pondo1000 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Yea...can't put any lipstick on this pig of a run for us on the southern flank. Only hope is that the 48+hr nam is being the 48+hr nam.Ask yourself if you would rest any easier had the NAM shown a more southern track. Tomorrow it will be different. Always is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 About 3-6" of snow from this is contaminated by the ongoing storm, but even then... link to the conversion table http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/?n=toolswaterequiv Based on progged surface temps, it's thinking 30-40:1 ratios...maybe even more in some areas. This isn't the best way to determine ratios as we all know, so use with extreme caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 SREF mean bumps amounts from 1.5"(15z) to 3.5" on the latest run. The 1-2" range looks good for YYZ. Even if a more northern track works out, soundings are far from isothermal around here. As a result, ratios are probably lower than 20:1 as the mean parcel temp(where lift/saturation is present) are colder than the DGZ range. The vort max is also weakening upon arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 00z RPM FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 SREF rocking about 9" in Dkb, with a member showing a bit over 18" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 link to the conversion table http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/?n=toolswaterequiv Based on progged surface temps, it's thinking 30-40:1 ratios...maybe even more in some areas. This isn't the best way to determine ratios as we all know, so use with extreme caution. It is a nice weenie tease for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Ask yourself if you would rest any easier had the NAM shown a more southern track. Tomorrow it will be different. Always is. oh believe me...I don't trust the nam. If fact there are some here who remind us weenies on a regular basis that the nam + 48 shouldn't even be run lol. I remember last winter in late Feb there were some storms that slid south of us that the nam was way north and hammering us in this time frame. Granted those were different types of systems, but the point remains...the nam is the nam. I still think it's safe to ride the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 48hr rgem would probably indicate that the ggem will stay with a more southern solution, (at least south of the nam) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Up there with the bigger DGZ's I can recall. Solid 400 mb deep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 This is the first clipper the upgraded models have dealt with so i wouldn't get too comfortable with any solution just yet and i would forget about the OLD known model biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 0z GFS staying on the south track and maybe a touch south of the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Looks good for I-70 in IN/OH and north of 70 in IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 This is the first clipper the upgraded models have dealt with so i wouldn't get too comfortable with any solution just yet and i would forget about the OLD known model biases. Agreed. I would not get comfortable with the models they tend to fluctuate from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 0z PGFS almost identical to the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 I think I'd lean to the somewhat more north/stronger solution. Just a hunch that you'll spin up a stronger low level circulation along that baroclinic zone which will lead to stronger WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Agreed. I would not get comfortable with the models they tend to fluctuate from run to run. Plus it has another day or so before it is even sampled. Will be nice to see how the models handle these kinds of systems.. So far all we have had was Christmas and this current one from the south/sw. I think I'd lean to the somewhat more north/stronger solution. Just a hunch that you'll spin up a stronger low level circulation along that baroclinic zone which will lead to stronger WAA. Hope you are right.. I'll feel better once this thing is sampled.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I think I'd lean to the somewhat more north/stronger solution. Just a hunch that you'll spin up a stronger low level circulation along that baroclinic zone which will lead to stronger WAA. Agreed, it wouldn't be surprising if other models tick a bit north tonight although it might also be one of those situations where it won't be corrected until it crosses the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Wasn't the wave sampled already by the RAOB network in Alaska for the 12z runs today (before it went back over water)? If so, that sampling certainly didn't lead to the improvements some of us want... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Agreed, it wouldn't be surprising if other models tick a bit north tonight although it might also be one of those situations where it won't be corrected until it crosses the Rockies.will be interesting to see the gfs ensembles because they have consistently further north of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 So what exactly defines the baroclinic zone in this situation?...I mean thats one hell of a brutal airmass and its pressing pretty far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Wasn't the wave sampled already by the RAOB network in Alaska for the 12z runs today (before it went back over water)? If so, that sampling certainly didn't lead to the improvements some of us want... I don't know how as it ( the core of it ) was in the Pacific south of AK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I don't know how as it ( the core of it ) was in the Pacific south of AK? A couple of posters (including Rainman) implied this earlier in the thread, at least that one of the RAOB sites got data on this system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Wasn't the wave sampled already by the RAOB network in Alaska for the 12z runs today (before it went back over water)? If so, that sampling certainly didn't lead to the improvements some of us want... Maybe one site partially sampled the fringe of it but that isn't much sampling if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Maybe one site partially sampled the fringe of it but that isn't much sampling if at all. Pretty much it. Can clearly see it above that most of it was still in the Pacific.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 We will see what the EURO does later but with little to no sampling, definitely more inclined to trust the globals than the mesoscale models, particularly when they have been fairly consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 A couple of posters (including Rainman) implied this earlier in the thread, at least that one of the RAOB sites got data on this system... Yep, the site on Kodiak Island might have gotten a shot at some sampling, but certainly nothing substantial. Here was the post on it: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45273-15-16-clipper-system/page-5#entry3226802 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Yep, the site on Kodiak Island might have gotten a shot at some sampling, but certainly nothing substantial. Here was the post on it: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45273-15-16-clipper-system/page-5#entry3226802 Thanks. And I noticed you both were actually discussing yesterday's 00z runs and not the 12z runs (so that was my mistake). What I was getting at is the sampling that took place didn't lead to solutions any different than what we've seen on the 12z and the 00z runs so far. But of course the shortwave in question is still evolving, and that could change once it re-enters the RAOB network. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 What the hell was that? Talking the GEM which has the QPF rushing out way ahead of the surface low? wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 When the surface low reaches Peoria the QPF is across S.MI/IN all the way to the NJ coast.. Thus a bit to the east of the surface low.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 0z Ukie also looks the same as GFS/PGFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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