Harry Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 BTW the 12z euro ensemble mean also had the surface low over Peoria.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 The way I see it, I'd lean more toward the globals as of now for placement but the mesos may be useful for the mesoscale banding aspect as we get closer. But again, lack of sampling so lower confidence in favored corridor as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 The way I see it, I'd lean more toward the globals as of now for placement but the mesos may be useful for the mesoscale banding aspect as we get closer. But again, lack of sampling so lower confidence in favored corridor as of now. I would be more concerned about a miss to the south if we had a -NAO. That is me though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 SREF rocking about 9" in Dkb, with a member showing a bit over 18" lol Yeah I got everything from 3.5-17.5"! Mean of 9.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 UKIE is fairly juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Overnight timing will help with impacts in some areas but where that doesn't happen, impacts will be high given that there should be a period of high snowfall rates with the very cold temps. Makes me think of 2/6/2007 around here...about 6" of snow and an absolute debacle on the roads given the rates and temps in the single digits to around 10F during the storm. Could see something like that wherever the main band is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 BTW the 12z euro ensemble mean also had the surface low over Peoria.. Forgot to look at that. So NAM takes it over DVN while the GFS takes it over SPI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Even seeing some 70 kt barbs at 850 mb on the NAM. Quite a dynamic little system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Even seeing some 70 kt barbs at 850 mb on the NAM. Quite a dynamic little system. Yeah, been following that....she should pack a nice little punch if things verify there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Euro is a little south/weaker with the sfc low but the main snow swath runs from Sioux Falls to Clinton, IA to south side of Chicago. Looks a little lighter on QPF as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I know there are concerns about southern areas being screwed by overachieving WAA/dryslotting or a last minute northward shift, but there will also be a limit to how far north this storm goes given the pseudo-block in place (between the PNA ridge and the 50/50 low) and the progressive mean flow out of the WNW. The vigorous LLJ will only do so much to amplify this storm and help place the precip shield further NE. I would feel more comfortable if I were south of WI and MI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Euro is a little south/weaker with the sfc low but the main snow swath runs from Sioux Falls to Clinton, IA to south side of Chicago. Looks a little lighter on QPF as well. Looks like .2 to .3 qpf in the main band. Could still fluff up to near warning criteria with good ratios if it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I think this event could have some parallels to 1/20/12: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=77934&source=2 Modeled snow swath looks pretty similar and there were localized amounts of 7-9" near I-80 in the LOT CWA surrounded by a general 4-7". That was also a cold storm with higher than average ratios, though duration was longer in that event than this one is likely to have. Sent from my SM-G900V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 6z NAM is weaker and south some. Guess it finally wants to join the consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 6z NAM is weaker and south some. Guess it finally wants to join the consensus. Still juicy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Still juicy though. Yeah weird. Weaker but snowiest run yet with a 12" bullseye near CID. Sfc low passes of PIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 On my phone so not going to post images but both the euro snowfall mean and control have a good snow swath axis for northern IL and only a few euro members are south of the op which would line up more with the 0z GFS. Most members are good hits for along/north of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I know there are concerns about southern areas being screwed by overachieving WAA/dryslotting or a last minute northward shift, but there will also be a limit to how far north this storm goes given the pseudo-block in place (between the PNA ridge and the 50/50 low) and the progressive mean flow out of the WNW. The vigorous LLJ will only do so much to amplify this storm and help place the precip shield further NE. I would feel more comfortable if I were south of WI and MI... one thing the models seem to agree on is that the swath of accumulating snow will be more expansive north of the heaviest swath with a sharp cutoff south of the swath. So while id probably rather be in Toledo than Detroit for the best snow, we have more buffer room for accumulation than those south of the main swath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 On my phone so not going to post images but both the euro snowfall mean and control have a good snow swath axis for northern IL and only a few euro members are south of the op which would line up more with the 0z GFS. Most members are good hits for along/north of I-80.Adding on for other ensemble reports...03z SREF nudged a bit south, 06z NAM now on the northern side of that suite. 00z NCEP also went south, the majority of members want to track it near Springfield, IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Adding on for other ensemble reports... 03z SREF nudged a bit south, 06z NAM now on the northern side of that suite. 00z NCEP also went south, the majority of members want to track it near Springfield, IL. The 3z SREF mean 12hr snow swath is still on the north side of guidance looking like the 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 The 3z SREF mean 12hr snow swath is still on the north side of guidance looking like the 0z NAM I was just going to post that. If anything its a bit north of the 21z SREF Looking at the last 4 runs of the SREF mean, this was the best one yet for DTW: 03z: 5.5" 21z: 4.7" 15z: 3.5" 09z: 4.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 The 3z SREF mean 12hr snow swath is still on the north side of guidance looking like the 0z NAMGood to hear, since most everything else is looking south. I'm just glancing over the cyclone tracking charts for the SREF reports.3z SREF http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.srperts.2015010403.east_coast.single.png 21z http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.srperts.2015010321.east_coast.single.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 The 3z SREF mean 12hr snow swath is still on the north side of guidance looking like the 0z NAM Hopefully the bleeding stops with the 06z runs and we see some adjustments back north with the 12z run. Always that storm that defies everything and i sure hope this one is not it. +nao says this should come back north but yeah models saying not so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Hopefully the bleeding stops with the 06z runs and we see some adjustments back north with the 12z run. Always that storm that defies everything and i sure hope this one is not it. +nao says this should come back north but yeah models saying not so? 12z should get some sampling. 6z nam and gfs nudged south, srefs nudged north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 12z should get some sampling. 6z nam and gfs nudged south, srefs nudged north. Shouldn't be till the 00z run that we get some sampling which may not be much considering the part of Canada this thing will be coming into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Shouldn't be till the 00z run that we get some sampling which may not be much considering the part of Canada this thing will be coming into. Going in blind, like everything else this winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Going in blind, like everything else this winter lol Pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Liking my call. Clippers usually dig south of globals outside 48 hrs but nothing radical. We should see consensus improve today. Nice hit for all of LOT, locked and loaded, heaviest south. Geos magnet will need a miracle. 2-3 northern burbs lake County il 3-6 city cook co 6-10 southern cwa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Looking like advisory criteria should be met here. Wants that thing hits the US it really races Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Looking like advisory criteria should be met here. Wants that thing hits the US it really races Northern fringe but ratios should help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.