FallsLake Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 RAH discusses the potential system for early next week. I highly doubt we see any snow but they did miss-state that the GFS shows only a cold rain. THE FORECAST BEYOND THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK INTERESTING AS AANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE STALLEDFRONTAL ZONE OVER THE SOUTHERN US....POTENTIALLY CLIPPING AT LEASTTHE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW SETTING UPOVER THE NORTHEAST US WILL PROVIDE A STEADY STREAM OF CANADIAN AIRFOR THE EASTERN US...WITH THE POLAR FRONT MOVING INTO OUR REGION BYLATE SUNDAY. THE GFS SUGGESTS MORE PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAMMOISTURE AND COLD AIR...WITH A COASTAL LOW AND A COLD RAINMONDAY...THOUGH THE LOW MAY BE RESULTING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACKISSUES. THE ECMWF LOOKS MORE REASONABLE WITH A MORE SUPPRESSEDTRACK. LOOK FOR TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AND APOSSIBLE FREEZE/FROST BY TUESDAY. ****The freeze should be what we're more focused on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 RAH discusses the potential system for early next week. I highly doubt we see any snow but they did miss-state that the GFS shows only a cold rain. THE FORECAST BEYOND THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK INTERESTING AS A ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE SOUTHERN US....POTENTIALLY CLIPPING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHEAST US WILL PROVIDE A STEADY STREAM OF CANADIAN AIR FOR THE EASTERN US...WITH THE POLAR FRONT MOVING INTO OUR REGION BY LATE SUNDAY. THE GFS SUGGESTS MORE PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE AND COLD AIR...WITH A COASTAL LOW AND A COLD RAIN MONDAY...THOUGH THE LOW MAY BE RESULTING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. THE ECMWF LOOKS MORE REASONABLE WITH A MORE SUPPRESSED TRACK. LOOK FOR TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A POSSIBLE FREEZE/FROST BY TUESDAY. ****The freeze should be what we're more focused on... Im sweating already with these warm temps. im ready for a cooldown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 The D7 miracle is suppressed again on the 18z run... right where we want it. Of course, the cold wasn't overwhelming, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Can't believe nobody posted this! Isohomey , and the boys barely mention the "S" word in the middle of winter!! Now we got two chances!! Tuesday am and Tuesday night! I'm all in! Let's bring it home! Brick start the thread! Storm mode ! Aleeeeet! ALEET ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Can't believe nobody posted this! Isohomey , and the boys barely mention the "S" word in the middle of winter!! Now we got two chances!! Tuesday am and Tuesday night! I'm all in! Let's bring it home! Brick start the thread! Storm mode ! Aleeeeet! ALEET ! Problem is, even if Tuesday is 5 to 10 degrees below normal as stated, that would be 50 to 55º. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Problem is, even if Tuesday is 5 to 10 degrees below normal as stated, that would be 50 to 55º.Yeah, your right! They mention somewhere in the earlier part of it, that Thursday will be 20-25 below normal on the highs ! If that don't get it done , 5-10 below normal, definately won't ! I want a new NWS to do my forecast!?? Maybe FFC or CAE? I'm shopping around , lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Problem is, even if Tuesday is 5 to 10 degrees below normal as stated, that would be 50 to 55º. Uh, we're talking about Tuesday morning/night. Diurnal -snsh? Yeah, your right! They mention somewhere in the earlier part of it, that Thursday will be 20-25 below normal on the highs ! If that don't get it done , 5-10 below normal, definately won't ! I want a new NWS to do my forecast!?? Maybe FFC or CAE? I'm shopping around , lol! Man, please do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 We would need one hell of a strong CAD or some super phasing for this to work out. Doesn't look good for anyone south of VA..and even in VA it's probably borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Uh, we're talking about Tuesday morning/night. Diurnal -snsh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 The 00z Canadian pounded C NC on D7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 The 00z Canadian pounded C NC on D7. If it doesn't cut off at H5, forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 If it doesn't cut off at H5, forget it. You're all-in. Robert just used the S word. The Euro isn't that far off, either. Magic March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Uh, we're talking about Tuesday morning/night. Diurnal -snsh? Man, please do. Are you in Raleigh or CAE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Just had a chance to look at the 6z GFS. It still shows the potential but it would be borderline. I suppose it would be better if the system does cut off (as CR just said). We definitely can't lose anything here. -->For this time of year, a win would be snow falling from the sky. I wouldn't even dream about accumulations. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_150_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=150&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150318+06+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 You're all-in. Robert just used the S word. The Euro isn't that far off, either. Magic March. Ha! You *might* get a flake out of that setup. Not me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Are you in Raleigh or CAE? GSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 GSPHow much rain for Thursday/Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 You're all-in. Robert just used the S word. The Euro isn't that far off, either. Magic March. I'd bet the DC word was in that discussion somewhere and I haven't even read it! Dynamic Cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 How much rain for Thursday/Friday?no imby questions here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 no imby questions here.It's ok, storm mode is off until Tuesday , then lookout!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 GSP I meant GSP instead of CAE... You just got a great meteorologist from FFC up there! Trisha was awesome here and I'm really going to miss her AFD's! I guess she'll be out for a little while with the baby though! Just as long as she comes back before winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 It's ok, storm mode is off until Tuesday , then lookout!!! I was just kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 No snow on any of the afternoon models. This threat is slowly disappearing, if there ever was one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 No snow on any of the afternoon models. This threat is slowly disappearing, if there ever was one. The models always lose the storm at this point only to bring it back around D3. [/brickbot] Looks like the GFS has a suppressed system while the Canadian has a Miller B (LOL at the consistency between the modeling) that destroys SW VA. The Euro is also suppressed. I'm just following because I'm always desperate for a late-season snowfall, though the probability is almost assuredly <5%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 The models always lose the storm at this point only to bring it back around D3. [/brickbot] Looks like the GFS has a suppressed system while the Canadian has a Miller B (LOL at the consistency between the modeling) that destroys SW VA. The Euro is also suppressed. I'm just following because I'm always desperate for a late-season snowfall, though the probability is almost assuredly <5%. Agreed, wouldn't mind seeing some snow flakes again. After the 80's on Mon/Tuesday I realized summer will be here soon enough and who knows when we will see snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 March 93 redux....this would be very cold at the least I wonder if JB is hyping this yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Agreed, wouldn't mind seeing some snow flakes again. After the 80's on Mon/Tuesday I realized summer will be here soon enough and who knows when we will see snow again. I've always hated spring. Allergies used to destroy me every spring. They aren't nearly as bad for me these days, but I still don't necessarily like the season. Fall is nice, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 March 93 redux....this would be very cold at the least I wonder if JB is hyping this yet. April 2015 Superstorm has a nice ring to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 18, 2015 Author Share Posted March 18, 2015 I got a chance of snow with a low of 40!!! lol All though I have seen it snow at 40, I'm not looking for it in the morning................ TONIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS..THURSDAY...RAIN LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR100 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 If this comes to fruition then someone in the east is getting snow next weekend....probably the MA, seems like it's snowed weekly there since early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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