A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 On 1/5/2015 at 1:38 PM, Chicago WX said: Last 4 runs of the SREF (through current 9z run): 12 hour mean snowfall totals nice looking trend for your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 GRR forecast discussion went from apocalyptic last night, to generally less than an inch through the period. Lol. Here comes boring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 On 1/5/2015 at 1:36 PM, pondo1000 said: Liking my 1-2 in call lol...I guess you can ONLY be pleasantly surprised with that call...don't blame you. On that note, plumes are up to 5.7" median for us, with 4 at 6"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 On 1/5/2015 at 1:39 PM, A-L-E-K said: nice looking trend for your area I still think we pull off 3-5 from this. WWA was a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 looks like just noise changes with the 12z NAM, maybe a hair quicker but that's about it. good luck to those looking to end some particularly nasty futility streaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Last 4 runs of the NAM: total snowfall Looking good for 3"+ for the QC, PIA, ORD, FWA, DAY, CMH, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Can't speak for other locations, but snow ratios in lower Michigan look like they could be rather poor...maybe 12:1. Could potentially be even worse. Ascent is totally displaced above the DGZ. Having a deep DGZ doesn't do much good if all your crystal generation is happening above it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 returns breaking a tad early (and south) in nebraska, at least relative to what the 12z NAM is selling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 starting to look the part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 12z 4km NAM total QPF maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 9Z plume for JOT has the mean (after I took out another donk run of 15 inches) up to nearly 8 inches.... all but a few are between 7 and 9 inches... ORD numbers with same circumstances as above.... 7 inches....most are between 6 and 8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 On 1/5/2015 at 3:03 PM, Gilbertfly said: 9Z plume for JOT has the mean (after I took out another donk run of 15 inches) up to nearly 8 inches.... all but a few are between 7 and 9 inches... hard to ignore this late in the game and they did well on NW flow events last winter ORD clustered tightly around 6-8 but we've added some <3" clunkers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 On 1/5/2015 at 3:03 PM, Gilbertfly said: 9Z plume for JOT has the mean (after I took out another donk run of 15 inches) up to nearly 8 inches.... all but a few are between 7 and 9 inches... ORD numbers with same circumstances as above.... 7 inches....most are between 6 and 8 inches DKB has a good grouping between 5-7", which a good band and good ratio may produce. With the south trend, thinking 4" is more realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 On 1/5/2015 at 3:05 PM, A-L-E-K said: hard to ignore this late in the game and they did well on NW flow events last winter ORD clustered tightly around 6-8 but we've added some <3" clunkers yeah....kinda head scratching myself...even though I was pulling for similar numbers in my "call" ... but with other guidance thus far through the evening and early this morning it seems odd. I guess will see if the clunkers pick up some friends in the next run...clearly JOT with a little more wiggle room for higher totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 On 1/5/2015 at 2:59 PM, Chicago WX said: 12z 4km NAM total QPF maps 4km nam iowa.png 4km nam chicago.png 4km nam indiana.png 4km nam ohio.png Loving the way we and you guys are lining up. Brings back great memories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 On 1/5/2015 at 3:14 PM, cyclone77 said: Loving the way we and you guys are lining up. Brings back great memories. Vintage December 2010...but without the nuclear -AO/-NAO. Those were fun times for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathernerd Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Looks like Indianapolis is in the sweet spot this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 On 1/5/2015 at 3:03 PM, Gilbertfly said: 9Z plume for JOT has the mean (after I took out another donk run of 15 inches) up to nearly 8 inches.... all but a few are between 7 and 9 inches... ORD numbers with same circumstances as above.... 7 inches....most are between 6 and 8 inches what about PIA (thanks) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 SREF plume up to 10" for DVN. Pretty beefy, and would imply LSRs of over 20:1. Wouldn't expect that, but suppose it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 On 1/5/2015 at 3:14 PM, cyclone77 said: Loving the way we and you guys are lining up. Brings back great memories. LOT map says the drought ends cyclone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 IND 9z SREF mean snowfall is 5.5". Decent cluster above that too. LAF: 7.2" (clunkiest member has 2.6", weeniest has 9.7") IKK: 7.5" (3.8" on the low side, 12.6" on the high) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 SREF going hard in the paint for most of us, pulling for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 On 1/5/2015 at 3:21 PM, janetjanet998 said: what about PIA (thanks) just under 7" although unlike those further north, it's being crippled but a couple real turds. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150105&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=PIA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=40.56363691925956&mLON=-89.94428313598632&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 On 1/5/2015 at 3:21 PM, janetjanet998 said: what about PIA (thanks) 6.8" mean, with several under 2" clunkers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 On 1/5/2015 at 3:21 PM, janetjanet998 said: what about PIA (thanks) here ya go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 A few other mean snowfall totals from the 9z SREF: BMI: 6.5" CMH: 4.8" CMI: 6.1" DAY: 5.2" FWA: 5.8" MIE: 6.7" OKK: 7.1" PIA: 6.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 On 1/5/2015 at 3:05 PM, A-L-E-K said: hard to ignore this late in the game and they did well on NW flow events last winter ORD clustered tightly around 6-8 but we've added some <3" clunkers FWIW, SREF mean is suggesting ratios either side of 30:1 in N IL. Probably why it's that bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 On 1/5/2015 at 3:32 PM, Hoosier said: FWIW, SREF mean is suggesting ratios either side of 30:1 in N IL. Probably why it's that bullish. i made a post about that earlier, i do think we go over 20:1, QPF is my greater concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 On 1/5/2015 at 3:27 PM, Chicago WX said: A few other mean snowfall totals from the 9z SREF: BMI: 6.5" CMH: 4.8" CMI: 6.1" DAY: 5.2" FWA: 5.8" MIE: 6.7" OKK: 7.1" PIA: 6.8" which site do you use? I was showing CMH 5.55" plume edit: I was taking it to the end which included some additional padding after the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 On 1/5/2015 at 3:35 PM, A-L-E-K said: i made a post about that earlier, i do think we go over 20:1, QPF is my greater concern Agree. At ORD specifically, the mean has .23" qpf and 7" of snow for a ratio of 30:1. So it's not like it's really wet, just really bullish with ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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