metwannabe Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Like highs in the 40s/50s cold or colder? Colder. It actually gets colder and colder the further out it goes. Matches the weeklies . Easily could have highs in the 30s . Is it right???? Probably not but man lots of things pointing to a colder second half of march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 The eps run from 00z is stupid looking . The end of the month looks flat out cold Long live king Euro..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Colder. It actually gets colder and colder the further out it goes. Matches the weeklies . Easily could have highs in the 30s . Is it right???? Probably not but man lots of things pointing to a colder second half of march Nice, thank you! Keep that southern stream active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Colder. It actually gets colder and colder the further out it goes. Matches the weeklies . Easily could have highs in the 30s . Is it right???? Probably not but man lots of things pointing to a colder second half of march I actually hope it stays cold as long as possible. Not because I am a winter weather fan, but because I am hoping it will thwart the severe season. I know some folks live and breathe severe weather, but I am not a fan of seeing someone's house and belongings re-located. Just give me a strong Cad and I will be happy. You guys can chase in Miss/AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Nice, thank you! Keep that southern stream active. It's tough for us to get winter events in Jan/Feb so March is going to take a goliath cold pattern. NW NC should be interested though. But, the EPS is getting colder and colder...below is March 18-23rd from 36 hours ago and from this mornings 0z run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 These are big winter storms that hit NC in mid/late March. There was a few other smaller ones but left those out.....so +PNA/-EPO/-NAO is what it takes...hmmmm. Edit: Also no secret that these were all +PDO and 4 of the 6 were +ENSO.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Nice, Pack! Thanks for posting that. About the only shot we're going to have outside the mountains is with a decent -NAO. If we don't see that coming to fruition, the low odds are going to be really, really low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Gfs seems to agree with the idea of a colder end to march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Gfs seems to agree with the idea of a colder end to march Just FYI the 384 hours GFS OP surface temp map is 100% worthless. It has no value as a tool to predict what the weather will be like in 15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Ok and.... I was just showing that it shares the same idea with the euro on a cooler pattern in the same time frame... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Just FYI the 384 hours GFS OP surface temp map is 100% worthless. It has no value as a tool to predict what the weather will be like in 15 days. The 72 GFS op surface temp map is worthless..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 The GFS op is worthless. In fact, up until 12 hours before the event, pretty much every model gave me several inches of snow, except for the RGEM. But now, we're getting into degrees of worthlessness. Anyway, the GFS seems to agree with the EPS in cold returning toward month end. There's a little value when you look at it that way, like what Tim was saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 The GFS op is worthless. In fact, up until 12 hours before the event, pretty much every model gave me several inches of snow, except for the RGEM. But now, we're getting into degrees of worthlessness. Anyway, the GFS seems to agree with the EPS in cold returning toward month end. There's a little value when you look at it that way, like what Tim was saying. We are not worthy, we're not worthy ! BanjoI love the thought of a severe cold snap at the end of March! Really, get the early generations of Mosquitos out and about, then zap ' em, right along with peach blossoms and no snow, perfect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Nice, Pack! Thanks for posting that. About the only shot we're going to have outside the mountains is with a decent -NAO. If we don't see that coming to fruition, the low odds are going to be really, really low. Imo, the -NAO is highly overrated even in March based on the biggest ATL March winter storms since 1950. Most of these were also big NC winter storms: 3/2/1960: +NAO 3/9/1960: -NAO 3/11/1960: -NAO 3/25/1971: +NAO 3/2/1980: +NAO 3/10-11/1987: +NAO 3/13/1993: +NAO 3/1/2009: +NAO 3/2/2010: -NAO So, the tally is 6 +NAO and 3 -NAO. Most of these were big for at least part of NC. This shows no advantage to a -NAO since 1950 for March winter storms. Those are the cold facts...i.e., not subject to interpretation Daily NAO: ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Imo, the -NAO is highly overrated even in March based on the biggest ATL March winter storms since 1950. Most of these were also big NC winter storms: 3/2/1960: +NAO 3/9/1960: -NAO 3/11/1960: -NAO 3/25/1971: +NAO 3/2/1980: +NAO 3/10-11/1987: +NAO 3/13/1993: +NAO 3/1/2009: +NAO 3/2/2010: -NAO So, the tally is 6 +NAO and 3 -NAO. Most of these were big for at least part of NC. This shows no advantage to a -NAO since 1950 for March winter storms. Those are the cold facts...i.e., not subject to interpretation Daily NAO: ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii Thats very interesting that ATL doesn't rely on the -NAO like RDU does. It's not even close for RDU, our snowiest winters/stretches are with -NAO dominated patterns. Before anyone starts throwing winter storms at me that have had +NAO's, I am not saying we can't get winter storms with +NAO's but our consistently snowy winters/stretches our with -NAO's. Climate: http://nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NC_Snowfall.php Day 10 Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Of the 25 largest metropolitan areas that record measurable snow in at least 50 percent of their winters, 16 are still due for one more snowfall. I collected data from the past 50 winters for those cities, and while climatology is not a perfect predictor of the future, it’s a good guide for what’s still to come. Here’s where each region stands: Northeast Don’t put away the salt and shovels just yet. In more than 50 percent of winters, Boston, New York and Philadelphia saw a last snowfall after March 9. In fact, 25 percent of the time in all three cities, it occurred at the end of March or even later. Boston, 1.9 inches away from its all-time snowfall record, still has plenty of time. Rust Belt/Upper Midwest It feels like winter really never ends in these regions, but eventually the weather does warm up. From Pittsburgh to Minneapolis, the last snowfall is in April, more often than not. I can see Jon Lester throwing in the snow right now. Lower Midwest This region is just like the Northeast, but in the west. From Cincinnati to Kansas City, snow usually doesn’t stop falling until the last weeks of March. It often snows into April, and sometimes beyond. Mid-Atlantic/Upper South Cherry blossoms, rejoice! Baltimore and Washington have had late-March snowfalls the past two seasons, but more than 50 percent of the time the last snow had already fallen by now. Further south, across Nashville and the major cities of North Carolina, we’re two weeks or more past the median date for the last snow. Lower South Last week’s snow and ice storms across the region were truly unusual. In Atlanta and Dallas, the last snow falls in late February or earlier more than 75 percent of the time. Heck, in many years it doesn’t snow in Dallas at all — 30 percent of its winters are snow-free.1 Just don’t tell that to Leon Lett. Mountain West It’s not over yet — not even close. The median date of last snowfall in Denver2 and Salt Lake City — late April — is among the latest in the country. As my colleague Nate Silver has pointed out, many of Denver’s large snowfalls have occurred in April. Pacific Northwest In all my years watching “Frasier” and “Portlandia,” I don’t remember snow ever being a major plot line. And yet Portland3 and Seattle4 do sometimes see snow — but it tends to stop earlier than elsewhere. The snow there usually peters out in January or the first half of February, when it does fall. For many of us, winter is over. For others, the old man is merely hiding behind a tree, waiting to attack us with a snowball. Stay vigilant. http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/has-the-snow-finally-stopped/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Thats very interesting that ATL doesn't rely on the -NAO like RDU does. It's not even close for RDU, our snowiest winters/stretches are with -NAO dominated patterns. Before anyone starts throwing winter storms at me that have had +NAO's, I am not saying we can't get winter storms with +NAO's but our consistently snowy winters/stretches our with -NAO's. Climate: http://nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NC_Snowfall.php ] Pack, I'm only addressing March and many of those listed were also big NC snowstorms though not necessarily RDU, itself. What are the exact dates of the biggest March RDU snow (say, 3"+) storms? We could check the NAO for those dates very easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 10, 2015 Author Share Posted March 10, 2015 Of the 25 largest metropolitan areas that record measurable snow in at least 50 percent of their winters, 16 are still due for one more snowfall. I collected data from the past 50 winters for those cities, and while climatology is not a perfect predictor of the future, it’s a good guide for what’s still to come. Here’s where each region stands: Northeast Don’t put away the salt and shovels just yet. In more than 50 percent of winters, Boston, New York and Philadelphia saw a last snowfall after March 9. In fact, 25 percent of the time in all three cities, it occurred at the end of March or even later. Boston, 1.9 inches away from its all-time snowfall record, still has plenty of time. Rust Belt/Upper Midwest It feels like winter really never ends in these regions, but eventually the weather does warm up. From Pittsburgh to Minneapolis, the last snowfall is in April, more often than not. I can see Jon Lester throwing in the snow right now. Lower Midwest This region is just like the Northeast, but in the west. From Cincinnati to Kansas City, snow usually doesn’t stop falling until the last weeks of March. It often snows into April, and sometimes beyond. Mid-Atlantic/Upper South Cherry blossoms, rejoice! Baltimore and Washington have had late-March snowfalls the past two seasons, but more than 50 percent of the time the last snow had already fallen by now. Further south, across Nashville and the major cities of North Carolina, we’re two weeks or more past the median date for the last snow. Lower South Last week’s snow and ice storms across the region were truly unusual. In Atlanta and Dallas, the last snow falls in late February or earlier more than 75 percent of the time. Heck, in many years it doesn’t snow in Dallas at all — 30 percent of its winters are snow-free.1 Just don’t tell that to Leon Lett. Mountain West It’s not over yet — not even close. The median date of last snowfall in Denver2 and Salt Lake City — late April — is among the latest in the country. As my colleague Nate Silver has pointed out, many of Denver’s large snowfalls have occurred in April. Pacific Northwest In all my years watching “Frasier” and “Portlandia,” I don’t remember snow ever being a major plot line. And yet Portland3 and Seattle4 do sometimes see snow — but it tends to stop earlier than elsewhere. The snow there usually peters out in January or the first half of February, when it does fall. For many of us, winter is over. For others, the old man is merely hiding behind a tree, waiting to attack us with a snowball. Stay vigilant. http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/has-the-snow-finally-stopped/ Nice JB, Some may get lucky at the end of the month? If pattern verifies!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Pack, I'm only addressing March and many of those listed were also big NC snowstorms though not necessarily RDU, itself. What are the exact dates of the biggest March RDU snow (say, 3"+) storms? We could check the NAO for those dates very easily. That link has a chart near the bottom that highlights the importance of a -NAO, atleast for central NC. Reason it's been so bad here recently is the lack of a -NAO. If one believes in cycles we should see a return to a -NAO dominated winters. At that point we, atleast for central NC, we will say 'the -NAO does make a difference'. chart added... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 The EPS is just nuts, if this was Feb 10th or even Feb 24th, it would be snow shovel shopping time. The blocking that develops after day 8+ is just... Edit: And I thought the 0z run looked good. It looks like crap now compared to what the 12z is spitting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 The EPS is just nuts, if this was Feb 10th or even Feb 24th, it would be snow shovel shopping time. The blocking that develops after day 8+ is just... Edit: And I thought the 0z run looked good. It looks like crap now compared to what the 12z is spitting out. Pack, can you post that please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Pack, can you post that please? 5 day mean for days 9-14...someone in the east is getting a snowstorm during this time, if the EPS is remotely close to what verifies. But, I guess that's a big if... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Imo, the -NAO is highly overrated even in March based on the biggest ATL March winter storms since 1950. Most of these were also big NC winter storms: 3/2/1960: +NAO 3/9/1960: -NAO 3/11/1960: -NAO 3/25/1971: +NAO 3/2/1980: +NAO 3/10-11/1987: +NAO 3/13/1993: +NAO 3/1/2009: +NAO 3/2/2010: -NAO So, the tally is 6 +NAO and 3 -NAO. Most of these were big for at least part of NC. This shows no advantage to a -NAO since 1950 for March winter storms. Those are the cold facts...i.e., not subject to interpretation Daily NAO: ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii Lol, I forgot to put in the NAO for the heaviest ATL March snow on record, 3/24/1983. It was positive. So, out of the ten most significant ATL March winter storms since 1950, seven (70%) were when there was a +NAO! Moreover, many of these were also big in at least a portion of NC though I don't know right now which were significant in RDU. Now, I'm not saying that having a +NAO is more conducive than a -NAO to allow for a significant March winter storm at ATL and some areas of the SE. What I am saying is that there's no evidence of a -NAO making it more conducive than a +NAO. Therefore, I maintain that the crucialness of a -NAO for ATL and at least nearby areas to get a significant March winter storm is clearly not evident based on the actual storm dates since 1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 5 day mean for days 9-14...someone in the east is getting a snowstorm during this time, if the EPS is remotely close to what verifies. But, I guess that's a big if... Move that arctic air 400 miles south and 200 miles west, we have ourselves the true cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Lol, I forgot to put in the NAO for the heaviest ATL March snow on record, 3/24/1983. It was positive. So, out of the ten most significant ATL March winter storms since 1950, seven (70%) were when there was a +NAO! Moreover, many of these were also big in at least a portion of NC though I don't know right now which were significant in RDU. Now, I'm not saying that having a +NAO is more conducive than a -NAO to allow for a significant March winter storm at ATL and some areas of the SE. What I am saying is that there's no evidence of a -NAO making it more conducive than a +NAO. Therefore, I maintain that the crucialness of a -NAO for ATL and at least nearby areas to get a significant March winter storm is clearly not evident based on the actual storm dates since 1950. This is the mean for all the dates, except 3/93 since that was definitely a solid +AO/+NAO. The mean sure does blocky to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 This is the mean for all the dates, except 3/93 since that was definitely a solid +AO/+NAO. The mean sure does blocky to me... Pack, Yes it does for the mean of the nine non-1993 dates. I don't have an answer. Both of us have put out hard data though the pattern you show for the nine non-1993 dates, indeed, looks pretty -NAOish. I wonder how each of the nine would look individually. Could the three -NAO cases (3/9/2960, 3/11/1960, 3/2/2010) be more dominant than the six non-1993 +NAO cases? Just brainstorming. Could that list's def. of a +NAO look different graphically vs what we think of as a +NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Pack, Yes it does for the mean of the nine non-1993 dates. I don't have an answer. Both of us have put out hard data though the pattern you show for the nine non-1993 dates, indeed, looks pretty -NAOish. I wonder how each of the nine would look individually. Could the three -NAO cases (3/9/2960, 3/11/1960, 3/2/2010) be more dominant than the six non-1993 +NAO cases? Just brainstorming. Could that list's def. of a +NAO look different graphically vs what we think of as a +NAO? Yeah, I am not sure either, but goes back to what we were both saying, -NAO isn't required. But, I like my odds better with one :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Just watching ... Good luck up there on one more winter day! Summer's hit north Fla :~( It's here to stay .... Here's to you !!!!!!!!!!!!! Best, Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 higher heights over the pole and Greenland don't always translate to a negative NAO. Looks can be deceiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 higher heights over the pole and Greenland don't always translate to a negative NAO. Looks can be deceiving. Nothing deceiving about the blocking showing on the GFS, euro , eps and GEFS Unless it does not come to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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