BIG FROSTY Posted March 7, 2015 Author Share Posted March 7, 2015 We're gonna need all the help we can get: strong west-based -NAO, cross-polar flow, dynamic cooling ftw, excellent high pressure, and the perfect track. That's not much to ask for, Is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Wow, the long range looks quite wet on the 12Z GFS. If it were to come to fruition, there appears to be rain in most of NC from Tuesday until the following Thursday (9 or so days). And a lot of that rain is with some pretty serious CAD in place. There's at least two really strong coastal storms out beyond day 7, as well. Neither is currently modeled to bring any serious winter weather to the SE, but that could easily change. Methinks Winter has not had her final say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 The CFSv2 keeps showing colder than normal temperatures from late March into early April. I definitely think there's potential for more wintery precipitation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 The CFSv2 keeps showing colder than normal temperatures from late March into early April. I definitely think there's potential for more wintery precipitation... At that time it will be bigger news if we're going to get a frost of freeze. I'm definitely worried about the next week of so; no freezing temps will mean plants will start growing(..blooming). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 You have done a complete 180 over the last few weeks. For the rest of the month, you will be noJ! Fine with me! I said I'd cancel winter around March 15th if literally no events worked out...since a good amount of NC got snow with that one event, I'm happy to end winter a bit earlier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 rain.gif Just 5-10 inches of rain for most of WNC the next 10 days... can't we make that snow instead of rain. oh and after it rains it will turn cold and dry. then warm and rain, same old same old, we need moisture and cold together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 I'm still on the hunt for winter! The 6z GFS says keep an eye on the 13-14th! Monster wedge with 1046 high just above NY in Canada ! There is some frozen in extreme NW piedmont locations of NC, and looks like alot of frozen, just across the border in VA. And the 23rd says hello , with a monster bomb off the NC coast and heavy snow, atleast to end for C and E NC! Marvelous March ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 And the 23rd says hello , with a monster bomb off the NC coast and heavy snow, atleast to end for C and E NC! Looks to me like just another chilly rain, and not even all that chilly, with 2M temps near 50 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 12Z GFS says yes to torrential rain and flooding.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 GFS is like "Yo dawg, I heard you like blocking so we put blocking in your blocking so you can block while you block." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 GFS is like "Yo dawg, I heard you like blocking so we put blocking in your blocking so you can block while you block." Looks great for NE. Move it down south about 800 miles and we would be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 can't we make that snow instead of rain. oh and after it rains it will turn cold and dry. then warm and rain, same old same old, we need moisture and cold together. I thought you were a great lover of rain based on your complaints when you don't get enough. Also, we're past the 2/28 ending date when rain is evil. The rain is evil period is only 12/1-2/28. I would have expected you to be jumping up and down due to extreme excitement about all of the upcoming rain. Ooops , never mind. I was thinking of the other whiny poster with a "y" at the end of the name. Never mind. I apologize. Go back to whining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 I thought you were a great lover of rain based on your complaints when you don't get enough. Also, we're past the 2/28 ending date when rain is evil. The rain is evil period is only 12/1-2/28. I would have expected you to be jumping up and down due to extreme excitement about all of the upcoming rain. Ooops , never mind. I was thinking of the other whiny poster with a "y" at the end of the name. Never mind. I apologize. Go back to whining. We should not hear a peep out of shetley , after all the rain we are going to get in the next 2 weeks+, he should be good the rest of summer! How does a weak niño affect summer!? Does it keep it wetter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 We should not hear a peep out of shetley , after all the rain we are going to get in the next 2 weeks+, he should be good the rest of summer! How does a weak niño affect summer!? Does it keep it wetter? I'm not sure if there's a significant wetter correlation for the SE US in a weak Niño. Maybe. The tropics do tend to be somewhat less active on average, which could reduce the average expected tropical related rainfall. Then again, systems that develop in the subtropics don't seem to be diminished. Regardless, I'd think anything would be better than La Niña if you don't want a hot, dry summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 8, 2015 Share Posted March 8, 2015 Looks great for NE. Move it down south about 800 miles and we would be in business. Move that blocking high to the Davis strait, and then we are in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 I thought you were a great lover of rain based on your complaints when you don't get enough. Also, we're past the 2/28 ending date when rain is evil. The rain is evil period is only 12/1-2/28. I would have expected you to be jumping up and down due to extreme excitement about all of the upcoming rain. Ooops , never mind. I was thinking of the other whiny poster with a "y" at the end of the name. Never mind. I apologize. Go back to whining. Hey man you got to take the bad with the good and this winter has been bad. now really has there been anything worth being so over thrilled about this winter? you guys or just some of you may call it whining but its facts man and these threads are to speak your opinion wheather your happy about winter or not. Oh and right you've got me confused with someone else because I rather have sunny and pretty over cloudy and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Hey man you got to take the bad with the good and this winter has been bad. now really has there been anything worth being so over thrilled about this winter? you guys or just some of you may call it whining but its facts man and these threads are to speak your opinion wheather your happy about winter or not. Oh and right you've got me confused with someone else because I rather have sunny and pretty over cloudy and rain. fritschy, Well, after a fab Feb., Asheville actually got a little ahead of seasonal averages as of the end of Feb. with 13.3" vs. 11.9" for Nov-Feb normals. You just got 250% of your average Feb. snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 We should not hear a peep out of shetley , after all the rain we are going to get in the next 2 weeks+, he should be good the rest of summer! How does a weak niño affect summer!? Does it keep it wetter? It looks as if our rain is backing off. Our area does not get much at least until Friday it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 It looks as if our rain is backing off. Our area does not get much at least until Friday it seems.Yeah, kind of like our snows, all this rain and ark building and stuff , and between now and Thursday , we look to get a .10 of an inch!#FLOODING! Just feel we are due a hot, dusty dry summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Man, winters over! Except for Friday, we are mid 60s-mid 70s , the next 10 days!!! Marvelous March fail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Spring forward: Fall back: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 It's looking like we may have spring this year instead of going straight from winter to summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Yup, dry as a bone in the SE! The drought monitor is going to have to be flipped on early this year, it looks like: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 That's a big change from 0z model run, but that does look really wet. IF this is right we do have flooding issues by this weekend in to next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Here's the 0z for comparison: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Yup, dry as a bone in the SE! The drought monitor is going to have to be flipped on early this year, it looks like: gfs_namer_192_precip_ptot.gif Why do we even look at models anymore ?? Didnt we learn anything from our " snowstorms" the past few weeks? Cut those raine totals by 3/4, then have some be drizzle instead of actual rain. , and you will be close to the final totals! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Why do we even look at models anymore ?? Didnt we learn anything from our " snowstorms" the past few weeks? Cut those raine totals by 3/4, then have some be drizzle instead of actual rain. , and you will be close to the final totals! My swamp of a yard disagrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Why do we even look at models anymore ?? Didnt we learn anything from our " snowstorms" the past few weeks? Cut those raine totals by 3/4, then have some be drizzle instead of actual rain. , and you will be close to the final totals! Yeah, I might not go all in on the totals, but the pattern supports clouds, bouts of rain, and generally unsettled weather. The region is in southerly or southwesterly flow for an extended period of time, with impulses moving through. We're between a ridge off the coast and a trough back over the south central part of the country. It's a good pattern for rain. All the models pretty much agree on the big things. TN looks to be in the best position for the highest totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 Yeah, I might not go all in on the totals, but the pattern supports clouds, bouts of rain, and generally unsettled weather. The region is in southerly or southwesterly flow for an extended period of time, with impulses moving through. We're between a ridge off the coast and a trough back over the south central part of the country. It's a good pattern for rain. All the models pretty much agree on the big things. TN looks to be in the best position for the highest totals.Was that a "Robert" like ULL on your fall back map!???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 9, 2015 Share Posted March 9, 2015 I am ready for winter to be over, but not looking forward to a week of rain. I want nice spring weather, with sunny and 70, not this mess we are going to have this week. I am supposed to go on a field trip Thursday with my daughter's preschool class, and looking forward to going to the OBX at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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