NCSNOW Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 I enjoy negative nao, but I have hit climo the past 2 years in central NC without one. In fact I guess it's more micro climate perception than anything , I'm 60 or 70 miles west of pack and while I root to get a negative nao pattern for mby I'm much more interested in the Pacific and would taking a pos pna over a negative nao if I had to choose between the two. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Nothing deceiving about the blocking showing on the GFS, euro , eps and GEFS Unless it does not come to fruition Not talking about the possibility of a -NAO upcoming. My comment was related to pack and gawx communication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 The 6z GFS looks rather brisk in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 The 6z GFS looks rather brisk in the LR.I saw some upper 20s around mby at about hour 360 or so. Not that impressive here, but enough to do damage! Guessing the Euro backe off the polar vortex sitting over PA , or there would be more hype/talk?? I'm trying to focus on the non rain event coming for the Carolinas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 I saw some upper 20s around mby at about hour 360 or so. Not that impressive here, but enough to do damage! Guessing the Euro backe off the polar vortex sitting over PA , or there would be more hype/talk?? I'm trying to focus on the non rain event coming for the Carolinas! Don't know about the EPS, but the Euro looks to be heading in a cold direction. Seems the focus of this event continues to shift west, but most of the SE should see a nice rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Here's the 6z GFS precip total through D5. Not quite as impressive as the other day: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 I saw some upper 20s around mby at about hour 360 or so. Not that impressive here, but enough to do damage! Guessing the Euro backe off the polar vortex sitting over PA , or there would be more hype/talk?? I'm trying to focus on the non rain event coming for the Carolinas!EPS still just as crazy as yesterday Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 And of course the control run is colder than the eps mean Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 EPS still just as crazy as yesterday Sent from my iPhone Wow! That is redonculous! I think we had a few looks like that on the models in Jan/Feb that didnt come to fruition, but we will see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 More on this cold look latter half of March: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Wow! That is redonculous! I think we had a few looks like that on the models in Jan/Feb that didnt come to fruition, but we will see what happens.It did come to fruition in February. The Carolinas had one of the coldest Februarys sine the late 1970s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Here's the 6z GFS precip total through D5. Not quite as impressive as the other day: gfs_namer_120_precip_ptot.gif So what happened to this so called "wet week"? Still nary a drop of rain, and the nws has really chopped our rain chances to the bone.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 12z eps is at it again Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Larry, or anybody know what the effects will be on the next winter, if we keep the niño all summer and have back to back niño winters? What would that possibly mean for next winter,? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Winter is OVER outside of the mountains. All the talk about cold coming later is all for naught. According to the maps above, we"d be looking at 6-7 degrees below average for late March, so that would give us highs in the low 60s in the upstate. Hold on, gotta go get my gloves and parka back out It was in the 80s most areas today, we're closer to summer than winter. If you're below about 2500 ft, hang it up. May not even get another freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Winter is OVER outside of the mountains. All the talk about cold coming later is all for naught. According to the maps above, we"d be looking at 6-7 degrees below average for late March, so that would give us highs in the low 60s in the upstate. Hold on, gotta go get my gloves and parka back out It was in the 80s most areas today, we're closer to summer than winter. If you're below about 2500 ft, hang it up. May not even get another freeze. Finally, the voice of reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Winter is OVER outside of the mountains. All the talk about cold coming later is all for naught. According to the maps above, we"d be looking at 6-7 degrees below average for late March, so that would give us highs in the low 60s in the upstate. Hold on, gotta go get my gloves and parka back out It was in the 80s most areas today, we're closer to summer than winter. If you're below about 2500 ft, hang it up. May not even get another freeze. That's crazy talk right there. Maybe down in equatorial SC and GA that might be true, but I'd say the chances of another freeze in Hickory, NC, before the end of April are about 95%. (That's a totally subjective probability, BTW, and I'm only going off of memory and past experience, which do have value, however limited. It's after midnight, after all. I'm not going to go look up statistics.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Nevermind. I just looked it up. I couldn't resist. According to the NCSU Cooperative Extension, the mean date of the last frost in Hickory, NC, is April 8, with a standard deviation of 11 days. If we assume dates of the last frost are normally distributed, then according to the empirical rule, approximately 95% of all last frosts in Hickory, NC, occur between March 18 and April 30. I rest my case. (Yes, I realize that frosts and freezes are not the exact same thing, but I think it will work as a good approximation in this case.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 That's crazy talk right there. Maybe down in equatorial SC and GA that might be true, but I'd say the chances of another freeze in Hickory, NC, before the end of April are about 95%. (That's a totally subjective probability, BTW, and I'm only going off of memory and past experience, which do have value, however limited. It's after midnight, after all. I'm not going to go look up statistics.) Well if you notice, I said MAY not get another freeze. And there doesn't look to be freeze over the next ten days or so which puts us up to the final week of March, so I'd say it's a distinct possibility. You'll have a better chance of it in hickory and north of I- 40 than here in the upstate though. Of course I've seen freezes here into late April before, but it just seems mother nature flipped the switch on us. But even if we did get another morning in the upper 20s somewhere, it wouldn't bring back winter. That , my friend, has sadly parted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Well if you notice, I said MAY not get another freeze. And there doesn't look to be freeze over the next ten days or so which puts us up to the final week of March, so I'd say it's a distinct possibility. You'll have a better chance of it in hickory and north of I- 40 than here in the upstate though. Of course I've seen freezes here into late April before, but it just seems mother nature flipped the switch on us. But even if we did get another morning in the upper 20s somewhere, it wouldn't bring back winter. That , my friend, has sadly parted Chances of snow are becoming less and less likely as we move farther into March. Things can happen but I think most on here have moved their mindset into the spring season. But frost and freezes are not just possible but probable for many interior SE locations during the next three weeks. 0z GFS at day ten and beyond looks to get cold. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=03&model_dd=12&model_init_hh=00&fhour=252¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Models are slowly backing off the cold shot, moderating it a run at a time.. lmao, fail incoming for those wanting some more winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 That's crazy talk right there. Maybe down in equatorial SC and GA that might be true, but I'd say the chances of another freeze in Hickory, NC, before the end of April are about 95%. (That's a totally subjective probability, BTW, and I'm only going off of memory and past experience, which do have value, however limited. It's after midnight, after all. I'm not going to go look up statistics.) Leave Ga. out of this, lol. We don't pay attention to doom and gloom purveyors down here. We know the weather does what it wants to do, no matter how learned the doom and gloomer I have a very timid wisteria that lost all it's leaves in a recent April hard freeze, and it's shaking when it sprouts new leaves in spring. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Models are slowly backing off the cold shot, moderating it a run at a time.. lmao, fail incoming for those wanting some more winter weather. I apologize for wanting wintry weather, no matter what the calendar might say. I'm not sure how anything is a fail though. The models have no control of the weather. Leave Ga. out of this, lol. We don't pay attention to doom and gloom purveyors down here. We know the weather does what it wants to do, no matter how learned the doom and gloomer I have a very timid wisteria that lost all it's leaves in a recent April hard freeze, and it's shaking when it sprouts new leaves in spring. T Sorry, Tony. That was an unfair shot across the bow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Lol What's the difference. You are arguing over a couple of hours of 32º temps at an hour where most people are still in bed. Sad really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Models are slowly backing off the cold shot, moderating it a run at a time.. lmao, fail incoming for those wanting some more winter weather.but it's your beloved euro, it can't possibly fail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 I can't wait for the chilly highs in the 60s to get here! Thes 70s and 80s are too hot! Bring on the arctic blast! These 80s and .12 rain totals , in the last 5 days, are starting the drought off early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VanillaDream Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Yeah I have seen about the same. Forecast for this week was 2-4 inches...so far its been more like 2-4 drops! Tonight/tomorrow doesn't look all that wet either, IMO. Just chilly with 38-43 degree temps across North GA tomorrow. Yuck. I can't wait for the chilly highs in the 60s to get here! Thes 70s and 80s are too hot! Bring on the arctic blast! These 80s and .12 rain totals , in the last 5 days, are starting the drought off early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 but it's your beloved euro, it can't possibly fail! Even the Mighty Euro - the King of all models - the model with the highest verification scores year after year is not going to be right every time. But 60% of the time it's right every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Even the Mighty Euro - the King of all models - the model with the highest verification scores year after year is not going to be right every time. But 60% of the time it's right every time. 80% of the 60% occurs in summer. Euro predicts hazy hot and humid with a 30% chance of thundershowers. DAMN!!! IT'S RIGHT AGAIN!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 I still can't believe how little rain we have gotten here so far this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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