Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread III

[downeastnc]

Why do we even look at models anymore ?? Didnt we learn anything from our " snowstorms"

the past few weeks? Cut those raine totals by 3/4, then have some be drizzle instead of actual rain. , and you will be close to the final totals!

 

Not here double it and it will be right, if it is rain of course. Heck we have to be close to 10" for the year already, we had over 5" in Jan and Feb was wetter than Jan....

[Met1985]

Yeah, I might not go all in on the totals, but the pattern supports clouds, bouts of rain, and generally unsettled weather. The region is in southerly or southwesterly flow for an extended period of time, with impulses moving through. We're between a ridge off the coast and a trough back over the south central part of the country. It's a good pattern for rain. All the models pretty much agree on the big things. TN looks to be in the best position for the highest totals.

Good post CR. We are entering a very wet period as of right now. We are seeing moisture stream right from the gulf and with El Nino cranking up I think we will stay wet.

[Met1985]

I think we enter into a big pattern change in about 10 days. The epo looks to rebuild along with the pna spiking and the ao actually looks to tank. If you think winter is over you have not lived here long enough.

[Cold Rain]

Was that a "Robert" like ULL on your fall back map!????

It looks very close to a triple phaser!

[LithiaWx]

Good post CR. We are entering a very wet period as of right now. We are seeing moisture stream right from the gulf and with El Nino cranking up I think we will stay wet.

I think we enter into a big pattern change in about 10 days. The epo looks to rebuild along with the pna spiking and the ao actually looks to tank. If you think winter is over you have not lived here long enough.

Met winter ended on 3/1 and lay people winter ends on 3/21. Pretty sure those are the dates regardless of where you live. Maybe the mountains can get another bout of wintery precip but met winter is over and lay people winter has less than two weeks left.

[South_MountainWX]

Im not worried about a drought. Was supposed to get drizzle today. Been raining steady since 8 o'clock this morning.

[Jon]

I think we enter into a big pattern change in about 10 days. The epo looks to rebuild along with the pna spiking and the ao actually looks to tank. If you think winter is over you have not lived here long enough.

I've never lived there at 3500', but we could not see freezing again here....so I don't think I'd go as far as saying winter isn't over, mild temperatures on the way...not exactly warm but not too cold either, par for the course max/mins climo speaking, at least here in Central NC. Just my opinion, not sold on any bonus frozen precip or anything like that going forward, just a lot of cold chasing moisture setups and the cold being barely 32 mostly 33+ & rain if it happens.

[Met1985]

Met winter ended on 3/1 and lay people winter ends on 3/21. Pretty sure those are the dates regardless of where you live. Maybe the mountains can get another bout of wintery precip but met winter is over and lay people winter has less than two weeks left.

thanks for the rundown bud. Yeah the rest of you have slim opportunities for more frozen weather. Should have been more detailed.

[FallsLake]

I've never lived there at 3500', but we could not see freezing again here....so I don't think I'd go as far as saying winter isn't over, mild temperatures on the way...not exactly warm but not too cold either, par for the course max/mins climo speaking, at least here in Central NC. Just my opinion, not sold on any bonus frozen precip or anything like that going forward, just a lot of cold chasing moisture setups and the cold being barely 32 mostly 33+ & rain if it happens.

We're entering a different season and freeze/frost threats will now be the big news. As others have stated it looks to get cold at the end of March. Snow will be the least of our worries (or hopes). With this current warm spell I fear we could be setting up for some agricultural problems.

[LithiaWx]

thanks for the rundown bud. Yeah the rest of you have slim opportunities for more frozen weather. Should have been more detailed.

Anytime sir, the next 7-10 days won't produce snow in the southeast, even the mountains . So hang your hat on late March and hope that the modeled cold and Roberts ULL he is predicting a week out will produce. Spring and summer are knocking, tick tick goes the clock

[calculus1]

Yup, dry as a bone in the SE! The drought monitor is going to have to be flipped on early this year, it looks like:

 

:lmao:

 

That's a big change from 0z model run, but that does look really wet. IF this is right we do have flooding issues by this weekend in to next week.

 

But not a big change from every other model run yesterday.  The extended GFS has been spitting out 4+ inch rain totals (over the next 10 days) for WNC and upstate SC for the past couple of days.  I'm glad you were able to find the single run out of the past ten or so, that showed "only" 2 inches of rainfall for the same area.

[mackerel_sky]

I've never lived there at 3500', but we could not see freezing again here....so I don't think I'd go as far as saying winter isn't over, mild temperatures on the way...not exactly warm but not too cold either, par for the course max/mins climo speaking, at least here in Central NC. Just my opinion, not sold on any bonus frozen precip or anything like that going forward, just a lot of cold chasing moisture setups and the cold being barely 32 mostly 33+ & rain if it happens.

But JB said the south wasn't done with snow!?? He must have been speaking of Amarillo!?

[calculus1]

Im not worried about a drought. Was supposed to get drizzle today. Been raining steady since 8 o'clock this morning.

 

I know.  This was a missed call.  Yesterday, I was not forecast by the NWS to get any rain until after 4 PM today.  Woke up to rain and wasn't able to enjoy the disc golf outing that was on the schedule.  Bummer.

 

Anytime sir, the next 7-10 days won't produce snow in the southeast, even the mountains . So hang your hat on late March and hope that the modeled cold and Roberts ULL he is predicting a week out will produce. Spring and summer are knocking, tick tick goes the clock

 

We can count on you for bold forecasts, MariettaWx.  The NWS missed today's forecast for my area only 24 hours out, and yet you're confident of what's going to happen (or not happen) over the next 10 days?  I'll just sit back and observe, I think, without any grand expectations one way or the other.  I'm definitely not as assured of no wintry precipitation in the mountains, as you seem to be.

 

BTW, I am not taking a swipe at the NWS in this post.  They have an incredibly difficult job, and we often expect perfection from them.  I'm just trying to prove the point that if our government's top meteorologists don't get it right 24 hours out, I won't place too much faith in us hobbyists being able to do any better.

[LithiaWx]

I know. This was a missed call. Yesterday, I was not forecast by the NWS to get any rain until after 4 PM today. Woke up to rain and wasn't able to enjoy the disc golf outing that was on the schedule. Bummer.

We can count on you for bold forecasts, MariettaWx. The NWS missed today's forecast for my area only 24 hours out, and yet you're confident of what's going to happen (or not happen) over the next 10 days? I'll just sit back and observe, I think, without any grand expectations one way or the other. I'm definitely not as assured of no wintry precipitation in the mountains, as you seem to be.

BTW, I am not taking a swipe at the NWS in this post. They have an incredibly difficult job, and we often expect perfection from them. I'm just trying to prove the point that if our government's top meteorologists don't get it right 24 hours out, I won't place too much faith in us hobbyists being able to do any better.

The year is 2015 not 1985. there isnt a conducive pattern for snow in the southeast for at least a week maybe longer. We are in a pattern that will produce rain not snow for the next while. It doesn't take a scientist to see this.

GoM flow for the win and no snow lol

[Cold Rain]

I know.  This was a missed call.  Yesterday, I was not forecast by the NWS to get any rain until after 4 PM today.  Woke up to rain and wasn't able to enjoy the disc golf outing that was on the schedule.  Bummer.

 

 

We can count on you for bold forecasts, MariettaWx.  The NWS missed today's forecast for my area only 24 hours out, and yet you're confident of what's going to happen (or not happen) over the next 10 days?  I'll just sit back and observe, I think, without any grand expectations one way or the other.  I'm definitely not as assured of no wintry precipitation in the mountains, as you seem to be.

 

BTW, I am not taking a swipe at the NWS in this post.  They have an incredibly difficult job, and we often expect perfection from them.  I'm just trying to prove the point that if our government's top meteorologists don't get it right 24 hours out, I won't place too much faith in us hobbyists being able to do any better.

Marietta likes to declare things. That's his style. Climo would argue against snow as we get into late March. Also, there's no real snow pattern showing up either. We'd want to see our source region up in Canada icebox cold, and it doesn't look like it's going to be cold enough up there. We'd also want to see that link up with a big ULL. Not saying those things can't happen, because declaring something to be the case 10+ days out is just not a great idea. Things can and do change, and we can and do get snow in late March outside the mountains, even though it is not likely.

[Cold Rain]

12z for comparison (keeps the bullseye over TN. Backed off on totals in other places...sorry Shetley):

[No snow for you]

12z for comparison (keeps the bullseye over TN. Backed off on totals in other places...sorry Shetley):

gfs_namer_192_precip_ptot.gif

Dang. I just started building the ark. 

 

I find this interesting because I seem to remember in models like this, they do not handle the convection very well. 

[Cold Rain]

Dang. I just started building the ark. 

 

I find this interesting because I seem to remember in models like this, they do not handle the convection very well.

I think part of what you're seeing here is the "2nd" rain event. I posted roughly the 192 hour cumulative precip maps. The first bout of rain is generally pretty plentiful. But then toward the end of the period, a strong shortwave dives southeast and closes off as it moves through the area. The 12z retrogrades the upper low over TX back west through Mexico. Previous runs maintained that farther east allowing for some interaction with the shortwave dropping southeast, producing more rain. That shortwave closes off more vigorously this run, but it produces much less rain. I'm sure the next run will be different.

Also, you frequently get convective feedback issues, which can play havoc with QPF forecasts and low pressure placements. I don't think there's a lot of that going on here, though, with respect to the general precipitation pattern.

One more edit to state that the first event is sort of a prolonged period of showery weather, with embedded periods of widespread rain. This will be driven by pockets of energy in the SW flow rotating around the main ULL/trough back over TX. Most likely, the models are going to see these pockets of energy differently from run to run. And the placement of the main ULL/trough will shift around some too. These small variations will change the model's QPF.

In and near TN still looks very good for soaking rain and plenty of it, although most of the SE should see a decent amount of rain when it's all said and done. Most rain lovers will be satisfied, with the exception of maybe one person....

[Cold Rain]

Lol the CMC says you won't even see the sun for 10 days at least (0z run). I can't see past 180 on the 12z, but it has the same idea. 0z Euro matches the 12z GFS in the way they retrograde the TX ULL. CMC, nassomuch. It retrogrades it some, but it keeps an open trough that continues to interact with northern stream energy throughout the run. The SE is going to be a mess if that verifies.

[calculus1]

(1) Marietta likes to declare things. That's his style. Climo would argue against snow as we get into late March. Also, there's no real snow pattern showing up either. We'd want to see our source region up in Canada icebox cold, and it doesn't look like it's going to be cold enough up there. We'd also want to see that link up with a big ULL. Not saying those things can't happen, because declaring something to be the case 10+ days out is just not a great idea. (2) Things can and do change, and we can and do get snow in late March outside the mountains, even though it is not likely.

 

(1) I know it.  He enjoys being contentious for the sake of being contentious, as he's readily admitted before.  #StirThePot

 

(2) I agree that there appears to be no snow in the foreseeable future for the majority of the SE, but the mountains (as I expressly referenced in my post above) are an entirely different breed.  I think MariettaWx is enjoying illusions of grandeur if he believes he can predict, with absolute certainty, the type of weather that will occur in the mountains over the next ten days.  He may end up being correct with his brazen call of no snowfall, but I'll chalk it up to chance, if so.  It's a coin flip, IMO.

[DaculaWeather]

(1) I know it.  He enjoys being contentious for the sake of being contentious, as he's readily admitted before.  #StirThePot

 

(2) I agree that there appears to be no snow in the foreseeable future for the majority of the SE, but the mountains (as I expressly referenced in my post above) are an entirely different breed.  I think MariettaWx is enjoying illusions of grandeur if he believes he can predict, with absolute certainty, the type of weather that will occur in the mountains over the next ten days.  He may end up being correct with his brazen call of no snowfall, but I'll chalk it up to chance, if so.  It's a coin flip, IMO.

More than likely he'll be correct simply based on climo, but that is far from any educated stab at what's going to happen. I think the mountains will still see something... that would be my call.

[LithiaWx]

(1) I know it.  He enjoys being contentious for the sake of being contentious, as he's readily admitted before.  #StirThePot

 

(2) I agree that there appears to be no snow in the foreseeable future for the majority of the SE, but the mountains (as I expressly referenced in my post above) are an entirely different breed.  I think MariettaWx is enjoying illusions of grandeur if he believes he can predict, with absolute certainty, the type of weather that will occur in the mountains over the next ten days.  He may end up being correct with his brazen call of no snowfall, but I'll chalk it up to chance, if so.  It's a coin flip, IMO.

 

 

More than likely he'll be correct simply based on climo, but that is far from any educated stab at what's going to happen. I think the mountains will still see something... that would be my call.

 

My opinion isn't a guess or riding climo. My opinion was formed by reviewing all the modeled data available and that clearly shows there will be no snow in the SE over the next 7-10 days.  The pattern is a moist one that will bring heavy GoM rains across the area.  It's pretty much the opposite of a pattern that would produce snowfall in the mountains.  I called for snow at least twice this year.  When I see it I say I think snow is coming.  When I don't like the first half of winter and the coming week I call it like I see it.  Who knows what will happen after this pattern relaxes but my guess at that point is winter will be fleeting and on it's last breath. After a week's time about all you can lean on is climo.  Again this is 2015 not 1985, there is a huge difference in the NWS missing when the rains will come in and looking at a pattern and seeing zero shot at snowfall which is what we have. 

 

Snow has the ability to take smart folks who know better and turn them into wishcasting weenies...  It's really sad and a psychologist would have a field day analyzing some of you guys.  Maybe I end up being wrong but I highly doubt it based on what every global model is currently showing ho the next seven days will shape up.

[Cold Rain]

I am going to go on record and agree with Marietta that it will not snow in the SE through the next 7 to probably 10 days. After that, difficult to see. Always in motion is the future. I will not say that we will not see any snow near the end of March or early April, though if you're going to give 100% weight to climo, the odds are not great. But there's no good reason to be definitive, though.

Snow has the ability to take smart folks who know better and turn them into wishcasting weenies... It's really sad and a psychologist would have a field day analyzing some of you guys. Maybe I end up being wrong but I highly doubt it based on what every global model is currently showing ho the next seven days will shape up.

Conversely, I don't think anyone is calling for snow over the next 7-10 days. If they are, I've missed it.

[Jon]

I am going to go on record and agree with Marietta that it will not snow in the SE through the next 7 to probably 10 days. After that, difficult to see. Always in motion is the future. I will not say that we will not see any snow near the end of March or early April, though if you're going to give 100% weight to climo, the odds are not great. But there's no good reason to be definitive, though.

Conversely, I don't think anyone is calling for snow over the next 7-10 days. If they are, I've missed it.

Be careful, you're agreeing with "noJ" as well

[Cold Rain]

Be careful, you're agreeing with "noJ" as well

Haha, yeah that's true, I guess.

[LithiaWx]

I am going to go on record and agree with Marietta that it will not snow in the SE through the next 7 to probably 10 days. After that, difficult to see. Always in motion is the future. I will not say that we will not see any snow near the end of March or early April, though if you're going to give 100% weight to climo, the odds are not great. But there's no good reason to be definitive, though.

Conversely, I don't think anyone is calling for snow over the next 7-10 days. If they are, I've missed it.

 

Well you certainly have folks objecting to the notion of no snow in the next 7-10 day frame...  Not sure there is much of a difference there....

[Cold Rain]

Well you certainly have folks objecting to the notion of no snow in the next 7-10 day frame...  Not sure there is much of a difference there....

I think it was more about declaring no snow for the rest of March or April. It's not likely, but it certainly can still happen. I think that was all it was. Seems like pretty much everyone is in agreement about the next 7, to probably 10 days.

[Upstate Tiger]

Right on cue.....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml

[superjames1992]

We're entering a different season and freeze/frost threats will now be the big news. As others have stated it looks to get cold at the end of March. Snow will be the least of our worries (or hopes). With this current warm spell I fear we could be setting up for some agricultural problems.

Eh, it's snowed here in late March each of the last two seasons (no accumulation, though). Plus, there was the March 18th ice event last year that resulted in some sleet and ice accumulations. There was also non-accumulating sleet during the day in early April 2013, which was cool.

I think the last time we had an accumulating snowfall in late March here (post-March 20th) was March 30, 2003.

[LithiaWx]

I think it was more about declaring no snow for the rest of March or April. It's not likely, but it certainly can still happen. I think that was all it was. Seems like pretty much everyone is in agreement about the next 7, to probably 10 days.

 

I didn't see anyone declaring that, I guess that's the confusion....  I said no snow south of I-20 till next season.  Anyone saying anything definitive about late march or early April regarding snow north of those areas would be foolish.