Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread III

[GaWx]

Great post Larry ! Definately looking like back to back ninos are likely this year, and looks to be a med/strong one as we head into fall/winter! Only 10 months of analogs and data to sort through before we have something to track!

Thanks. Well, please keep in mind that 8 of the 12 ended up on the weaker side at peak and the CFSv2 could be too warm. The 4 that weren't weak in 2nd year: 1896-7, 1905-6, 1940-1, and 1987-8. Of these 4, only 1896-7 was not already showing more warming. So, we'll see. Of these 4, ATL/CLT had well above avg. SN/IP in 3/2 of them.

Also, we're way overdue for a 2nd year Nino! There have been 12 over the last 135 years or one every 11 years. However, we haven't had one since 1986-8 or in 28 years! Next longest gap: 21 years between 1918-20 and 1939-42 (that was a triple).

If one would like the best shot at a cold winter based on these 12, root for a weak Nino. The four coldest of the 12 2nd year at ATL were all when there were back to back weak ones. One was warm but the PDO was quite neg. Obviously a -NAO/-AO would be helpful! If we can actually get the -NAO/-AO, maintain the +PDO, and get a weak Nino, look out for the potential for a very cold winter in 2015-6.

The four that weren't weak for the 2nd year were cool (3 times) to normal (once).

[Cold Rain]

No hate here. I just don't put any stock in them as far as snowfall in this area. Besides the low number of samples problem, our yearly totals are so low that a one degree difference, for 6 hours one night in Jan., can make the difference between a shutout, below normal, or above for the entire winter.

I am absolutely going to hate on analogs from now on. They are dead to me.

[GaWx]

I am absolutely going to hate on analogs from now on. They are dead to me.

 

Thanks, Kevin.

 

Isn't this an overreaction? Analogs are tools, not crystal balls. They don't always work, especially for snowfall. So, how are you going to get a feel for next winter?

 

 Actually, depending on your location, they worked even for SN (N MS/TN/far N AL/GA at least). Also, the winter did turn out to be cool overall thanks to Feb. So, they were not a complete fail by any means. Just because your and my locations didn't do well with SN vs. the analogs/climo doesn't mean the analogs were a failure overall.

 

The -AO was an utter disaster, however!

 

Think about this: despite a solidly +AO/NAO, the winter ended up cool overall.

[Cold Rain]

Thanks, Kevin.

Isn't this an overreaction? Analogs are tools, not crystal balls. They don't always work, especially for snowfall. So, how are you going to get a feel for next winter?

Actually, depending on your location, they worked even for SN (N MS/TN/far N AL/GA at least). Also, the winter did turn out to be cool overall thanks to Feb. So, they were not a complete fail by any means. Just because your and my locations didn't do well with SN vs. the analogs/climo doesn't mean the analogs were a failure overall.

The -AO was an utter disaster, however!

Think about this: despite a solidly +AO/NAO, the winter ended up cool overall.

I hear ya. Which analogs for this winter showed a +AO/NAO with a cold winter?

[GaWx]

I hear ya. Which analogs for this winter showed a +AO/NAO with a cold winter?

 

 Very slim pickings there! This was probably one of the coldest winters for the E US as a whole over the last 100+ years for such a +AO/NAO! It looks like it was THE coldest for such a strong +AO and +NAO since at least 1950! 2013-14 is not too far behind though its AO/NAO wasn't nearly as +.

 

 So, the very strong -EPO and +PDO along with the help of the weak Nino were able to more than counteract the strong +AO/NAO in 2014-5. Keep in mind that many of the coldest E US winters have been weak to low end moderate Nino's. The very strong -EPO was able to counteract the not as +AO/NAO of 2013-4.

 

So, keeping this in mind as well as overall climo for weak Nino's/-AO/-NAO/+PDO: IF we get a weak to low end moderate Nino, +PDO, and -AO/NAO next winter, I'm going to be bullish once more for a solidly cold winter despite this one not being as cold as I had predicted (I'm assuming due to the +AO/NAO). I'll probably not be following Eurasian snowcover quite as closely this time though I will not ignore it.

 

 So, the E half of the US as a whole could very well end up with a 3rd cold winter in a row, which is pretty rare! Last time was probably 1976-7 through 1978-9.

 

 But without Eurasian snowcover being as good an AO predictor as I had thought, I probably won't have much confidence in predicting the AO (and NAO). We may need some other factors to help us try to predict those.

[mackerel_sky]

I don't agree at all. 1987-8, the last 2nd year Nino, gave much of the SE a fantastic winter wintrywise with the great 1/1988 IP/SN storm (ATL 4.2" IP; CLT: 12.1" SN). 1905-6 was really big at ATL (5.2") though a little below avg. at CLT (3.0"). 1900-1 had a major snow in Feb. in ATL (4.4") though not in CLT (1.0"). 1914-5 (7.4") and 1919-20 (4.9") gave Charlotte above avg. SN. 1940-1 gave them near avg. SN of 4.1". 1885-6 gave CLT barely below avg. (3.5").

I don't know if 1953-4 counts as a 2nd year, but it gave Charlotte 3.5" or barely below avg.

For 2nd year Nino's that had a short break in between: 1969-70 (4.5") and 1977-8 (5.5") were very cold and gave Charlotte above avg SN and 1958-9 gave just above avg. SN (4.3") there and at ATL (2.4"). 1896-7 were tremendous wintrywise in both ATL (6.3") and CLT (12.1").

So, out of these 12, CLT had above avg. SN 7 times and below only 4 times. They had only one that had less than 3"! ATL had above avg. 5 times and below 7 times.

At CLT: Avg. SN/IP for these 12: 65.9"/12= 5.5" or ~135-40% of normal! Median: 4.45", which has to be well above their median.

At ATL: Avg SN/IP for these 12: 26.3"/12=2.2" or near normal. Median: 1.04", which is actually right at overall median of ~1.0".

Tempwise ATL: Very cold: 1977-8, 1969-70, 1885-6; Cold 1914-5; Cool: 1941-2, 1919-20, 1905-6, 1900-1, 1896-7 Normal: 1987-8; 1958-9; warm: 1953-4..so ATL and the SE overall easily averaged cooler than normal.

By the way, folks, does this mean the hate from some (like Mack) for analyzing analogs is already over? Analogs are clearly a good tool though not a crystal ball!

Edited

I still hate analogs very much! So let down by this winter, and as much as it sucked, I hate to see it end! I am looking for any glimmer of hope for next winter and stumbled across those long range enso maps, and thought another niño might be good! Atleast it will keep us wet next winter, if it comes to fruition!

[Cold Rain]

Larry,

Most of the cold analogs I saw this winter were targeted around specific variables that would drive the cold pattern, like -AO/NAO, rising QBO, high snow cover in Siberia, Modoki El Niño, +PDO, etc. With the exception of the PDO, most of those variables didn't pan out like the analogs suggested. Yeah, it was a cold winter, but not for the reasons supported by the analog discussions in most winter forecasts.

I was messing around earlier. They can provide value, but they can also equally mislead, in part due to sample sizes, as Burns mentioned.

The fact of the matter is, we can analog and index and new variable ourselves till we're blue in the face, but the dynamic state of the atmosphere really make LR forecasting a nearly impossible task. Until the things we don't understand are outweighed by those we do, it will continue to be that way.

[GaWx]

IF we do get the weak to low end moderate Nino, +PDO, and -NAO/-AO, it will be quite interesting to see if we do, indeed, get a 3rd cold E US (say E 1/3) winter as a whole in a row. I'd certainly predict it. However, going back to 1894-5, I found only two instances of that: 1976-7 through 1978-9 and 1967-8 through 1969-70. So, getting a triple header of cold winters is not easy. Interestingly, both included two back to back weak to low end moderate Nino's, which could very well be the case for 2014-5/2015-6.

I like to look at the straight probabilities of a cold overall E US winter to explain why there were only two instances of triple cold. I roughly estimate that one in four winters is overall cold for the E US. To get three in a row, the chance could be considered as follows: 1/4 x 1/4 x 1/4 = 1/64. Well, when looking back to 1894-5, I'm looking at about 120 years. So, the expected number of triples would actually be near 2, which is what has occurred. The probability of 2015-6 being cold, without knowing where any index is likely to be. is only about 1/4. However, with El Nino already starting to look more and more likely, the odds would be ***raised***(correction) from 1/4 if it then appears that a weak to low end moderate Nino were most likely. A continued +PDO would help raise those odds further.

My point is to not fret that there have been only two triples of cold for the E US since 1894-5 IF we were to get a weakish Nino, +PDO, and -AO/-NAO.

[GaWx]

Larry,

Most of the cold analogs I saw this winter were targeted around specific variables that would drive the cold pattern, like -AO/NAO, rising QBO, high snow cover in Siberia, Modoki El Niño, +PDO, etc. With the exception of the PDO, most of those variables didn't pan out like the analogs suggested. Yeah, it was a cold winter, but not for the reasons supported by the analog discussions in most winter forecasts.

I was messing around earlier. They can provide value, but they can also equally mislead, in part due to sample sizes, as Burns mentioned.

The fact of the matter is, we can analog and index and new variable ourselves till we're blue in the face, but the dynamic state of the atmosphere really make LR forecasting a nearly impossible task. Until the things we don't understand are outweighed by those we do, it will continue to be that way.

 

 The -AO/-NAO was a complete fail. I still argue that the QBO, which I never have even tried to use to make a forecast, is not as useful as other indices. After the fact, some are saying it was too negative. From where did that come all of the sudden? I had never heard that in the past. I think that the QBO is very tough to use. Didn't the Modoki Nino verify?

 

 I largely agree with your last paragraph. There are probably several more yet to be discovered indices that will become useful one day. Regardless, I maintain that the already known indices/analogs are still of value as a tool and work better in some instances vs others.

[Cold Rain]

The -AO/-NAO was a complete fail. I still argue that the QBO, which I never have even tried to use to make a forecast, is not as useful as other indices. After the fact, some are saying it was too negative. From where did that come all of the sudden? I had never heard that in the past. I think that the QBO is very tough to use. Didn't the Modoki Nino verify?

I largely agree with your last paragraph. There are probably several more yet to be discovered indices that will become useful one day. Regardless, I maintain that the already known indices/analogs are still of value as a tool and work better in some instances vs others.

Wrt your last sentence, it indicates another challenge with analogs. Some instances vs others. That aspect is sort of nebulous. Anyway, not sure about El Niño. Was it an official Nino? Was it warm neutral? Was it just neutral? I don't know what the official designation was. I kept hearing about how the atmosphere wasn't in a Nino state, except for maybe the +PDO.

[GaWx]

Wrt your last sentence, it indicates another challenge with analogs. Some instances vs others. That aspect is sort of nebulous. Anyway, not sure about El Niño. Was it an official Nino? Was it warm neutral? Was it just neutral? I don't know what the official designation was. I kept hearing about how the atmosphere wasn't in a Nino state, except for maybe the +PDO.

 

 I'd say that the more indices that line up well with a prediction, the better. Had we had the -AO/-NAO, I bet this winter would have been awesome in all ways for many more in the SE.

 

 We're not quite to five trimonthlies (ONI's) in a row of +0.5+ anomaly in 3.4, but we've already made it to four. OTOH, I think NOAA has recently officially declared it a Nino. Different criteria? It can be confusing! It was at the very least a high end warm neutral.

[Cold Rain]

I'd say that the more indices that line up well with a prediction, the better. Had we had the -AO/-NAO, I bet this winter would have been awesome in all ways for many more in the SE.

We're not quite to five trimonthlies (ONI's) in a row of +0.5+ anomaly in 3.4, but we've already made it to four. OTOH, I think NOAA has recently officially declared it a Nino. Different criteria? It can be confusing! It was at the very least a high end warm neutral.

Yeah, if we'd have gotten -AO/NAO, we'd have done much better, I'll bet. Warm neutral seems most likely to me as far as El Niño is concerned. I agree with that.

[GaWx]

Yeah, if we'd have gotten -AO/NAO, we'd have done much better, I'll bet. Warm neutral seems most likely to me as far as El Niño is concerned. I agree with that.

 

 

 I think weak El Nino is where it will end up ONIwise (just needs one more trimonthly of +0.5+) but that's not a sure thing by any means. 

 

 One huge fail this winter imo was overall model performance!! I think that that made the winter seem worse than it otherwise was. They kept teasing us and then backing off!

[GaWx]

 For the 11 2nd year Ninos since 1895, I've attached below the DJF temperature anomaly map fwiw. The very cold 1885-6 had to be left out because this database starts in 1895. Otherwise, it would have looked even a bit colder. As it is, it is pretty chilly with it averaging a good 1.5 below the 1895-2000 normal (almost as cold as 2014-5). In reality, it is a mix of very cold (2), cold to cool (6), near normal (2), and warm (1). The median is likely slightly warmer than this but still chilly:

 

[mackerel_sky]

We are roughly an inch behind on precip for the year and for the month! Drought starting early! Look out Shetley, very dry for a niño , is that normal?

[GaWx]

Note the recent warmth as well as the forecasted warmth over the next couple of days. This has been and will be while the MJO is near a record strength in phase 7 (at least for March and possibly for winter as a whole). Generally, fwiw what I've found is that cold in the SE in winter has tended to be strongest when the MJO is on the weaker side (often within the circle) rather than stronger and moreso when it is on the left side though I didn't actually do a March only study to confirm the tendencies for March, alone.

[superjames1992]

I just got back in town, so I haven't been following anything, but on first glance the 00z Euro and 06z GFS look pretty close for D3-4. In fact, they do appear to be decent hits for SW VA.

The 06z GFS also had a mega cold outbreak (for this time of year) in lala land at the end of March/beginning of April.

[superjames1992]

The 12z GFS presents the March 31st Mauler.

[GaWx]

Note the recent warmth as well as the forecasted warmth over the next couple of days. This has been and will be while the MJO is near a record strength in phase 7 (at least for March and possibly for winter as a whole). Generally, fwiw what I've found is that cold in the SE in winter has tended to be strongest when the MJO is on the weaker side (often within the circle) rather than stronger and moreso when it is on the left side though I didn't actually do a March only study to confirm the tendencies for March, alone.

 

Further to this about the MJO:

 

I just read that the MJO just hit an all-time record high amplitude of +4.10. I checked the table and it has exceeded 4.0 in any phase in any month only once for a two day period in 2/1985, when it was ~4.01.

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

[Cold Rain]

The 12z GFS presents the March 31st Mauler.

I haven't voted in the Grade Your Winter thread yet. But if I get my 10" snowfall there, my grade for the winter will increase substantially.

[FallsLake]

The 12z GFS presents the March 31st Mauler.

So I think it's official, I've had more fantasy snow than Boston has real snow. **ended up not being a bad year but if we could have gotten half of what was presented it would have been epic.

[GaWx]

So I think it's official, I've had more fantasy snow than Boston has real snow. **ended up not being a bad year but if we could have gotten half of what was presented it would have been epic.

 

As I mentioned, I think that this winter seemed worse than it really was due to the horrible teasing by the models this winter in addition to the preseason epic winter predictions. Lucy was busier than ever with the football this winter!

 

Anyway, it is time to look forward to next winter. 2nd year Nino ftw?

 

 If we can get another weak one, we'd have a decent shot at a very cold winter assuming other indices lined up well per history. OTOH, if it is strong, we'd have a decent shot at a big SE snowstorm per history.

 

 Anyone want to start the winter 2015-6 thread? jburns, may we please start it now? It would help the psyche of this forum imo, especially because it kind of looks sort of promising.

[FallsLake]

As I mentioned, I think that this winter seemed worse than it really was due to the horrible teasing by the models this winter in addition to the preseason epic winter predictions. Lucy was busier than ever with the football this winter!

 

Anyway, it is time to look forward to next winter. 2nd year Nino ftw?

 

 If we can get another weak one, we'd have a decent shot at a very cold winter assuming other indices lined up well per history. OTOH, if it is strong, we'd have a decent shot at a big SE snowstorm per history.

 

 Anyone want to start the winter 2015-6 thread? jburns, may we please start it now? It would help the psyche of this forum imo, especially because it kind of looks sort of promising.

I'm all for it. Initially it will probably be more heavy on the nino aspect; with maybe some solar activity (...which we are now dropping towards minimum).

[Cold Rain]

I'm all for it. Initially it will probably be more heavy on the nino aspect; with maybe some solar activity (...which we are now dropping towards minimum).

Of course solar is dropping toward minimum. Winter is almost over and it's time for blocking to begin, now that spring is here.

[downeastnc]

GFS teasing at the end of the run, chances are pretty slim its even close but its still funny to see blue over NC in this time frame......the cold after is also pretty bad if it is even close that much below freezing would be rough on all the new leaves that will be out popping out buy then...it will be gone next run but it is a reminder that winter can still pop up for a day or two well into early April.

 

 

 

 

 

[FallsLake]

GFS teasing at the end of the run, chances are pretty slim its even close but its still funny to see blue over NC in this time frame......the cold after is also pretty bad if it is even close that much below freezing would be rough on all the new leaves that will be out popping out buy then...it will be gone next run but it is a reminder that winter can still pop up for a day or two well into early April.

 

GFS snow Apr 1.png

 

GFS Apr 1 temps.png

I love cold but I do not want to see teens in early April. It would be a major kill off of spring growth; and in some cases the whole plant.  

[superjames1992]

I don't think I've ever seen such a huge snowstorm modeled at such a late date, even in lala land. Model-watching would suck with the Euro not coming out until after 2 AM.

[GaWx]

 Athens, GA, had a RH of 6% at 5 PM today!! I wonder if that could be a record low RH there. Anyone have any idea?

 

Why is it so incredibly dry (like desert dry)?

 

I'm assuming there's no direct connection, but interestingly the MJO supposedly had its highest amp. on record since 1975 (today or yesterday) at 4.1!

[Cold Rain]

Athens, GA, had a RH of 6% at 5 PM today!! I wonder if that could be a record low RH there. Anyone have any idea?

Why is it so incredibly dry (like desert dry)?

I'm assuming there's no direct connection, but interestingly the MJO supposedly had its highest amp. on record since 1975 (today or yesterday) at 4.1!

Is it a legit ob?

[jburns]

RH is currently 10% here.  About as low as I've ever seen it.