Thundersnow12 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Figured this one would get started soon and it's nice to have something to look at past this weekend threat. I myself love these types of setups. The wave responsible is still way out over the nrn pacific west of Alaska but is fcst to come ashore and quickly dive ESE out of BC/Alberta on the srn fringe of the polar jet along the baroclinic zone and arctic front of the next shot of really cold air to come down into the CONUS. They are usually fast moving open waves but you get these low level cyclones to quickly spin up due to the tight thermal gradient and with plenty of WAA and frontogenesis, you can get some hefty banding just north of the strongest WAA along with high snow ratios to produce good snow totals, like what the 0z GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 0z GFS took a pretty big hop south from the 18z. 18z had widespread 6-12" over most of WI and MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 0z Ukie has a track just south of the OH River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 0z GGEM looks like it goes between the GFS and Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dayton1996 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Thanks for posting this snow dude from Dayton. Fingers crossed that we get a nice shot of snow here in Dayton, and hopefully get into a repeat pattern of storms and upper-level disturbances. We need to build a snow pack around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 12z GFS with a stripe of 6-8" through northern IL and a 9" bullseye out by cycloneville. Very high ratio event on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 I am not a fan of these storm/event threads this year because none of them are working out lol. That said, I too have had my eye on this clipper for days because while the GEM and EURO have been up and down with it, I have NEVER seen such outstanding agreement as I have seen with this clipper on the GFS and its ensembles, since its been like 8-9 days out and we are now entering the 5-day out period. The placement obviously oscillates run to run and ensemble to ensemble, but they show a consistent widespread band of snow, easily the most widespread snow event of the season for the midwest/lakes, and a nice, cold snow too (temps in the single digits and teens). If it ends up failing I most definitely be in the banter/complaint thread and this time not for banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 12zggem says 'what clipper?' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dayton1996 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Oh well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 it was a good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 12zggem says 'what clipper?' The ggem and its ensembles have had no consistency whatsoever with track, strength, or existence of this clipper. Each run that Ive looked at (since its been on my radar with the GFS consistency) there has been some that take it way north, some way south, some dont have it all, some have it warning-criteria type snow, some dont have a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The ggem and its ensembles have had no consistency whatsoever with track, strength, or existence of this clipper. Each run that Ive looked at (since its been on my radar with the GFS consistency) there has been some that take it way north, some way south, some dont have it all, some have it warning-criteria type snow, some dont have a flake. consistency has never meant much of anything when it comes to the gfs. I do think the ggem is too dry, but I also think the gfs will calm down. The euro looks like a compromise between the two leaning closer to the ggem. widespread dustings to some 2" lollipops is probably the best call as of right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dayton1996 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Sorry guys. I got excited. It's been too long since accumulating snow has fallen. I should have stayed off the thread and kept my damn mouth shut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The ggem and its ensembles have had no consistency whatsoever with track, strength, or existence of this clipper. Each run that Ive looked at (since its been on my radar with the GFS consistency) there has been some that take it way north, some way south, some dont have it all, some have it warning-criteria type snow, some dont have a flake. 12z PGFS lost it too but it's also been doing that and next run its back. 12z Ukie still tracks just south of the OH River and it looks like 12z GFS had another small shift south. Might end up a most of IL/IN/OH event when all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Wave is still way out there but this easily looks like the best clipper potential that the subforum has seen so far this winter. Gotta be careful to not fall into a trap of assuming everything is going to suck because winter hasn't been good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 The 12z Euro has the clipper and a decent one. Best signal it's shown so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Wave is still way out there but this easily looks like the best clipper potential that the subforum has seen so far this winter. Well given its "competition" thus far, that's not saying much... The upcoming weekend storm was also our best snowstorm potential so far this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Wave is still way out there but this easily looks like the best clipper potential that the subforum has seen so far this winter. Gotta be careful to not fall into a trap of assuming everything is going to suck because winter hasn't been good so far. ggem is usually the clipper-sniffer model, so it showing nothing could be telling. The euro has never been impressed either, 12z shows 1-2" primarily north of i-70. When it get's into the nam range, I'd bet the nam goes bonkers with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The 12z Euro has the clipper and a decent one. Best signal it's shown so far. ??? it's weak....widespread 1-2" at least according to wxbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 12z euro....most of that in IL and w. MI is from the weekend storm. The 'brunt' of the clipper are the amounts in northern IN, and OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Euro is probably higher than that in reality. Remember this will be a high ratio event as it stands now and 10:1 maps won't do it justice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Euro is probably higher than that in reality. Remember this will be a high ratio event as it stands now. could be, but overall the signal is this is a very weak system, even as far as clippers go. Granted, these can definitely model stronger over time and granted, it still has the potential to be the best hit we've had all winter, (how sad is that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Clippers are not usually the best modeled type of system 5+ days out. I'd probably wouldn't get too high or too low on what guidance is spitting out right now. That being said, I think parts of IA, S WI, N IL, S MI, N IN, and OH look good for a 1-3, 2-4" swath. Hopefully it gets better as we get closer to go-time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 ggem is usually the clipper-sniffer model, so it showing nothing could be telling. The euro has never been impressed either, 12z shows 1-2" primarily north of i-70. When it get's into the nam range, I'd bet the nam goes bonkers with it. That 1-2" you are seeing from wxbell maps is at 10:1 ratio, the clipper would be no where near 10:1 ratio with temperatures in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 ??? it's weak....widespread 1-2" at least according to wxbell Ratios buddy...c'mon. Look at GFS fcst soundings and then compare temps on Euro to figure the DGZ depth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 euro showing 1-2 on wxbell is a pretty good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 could be, but overall the signal is this is a very weak system, even as far as clippers go. Granted, these can definitely model stronger over time and granted, it still has the potential to be the best hit we've had all winter, (how sad is that). You're getting tiresome. That is no way a very weak system the GFS has been showing for runs though. Look at the low level circulation and amount of WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 loving the optimism here....it's almost as though there's precedent! Hope you guys are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 You're getting tiresome. That is no way a very weak system the GFS has been showing for runs though. Look at the low level circulation and amount of WAA. it's been a fantastic winter....I don't know where this negativity is coming from. Sorry. That aside, show me this fantastic circulation and waa on the euro and ggem. meet me over in the banter thread, I'll really make your day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 The surface maps leave something to be desired but you don't always need a good looking surface low. The GFS/ECMWF both have a pretty good wave aloft. And nice baroclinic zone as has been mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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