Chicago Storm Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 On 1/2/2015 at 5:40 PM, Hoosier said: Weekend system and this...things are looking up in a general sense. Better than Bo being the only one to get snow. Better enjoy it before the pattern flips back after mid-late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 On 1/2/2015 at 5:51 PM, Chicago Storm said: Better enjoy it before the pattern flips back after mid-late next week. The Euro EPS would indicate that but the GEFS has consistently been saying no to that idea. Doesn't look as cold as next week, but keeps ridging generally over Alaska and the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 On 1/2/2015 at 4:07 PM, blizzardof96 said: Nice hit on the 12z GFS. Ratios will be temp dependant but at least 15:1 seems very likely. Someone will pick up 6" out of this. USA_APCPI24_sfc_108-1.gif Depending on where the sfc low ends up tracking, we could have a LES component too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 On 1/2/2015 at 6:06 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Depending on where the sfc low ends up tracking, we could have a LES component too. Even if its not a classic LE signal(due east flow) we tend to over perform when SE flow leads northern branch features. Probably a combo of added lake moisture and oak ridge upsloping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Euro still decently north of GFS and GEM. Makes most sense given placement of the surface low, hopefully we see this come further south over time. Nevertheless, still a solid 2-4 across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Tammie Souza going big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 ^ at first I thought that was for this weekend. But thru Tuesday that might verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 Someone needs to tell her it's not the polar vortex next week...when it's really a strong arctic high originating from western Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Click bait hype machine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 On 1/2/2015 at 7:41 PM, Thundersnow12 said: Someone needs to tell her it's not the polar vortex next week...when it's really a strong arctic high originating from western Canada. Bingo. Will not be the last time we hear polar vortex in next 7 days. Bangs head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 2, 2015 Author Share Posted January 2, 2015 As usual in these setups the 18z NAM seems too aggressive with the WAA and is causing the system to be a little further north. But it's juicy though, a nice 7-9" swath across southern MN/northeast IA/southwest WI and still snowing good at 84hr east of there. Even looks like part of the LOT CWA would do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 18z GFS looks like it shifted south some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 18z PGFS also shifted south some which keeps it in line with the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Thankful this system (or the weekend one) won't impact my flight to or from Phoenix tonight and Wednesday. Hopefully I'll get to come pack to to at least some depth of fresh snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 On 1/2/2015 at 7:41 PM, Thundersnow12 said: Someone needs to tell her it's not the polar vortex next week...when it's really a strong arctic high originating from western Canada. "A strong arctic high originating from western Canada" doesn't generate as much as of a buzz as "the polar vortex" for an industry that depends on receiving a ton of clicks and views (or in that case specifically, retweets) from average joes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 MPX getting fairly excited about the Monday night/Tuesday system. Seems to take a lot to get them going in that office. Models seem to be lining up nicely for this one. With the nice dgz and temps below 0 we should get some fatty flakes. Won't take much to pile up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Take Heart Winter Lovers; While One System's Snowstorm Chances Have Faded, One Gains Strength! http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2015/01/take-heart-winter-lovers-while-one.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 Early guess is the 0z NAM will be south of the 18z run given the placement of the baroclinic zone east of the rockies at 51hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 0z NAM still has a more north track Same as 18z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Yep, NAM staying north. Nice hit for S MN, S WI, and far N IL. 0.0 flakes for the LAF. The bleat goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 Yeah looked like it would come out south early on but looks a bit stronger/wetter by 78hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 On 1/3/2015 at 2:47 AM, Chicago WX said: Yep, NAM staying north. Nice hit for S MN, S WI, and far N IL. 0.0 flakes for the LAF. The bleat goes on. Eh, NAM is where we want it at this point imo. We may not end up in the best area but I'm still liking the chances for accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 The continued signal for an extremely deep DGZ continues now on the NAM. This is along I-90 in northern IL at 78hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 On 1/3/2015 at 2:50 AM, Hoosier said: Eh, NAM is where we want it at this point imo. We may not end up in the best area but I'm still liking the chances for accumulating snow. 12z Euro was a whiff for us too. Not liking our chances, but maybe we can squeeze out a few flakes. I'm not asking for much at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 On 1/3/2015 at 2:54 AM, Chicago WX said: 12z Euro was a whiff for us too. Not liking our chances, but maybe we can squeeze out a few flakes. I'm not asking for much at this point. It's early and models have been throwing curveballs in the short range lately but I'm optimistic for at least 1-2"...hopefully more if we can get a south trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Feeling good about this one. Looks like a fairly large area of snow, so will have a little higher margin of error for changes in track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 One thing's for sure, this thing's gonna haul ass. Not gonna snow for a huge amount of time at any location, but the upside is because of the very intense lift you guys have already pointed out it's gonna rip very hard in the main band. Also looks like some decent winds will be following closely behind the clipper, as the 1040+ high moves in from the northwest. GFS showing some 30-40mph gust potential, which would likely blow that fluffy stuff around quite nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 FWIW, early SREF runs shows a substantial area of 25 to 35:1 ratios. Looks like some good snow rates will be possible if things hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 0z GFS looking like another shift south at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 This is gonna be a good run for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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