Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread III

[downeastnc]

Perfect setup for the low RH though, downsloping W to NW wind etc.......really its a testimony to how wet it has been that there are not red flag warnings up everywhere given the conditions.

[GaWx]

Is it a legit ob?

That is hard to say. The dewpoint was only 11, which was lower than most nearby (many in the 20's) though Lawrenceville was 12, Marietta was 12, and Kennesaw was 14.

Dewpoints were more uniform at 7am this morning.

[Cold Rain]

That is hard to say. The dewpoint was only 11, which was lower than most nearby (many in the 20's) though Lawrenceville was 12, Marietta was 12, and Kennesaw was 14.

Dewpoints were more uniform at 7am this morning.

Sounds like it might have been legit, based on what Burns posted.

[mackerel_sky]

Sounds like it might have been legit, based on what Burns posted.

Looking forward to the cool down for the end of the week!

JBuns has seen dewpoints that low during the " little ice age" he just forgot!

[superjames1992]

Sounds like it might have been legit, based on what Burns posted.

 

KGSO was 81/12 for a RH of 7% at the 4 PM report.

 

KHKY at the same time was 76/7 with a 7% RH.

 

At RDU, DPs never fell below 20, so the RH stayed >10%.

[superjames1992]

If surface temps weren't in the 40s, N NC would have some light snow on Thursday per the 00z GFS.  But so it is... and it will be, especially with light precip as is shown.

 

Nice torching BL FTW.

 

[GaWx]

Folks,

 The image found at the link below is the 2/1/15 JAMSTEC prediction for SON of 2015:

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2015.1feb2015.gif

 

1. As one can see, this is showing that the solid +PDO will be continuing then which would practically guarantee a solidly +PDO for next winter once again (though probably not as +).

 

2. Per this map and the one preceding it for JJA, the prediction for 3.4 is for a very low end moderate Nino peak for next fall/winter, which would be the first two year Nino since 1986-8.

 

3. If those two things were to verify (solid +PDO and weakish Nino peak) and when considering the past 12 cases of two year Nino's, we'd likely be looking at a humdinger of a cold winter in the SE US (likely colder than this past winter) if we can get a decent -NAO to dominate.

 

4. I'm sure some are rolling their eyes or laughing, especially due to the big hype for this past winter and the fail for a good portion wintry precipwise. I really can't blame these folks. However, I don't think it was actually a fail overall and part of the reason for a feeling of failure was the models Lucying us to death. What I'm saying now about the 2015-6 potential is truly how I feel. Keep in mind that last winter was only modestly cooler than average overall despite the very cold Jan. Also, this winter ended up ~2 colder than normal on average. While cold, it wasn't all that near to an overall very cold winter despite the very cold Feb. IF we can get the -NAO along with the already favored +PDO and the quite possible weak to low end moderate Nino, we could easily be looking at the coldest DJF of the last three and something close to 2009-10.

 

  The last time for three cold dominant E 1/3 US winters was way back in 1976-7 through 1978-9. The time preceding that was 1967-8 through 1969-70. However, keep in mind that the atmospheric setup we have seen and may also be seeing for 2015-6 has not really occurred since the late 1970's.

[mackerel_sky]

Folks,

The image found at the link below is the 2/1/15 JAMSTEC prediction for SON of 2015:

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2015.1feb2015.gif

1. As one can see, this is showing that the solid +PDO will be continuing then which would practically guarantee a solidly +PDO for next winter once again (though probably not as +).

2. Per this map and the one preceding it for JJA, the prediction for 3.4 is for a very low end moderate Nino peak for next fall/winter, which would be the first two year Nino since 1986-8.

3. If those two things were to verify (solid +PDO and weakish Nino peak) and when considering the past 12 cases of two year Nino's, we'd likely be looking at a humdinger of a cold winter in the SE US (likely colder than this past winter) if we can get a decent -NAO to dominate.

4. I'm sure some are rolling their eyes or laughing, especially due to the big hype for this past winter and the fail for a good portion wintry precipwise. I really can't blame these folks. However, I don't think it was actually a fail overall and part of the reason for a feeling of failure was the models Lucying us to death. What I'm saying now about the 2015-6 potential is truly how I feel. Keep in mind that last winter was only modestly cooler than average overall despite the very cold Jan. Also, this winter ended up ~2 colder than normal on average. While cold, it wasn't all that near to an overall very cold winter despite the very cold Feb. IF we can get the -NAO along with the already favored +PDO and the quite possible weak to low end moderate Nino, we could easily be looking at the coldest DJF of the last three and something close to 2009-10.

The last time for three cold dominant E 1/3 US winters was way back in 1976-7 through 1978-9. The time preceding that was 1967-8 through 1969-70. However, keep in mind that the atmospheric setup we have seen and may also be seeing for 2015-6 has not really occurred since the late 1970's.

JB, is that you? (jk)

Thanks for all the data , it's very interesting! I'm just looking forward to the cool down the next couple of days, and maybe some rain! It's too early for for mid 80s!

[Solak]

Perfect setup for the low RH though, downsloping W to NW wind etc.......really its a testimony to how wet it has been that there are not red flag warnings up everywhere given the conditions.

Just issued a SWS for a large area

939 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015...INCREASED FIRE DANGER THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUESWILL RESULT IN INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 25 PERCENTLATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY (25 TO 30MPH) OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST.RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION OR EVEN DELAY ANYBURNING PLANS THIS AFTERNOON AS FIRES CAN QUICKLY GET OUT OFCONTROL IN THESE SITUATIONS.

[GaWx]

JB, is that you? (jk)

Thanks for all the data , it's very interesting! I'm just looking forward to the cool down the next couple of days, and maybe some rain! It's too early for for mid 80s!

Mack,

No, I'm not jburns regardless of what you think. I may act like him and write like him. But I promise I'm not him! I've never been to Angus Barn.

YW. I know it is very early to get a little excited about next winter's potential but that's what very early indications are causing fwiw.

[Cold Rain]

Mack,

No, I'm not jburns regardless of what you think. I may act like him and write like him. But I promise I'm not him! I've never been to Angus Barn.

YW. I know it is very early to get a little excited about next winter's potential but that's what very early indications are causing fwiw.

Not expecting anything special next winter. But maybe I'm just jaded.

[FallsLake]

Not expecting anything special next winter. But maybe I'm just jaded.

 

If we're normal that's good enough for me. This year ended up a little above normal but I did hate that it all came at one time. Would have been nice to spread it out a little. I think in the short(er) term, the big question is what will our summer look like(hot/cool, dry/wet, hurricane potential, etc.). I loved the cool temps of last year and can only hope we'll get the same this year,    

[mackerel_sky]

If we're normal that's good enough for me. This year ended up a little above normal but I did hate that it all came at one time. Would have been nice to spread it out a little. I think in the short(er) term, the big question is what will our summer look like(hot/cool, dry/wet, hurricane potential, etc.). I loved the cool temps of last year and can only hope we'll get the same this year,

I would take normal in a heartbeat! I think I was at best , 25% of avg last winter, as visions of 200% of normal danced in my head!

[mackerel_sky]

If we're normal that's good enough for me. This year ended up a little above normal but I did hate that it all came at one time. Would have been nice to spread it out a little. I think in the short(er) term, the big question is what will our summer look like(hot/cool, dry/wet, hurricane potential, etc.). I loved the cool temps of last year and can only hope we'll get the same this year,

The niño will keep hurricane season very quiet in the Atlantic , I'm hoping its a avg summer temp wise, and above avg rain!

[Cold Rain]

If we're normal that's good enough for me. This year ended up a little above normal but I did hate that it all came at one time. Would have been nice to spread it out a little. I think in the short(er) term, the big question is what will our summer look like(hot/cool, dry/wet, hurricane potential, etc.). I loved the cool temps of last year and can only hope we'll get the same this year,

Yeah, I'd love another cool summer. I'm not expecting much in the way of tropical activity, though. We're in a multi-year lull, it seems, with landfalling canes....in much the same way as we are with wintertime blocking.

[GaWx]

Not expecting anything special next winter. But maybe I'm just jaded.

 

 It might be best to never expect anything special so that any chance for disappointment vs. seasonal expectations is minimized. I'm not yet saying I'm expecting anything special as it is too early for me to think that. However, the ducks are on the pond and I do think the potential for something special is, as of now, very much there..whether that be a very cold winter, a big winter storm for much of the SE (at least a more widespread version of the late Feb. snowstorm), or possibly even both, especially if we can get a -NAO. So, I'm certainly hopeful. Getting the -NAO would appear the be the most difficult item.

 

 I'd be feeling the opposite about potential if, for example, it appeared we were heading for a moderate to strong La Nina with a -PDO.

[GaWx]

If we're normal that's good enough for me. This year ended up a little above normal but I did hate that it all came at one time. Would have been nice to spread it out a little. I think in the short(er) term, the big question is what will our summer look like(hot/cool, dry/wet, hurricane potential, etc.). I loved the cool temps of last year and can only hope we'll get the same this year,    

 

 If one were to look back at past great seasons for SE winter storms, they'd find that a number of the great seasons had the majority of the wintry precip. occurring within a relatively short period and in a decent number of cases, almost all with one storm (especially in ATL). What made this winter seem worse imo was that we had to wait til late Feb.

[GaWx]

Yeah, I'd love another cool summer. I'm not expecting much in the way of tropical activity, though. We're in a multi-year lull, it seems, with landfalling canes....in much the same way as we are with wintertime blocking.

 

 I have no problem with us being in a lull of landfalling canes being that I have family and property in a vulnerable location. I do think this season will be relatively quiet. However, unfortunately it only takes one to make it a bad season from a casualty/damage standpoint.

[Cold Rain]

It might be best to never expect anything special so that any chance for disappointment vs. seasonal expectations is minimized. I'm not yet saying I'm expecting anything special as it is too early for me to think that. However, the ducks are on the pond and I do think the potential for something special is, as of now, very much there..whether that be a very cold winter, a big winter storm for much of the SE (at least a more widespread version of the late Feb. snowstorm), or possibly even both, especially if we can get a -NAO. So, I'm certainly hopeful. Getting the -NAO would appear the be the most difficult item.

 

 I'd be feeling the opposite about potential if, for example, it appeared we were heading for a moderate to strong La Nina with a -PDO.

We need a true, active southern stream. We've talked about it this winter....back in the day, there were so many times you'd see snow in TX and that would slide east, and we'd get winter weather. Now, most of the time, the storm track is northeast from there and we end up raining. We need an west to east southern storm track and blocking to the north to anchor in the cold. Cross-polar flow would help too!

[Cold Rain]

Time period around 156-180 is interesting on the 6z GFS.

[superjames1992]

Time period around 156-180 is interesting on the 6z GFS.

Suppressed Gulf Low.... right where we want it at this point.

[jburns]

Mack,

No, I'm not jburns regardless of what you think. I may act like him and write like him. But I promise I'm not him! I've never been to Angus Barn.

 

 

I checked back to the beginning of the Angus Barn.  You're correct, you have never been there.  So,.......lacking an analog, I guess you will never enjoy the savory goodness of a thick Angus Barn steak.  

[GaWx]

Time period around 156-180 is interesting on the 6z GFS.

 

1) Burns, lol. Oh well.  

 

2) The 12Z GFS says James, Brick, Pack, and yourself, among others in the area, get a sig. snowstorm fwiw on 3/24, the 32nd anniversary of the great SE 3/24/1983 El Nino snowstorm.

 

Although I'm not saying to bet on this fantasy by any means (odds quite low that this would verify imo..maybe 5% at best), I at the same time wouldn't laugh at this. El Nino's are the most favorable ENSO for a sig. March snow. See 1915, 1924, 1942, 1983, 1987, 1993 (borderline weak Nino), and 2010. Not as rare as one may think for a Nino though this would be later than all but 1983, which would make it very unusual.

 

Edit: On 2nd thought, 1987 also had an early April snow.

 

Edited

[FallsLake]

1) Burns, lol. Oh well.  

 

2) The 12Z GFS says James, Brick, Pack, and yourself, among others in the area, get a sig. snowstorm fwiw on 3/24, the 32nd anniversary of the great SE 3/24/1983 El Nino snowstorm.

 

Edited

Here you go:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_174_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=1000_500_thick&fhr=174&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150317+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

 

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_180_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=1000_500_thick&fhr=180&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150317+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_180_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=dom_precip_type&fhr=180&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150317+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

[packbacker]

why not...

 

 

[superjames1992]

I'm all-in.

[jburns]

I'm all-in.

 

Not me.  I've moved on.  Time for other activities.

[superjames1992]

Not me. I've moved on. Time for other activities.

Haha.

This should trend well for DC. They had a couple rockin' late March snowstorms last year, so why not another?

[mackerel_sky]

All in for the blizzard! it's going to be a warm snow!

[No snow for you]

All in for the blizzard! it's going to be a warm snow!

We have had everything else this winter so we are DUE for a warm snow.