mackerel_sky Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 I still can't believe how little rain we have gotten here so far this week.Get use to it! You will be saying that alot this summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Yep so far way less than the .25 i thought we might see. If tomorrow and Sat don't pan out, we are going to have a dry month. GSP does not have rain in the forecast after Sat for at least a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Wxbell subscription ended today. Ensemble update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Wxbell subscription ended today. Ensemble update?Eps Eps control Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 The Euro must be the only model showing this crazy cold, because it's not on the GFS ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 I'm beginning to put a decent amount of trust into JB's medium and long-range forecasts. It seems like he knows what he's talking about, and if I'm not mistaken he has good credit for being right about general trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 I'm beginning to put a decent amount of trust into JB's medium and long-range forecasts. It seems like he knows what he's talking about, and if I'm not mistaken he has good credit for being right about general trends.yeah he is really good with long range patterns. He gets way too weenie with individual storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooter Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 Seems like models are doing what they have done most of the winter. Show a big cold shot way out and as we get closer it moderates. I'm ready for some spring thunderstorms. Tired of my girls sound machines fake thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 Polar vortex incoming! Lolzzzz The models continue to be rock solid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 Scary 6,8, 10 degree temp departures from the 22-24th! That's going to put me at a bone chilling 55-65 for highs, brrrrrrrr.! Smdh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 euro big snow for Southern/Central VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 euro big snow for Southern/Central VAEuro suppose to be getting a nice upgrade soon! Supposedly no more crazy clown snow maps! It will seperate snow, sleet, zrn! Can't wait for next winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 Euro suppose to be getting a nice upgrade soon! Supposedly no more crazy clown snow maps! It will seperate snow, sleet, zrn! Can't wait for next winter! That is no bueno. Seems like most upgrades are a taking a step back. Sure it struggled this year, but all models did. It is still the king so why mess with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 That is no bueno. Seems like most upgrades are a taking a step back. Sure it struggled this year, but all models did. It is still the king so why mess with it.The stopping of the insane , overdoing it,clown maps, that get passed around social media, will be well worth an upgrade! All models sucked hard this winter, at some point, but UKMet lead the way, with CMC as well, then the RAP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 The stopping of the insane , overdoing it,clown maps, that get passed around social media, will be well worth an upgrade! All models sucked hard this winter, at some point, but UKMet lead the way, with CMC as well, then the RAP! Forget not the Navgem! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 Forget not the Navgem!We will never forget!I think the NAM dissapointed me the most this winter! We need models that can better see the warm noses! If I end up with another 1" sleet storm, when expecting 4-10", I'm moving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 euro big snow for Southern/Central VA 33-34/rain with some mangled flakes to end here. I'm all-in!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 Weeklies still look pretty good for a cold period starting around March 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Looks pretty wet from Thursday on through the weekend? Means it will probably end up dry and sunny! But I am liking these damp drizzly days, it's good for the garden and no freezes in sight! I think spring is here for good! Come July, Shetley and I , will be begging for rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Was wondering about El Ninos and the warmer months, and found this on the Internet at AL. com. They also think the weak niño , could hang on through summer! But I thought this map looked interesting with the 50-70% over my back yard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Mack, that map says that NW SC receives 50 to 70 mm greater rainfall than normal from March through May in an El Nino year, on average. In inches, that's around 2.5-3.25" in excess rainfall over the three month period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Mack, that map says that NW SC receives 50 to 70 mm greater rainfall than normal from March through May in an El Nino year, on average. In inches, that's around 2.5-3.25" in excess rainfall over the three month period.That's an avg of an inch above normal for each month! I'll take that heading into summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 This next winter 15/16, is gonna be rocking! If this map is correct ! Looks to be getting stronger as we head into fall!! I'm all in 200% + , or bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 This next winter 15/16, is gonna be rocking! If this map is correct ! Looks to be getting stronger as we head into fall!! I'm all in 200% + , or bust! Can someone fetch me an image showing the temperature (and precipitation?) impacts of the different types of El Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Can someone fetch me an image showing the temperature (and precipitation?) impacts of the different types of El Nino? Webber still around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 I want to say we do badly in second year niños Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 I want to say we do badly in second year niñosWe did bad in a first year niño, as well!Seriously, I hope we get a raging , super El Niño , just to take all hopes of wintry weather off the table! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 I want to say we do badly in second year niños I don't agree at all. 1987-8, the last 2nd year Nino, gave much of the SE a fantastic winter wintrywise with the great 1/1988 IP/SN storm (ATL 4.2" IP; CLT: 12.1" SN). 1905-6 was really big at ATL (5.2") though a little below avg. at CLT (3.0"). 1900-1 had a major snow in Feb. in ATL (4.4") though not in CLT (1.0"). 1914-5 (7.4") and 1919-20 (4.9") gave Charlotte above avg. SN. 1940-1 gave them near avg. SN of 4.1". 1885-6 gave CLT barely below avg. (3.5"). I don't know if 1953-4 counts as a 2nd year, but it gave Charlotte 3.5" or barely below avg. For 2nd year Nino's that had a short break in between: 1969-70 (4.5") and 1977-8 (5.5") were very cold and gave Charlotte above avg SN and 1958-9 gave just above avg. SN (4.3") there and at ATL (2.4"). 1896-7 were tremendous wintrywise in both ATL (6.3") and CLT (12.1"). So, out of these 12, CLT had above avg. SN 7 times and below only 4 times. They had only one that had less than 3"! ATL had above avg. 5 times and below 7 times. At CLT: Avg. SN/IP for these 12: 65.9"/12= 5.5" or ~135-40% of normal! Median: 4.45", which has to be well above their median. At ATL: Avg SN/IP for these 12: 26.3"/12=2.2" or near normal. Median: 1.04", which is actually right at overall median of ~1.0". Tempwise ATL: Very cold: 1977-8, 1969-70, 1885-6; Cold 1914-5; Cool: 1941-2, 1919-20, 1905-6, 1900-1, 1896-7 Normal: 1987-8; 1958-9; warm: 1953-4..so ATL and the SE overall easily averaged cooler than normal. By the way, folks, does this mean the hate from some (like Mack) for analyzing analogs is already over? Analogs are clearly a good tool though not a crystal ball! Edited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 By the way, folks, does this mean the hate from some (like Mack) for analyzing analogs is already over? Aanlogs are clearly a good tool though not a crystal ball! No hate here. I just don't put any stock in them as far as snowfall in this area. Besides the low number of samples problem, our yearly totals are so low that a one degree difference, for 6 hours one night in Jan., can make the difference between a shutout, below normal, or above for the entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Great post Larry ! Definately looking like back to back ninos are likely this year, and looks to be a med/strong one as we head into fall/winter! Only 10 months of analogs and data to sort through before we have something to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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