisories trump for us...but I guess the chill is next up at the plate regardless... 3Z Plumer has a mean up to 7 inch @ JOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 12z NAM is a great hit from Cedar Rapids through the QC, and down to LAF. Nice 0.4-0.5" precip band in there. Would indicate some 2" per hour snows for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Cyclone looking good on the 12k and 4k NAM's ninja'd by the man himself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 tick-tocking south. Looking more and more like i-70 could be on the southern end of the good stuff instead of just on the southern end of the precip shield. call me CAUTIOUSLY not pessimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 12z NAM is a great hit from Cedar Rapids through the QC, and down to LAF. Nice 0.4-0.5" precip band in there. Would indicate some 2" per hour snows for a time. The two of us may actually have our 4-year >6" storm drought broken by a clipper. Then we'll have to talk about our 4-year 7/8/9/10" storm drought. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 The two of us may actually have our 4-year >6" storm drought broken by a clipper. Then we'll have to talk about our 4-year 7/8/9/10" storm drought. lol Lol, yeah I'm not surprised it's a clipper that may break it. Seems like the SW systems always disappoint somehow. Whether it's p-type, dry-slot, thread the needles, or whatever. Just keep feeding us clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I am not liking the south trend, about the only thing in my favor though is that widespread snow looks to occur well north of the heaviest swath. So, barring any radical last minute shifts, DTW should see at minimum 0.10" qpf, probably more than that. On the contrary, there is a RAZOR sharp cutoff south of the heaviest snow band. At first I thought it was NAM being NAM but even the GFS basically shows it. So realistically 30 miles south of the best snow may not see a flake. 09z SREF mean still 4.6" for DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 With the cold locked in.. A two inch snow will be way more productive than the last two months of systems combined. The trends of the season have not been beneficial as of late for many of the subforum. I'll be grateful for the 2" we receive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 With the cold locked in.. A two inch snow will be way more productive than the last two months of systems combined. The trends of the season have not been beneficial as of late for many of the subforum. I'll be grateful for the 2" we receive With a possible flash freeze and snow squalls this afternoon you will be doing some pre-clipper salting. Speaking of salt, even if its only a 2-inch snow, its going to be a plow type snow because it will be so cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 With a possible flash freeze and snow squalls this afternoon you will be doing some pre-clipper salting. Speaking of salt, even if its only a 2-inch snow, its going to be a plow type snow because it will be so cold. A two inch snow is ... Presalt, keep the isles scraped and salted and clean up between 4am -7am and re-salt. I often scrape a 3/4-1" snow just to speed up the results of wet asphalt. A light salting is 3 tons of material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 9Z Plume for JOT has a mean of about 7 inches for the this event... ORD...7.5 inch mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if we a see a last minute jog north with this one. Tends to happen sometimes with these little buggers. I'm going to stick it and say 3-6" for much of the CWA, with lollipops of 6+". I think the WSW was a good call but it's going to make the city go crazy spreading salt :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Would it be possible for any of you to post snowfall maps for the 6z vs 12z runs when complete? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Looking at the SREF Plumes for means around IL, provided i did my math correctly to subtract any lingering forecasted snow for today: MLI: 7.8" RFD: 9.6" DKB: 9.0" JOT: 7.9" ORD: 7.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Gfs south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 9Z Plume for JOT has a mean of about 7 inches for the this event... ORD...7.5 inch mean Feel like these well modeled amped clippers tend to hedge a bit south and weaker as we get inside 36-48 hrs (there is a reason we don't see double digit totals from clippers all too often) but nothing crazy. The track has been more or less on ice for days outside the narrow corridor of possible warning criteria snows. On the plus side for us on the northern edges, the northern extent is usually rather broad and benefits a nice wide swath was quality ratios, whereas you have to gamble with an oftentimes nasty gradient on the southern edge. That said best mesoscale banding will be at least 50 miles to our west southwest. Riding 3.3333 for MYB. Liking about another 1" on top of that down your way. I think you can toss the overly aggressive northern members skewing the SREF means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Feel like these well modeled amped clippers tend to hedge a bit south and weaker as we get inside 36-48 hrs (there is a reason we don't see double digit totals from clippers all too often) but nothing crazy. The track has been more or less on ice for days outside the narrow corridor of possible warning criteria snows. On the plus side for us on the northern edges, the northern extent is usually rather broad and benefits a nice wide swath was quality ratios, whereas you have to gamble with an oftentimes nasty gradient on the southern edge. That said best mesoscale banding will be at least 50 miles to our west southwest. Riding 3.3333 for MYB. Liking about another 1" on top of that down your way. I think you can toss the overly aggressive northern members skewing the SREF means. I agree....even if I kill the top 3 it still gives me around 6 inches.....5 sounds like a good number in my mind for mby...with the nice 850 punctuations I could see some nice banding setting up in spots (which is fairly typical)...but a bit of guess at this juncture who precisely gets it EDIT: re-reading your post...I also agree for now....on the best banding spot...a nice corridor from north central iowa pointing towards PIA seems like a good guesstimate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if we a see a last minute jog north with this one. Tends to happen sometimes with these little buggers. I'm going to stick it and say 3-6" for much of the CWA, with lollipops of 6+". I think the WSW was a good call but it's going to make the city go crazy spreading salt :/ Clippers usually start north on the models, then go south south south, then jog back north at the last minute. However the wild card here is the brutal cold airmass. That would say the clipper goes south, but the +NAO would say the clipper goes north. Just more model mayhem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I feel like LAF is in a good spot. Any further jumps south in the GFS and LAF will be too far north In reality, I think a blend between the GFS and Euro is a good bet at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Feel like these well modeled amped clippers tend to hedge a bit south and weaker as we get inside 36-48 hrs (there is a reason we don't see double digit totals from clippers all too often) but nothing crazy. The track has been more or less on ice for days outside the narrow corridor of possible warning criteria snows. On the plus side for us on the northern edges, the northern extent is usually rather broad and benefits a nice wide swath was quality ratios, whereas you have to gamble with an oftentimes nasty gradient on the southern edge. That said best mesoscale banding will be at least 50 miles to our west southwest. Riding 3.3333 for MYB. Liking about another 1" on top of that down your way. I think you can toss the overly aggressive northern members skewing the SREF means. The northern extent can usually be broad, but it's also typically lighter than modeled (as models are always too quick to saturate the airmass with the best lift being higher up in the atmosphere). 1-3" still is a good call here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Clippers usually start north on the models, then go south south south, then jog back north at the last minute. However the wild card here is the brutal cold airmass. That would say the clipper goes south, but the +NAO would say the clipper goes north. Just more model mayhem. Although the teleconnections don't actually show an -NAO (as in a strong surface high/ridge centered over Greenland), there's still a Greenland-like block in place between the west coast ridge and the low pressure center spinning around Newfoundland. That will prevent much digging/amplification of the clipper to allow for any appreciable northward shifts, especially with it being caught within a 150kt upper level flow out of the WNW and virtually little/no ridging ahead of it... The intensity of the shortwave is pretty much being driven purely by the impressively tight baroclinic zone it's riding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 This system isn't actually an Alberta clipper. The wave never even enters Canada. For these reasons I would caution using expectations for a typical clipper in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 one thing the models seem to agree on is that the swath of accumulating snow will be more expansive north of the heaviest swath with a sharp cutoff south of the swath. So while id probably rather be in Toledo than Detroit for the best snow, we have more buffer room for accumulation than those south of the main swath. See above response to Alek... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I feel like LAF is in a good spot. Any further jumps south in the GFS and LAF will be too far north In reality, I think a blend between the GFS and Euro is a good bet at this point. I'd still rather be a bit north to allow some wiggle room but yeah, looking pretty good. First call 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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