mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Do yall have any idea of how many post brick is gonna put out tommorow complaining about cold / dry. And he'll be at work.25, minimum! Cause nobody works the first week of the year ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Sub 500 thicknesses dip into northern NC this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Saw the Meteostar. Are those highs in the twenties possibly as far as Charleston on 1/9? Epic cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 GSO gets down to 8 on the Euro. I think the 12z run had a low in the upper teens. Looks like the cold matches up well with the GFS. After eight consecutive winters without any single digit temperatures, we might get two winters in a row with them here. 1000-500 mb thicknesses are nuts. 498 dm makes it into N NC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Saw the Meteostar. Are those highs in the twenties possibly as far as Charleston on 1/9? Epic cold. Yeah. High would likely come in the morning (around 30) but temps crash during day to a low of 20 or 19, per Euro...so likely people won't be up for the "high"...yeah, it's cold. 1/9 same thing, except high in evening is around 34 I believe...I'm eyeballing a SC map for Charleston, so I think I'm close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah. High would likely come in the morning (around 30) but temps crash during day to a low of 20 or 19, per Euro...so likely people won't be up for the "high"...yeah, it's cold. 1/9 same thing, except high in evening is around 34 I believe...I'm eyeballing a SC map for Charleston, so I think I'm close There's something awesome about hitting a high early in the morning/afternoon and being able to go outside and feel the wind drop the temps fast as the cold surges in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Looking back at an old post, for the record, it seems Euro saw cold drop first at 216 hours out...although it flipped again if I recall correctly...GFS para then caught on and never let go, followed by GFS, then Euro again. Just shows how much the models are struggling right now at least in the LR. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45184-winter-2014-2015-pattern-discussion-thread-ii/?view=findpost&p=3218509 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 There's something awesome about hitting a high early in the morning/afternoon and being able to go outside and feel the wind drop the temps fast as the cold surges in. Agreed. I like watching DP's crash on stations around me (don't have my own), cold dry air FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 GSO gets down to 8 on the Euro. I think the 12z run had a low in the upper teens. Looks like the cold matches up well with the GFS. After eight consecutive winters without any single digit temperatures, we might get two winters in a row with them here. 1000-500 mb thicknesses are nuts. 498 dm makes it into N NC! Looking at GSO sounding from 1/7/2014, thickness only got as low as 517 dam. Breaking into sub-500 dam would be insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Wow the low for RDU is 14...high? 20... And the Euro EPS and OP had a SE RIDGE during this time period....now the 00z run comes in like it has in the LR, meanwhile the Euro LR looks terrible. I don't know who I trust but I do lean in the GFS's direction for Day 10+, surprisingly. If it didn't see this first cold snap, will it see the next? Would love to see the verification scores Euro vs GFS from Dec 18th to present. Just my two cents but I think we end up in a reloading pattern with this cold. I think the GFS has the right of it. Relax and reload over the next three weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 6z GFS looks about the same a the 0z. Event in the long range it shows a brief warm up before more cold spills in. The cold does look very eastern oriented. For a nice winter storm setup, we really want the cold centered a little more westward(..ironic). But this is the long range and even if this does setup like depicted there could easily be some clipper action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Just my two cents but I think we end up in a reloading pattern with this cold. I think the GFS has the right of it. Relax and reload over the next three weeks. I think it's important to just get the cold air into the SE at this time period. Eventually things will setup for our winter storm. Many were writing off January, so this cold will be bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 RAH starting t step the temps down for next week: BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULFTHROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE REST OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WHICHSHOULD CERTAINLY LIMIT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TOWARD CENTRALNORTH CAROLINA. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS CENTRALNORTH CAROLINA LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND WHILE THISFRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY...IT SHOULD YIELD QUITE CHILLYTEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...COLDEST THURSDAY WITH HIGHSIN MANY LOCATIONS LIKELY STAYING IN THE 30S. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHAXIS MOVES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATEWEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AXIS THERE ISFORECAST AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA FORWEDNESDAY. MODEL QPF IS NONE AND MEX AND MEE MOS GUIDANCE POPS AREBELOW CLIMATOLOGY...SO WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. AFORECAST ALTERNATIVE WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MOSTLY TRACEPRECIPITATION TOWARD THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE THE DRY 850MB AIR ISNOT QUITE AS DRY RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.SPEAKING OF DRY AIR...WITH THE COLDER AIR COULD COME SOME FAIRLY LOWSURFACE DEW POINTS. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE DEW POINTS WELLBELOW ZERO THURSDAY...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO -10F BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.WILL HOLD OFF GOING THAT LOW FOR NOW...BUT STILL SHOW WIDESPREADSURFACE DEW POINTS OF ZERO TO -5F THURSDAY. 1000-850MB THICKNESSESWOULD SUPPORT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT BELOW THE FORECAST...BUT WILLSTRAY CLOSER TO THE HPC AND MOS GUIDANCE...STILL FORECASTING A LOTOF TEENS...OVER CONCERNS ABOUT UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTFLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY DUE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Do yall have any idea of how many post brick is gonna put out tommorow complaining about cold / dry. And he'll be at work. I'm there with him. What's exciting about cold and dry? I talked to Frosty Wednesday and he hates cold and dry. Now I like to see how cold we can get after it snows but just cold and dry is useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 It's erie how close we are resembling to last year. If that's any indication we should have a winter storm between the 15th - 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 It's erie how close we are resembling to last year. If that's any indication we should have a winter storm between the 15th - 24th. Last year's storm was January 21st I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Last year's storm was January 21st I think? There was a storm on the 21st, but the first snow of the season north of US 64 came on the 15-16th... I like the idea (if @ all) of trying to squeeze one out just a tad earlier, maybe in the 2nd week of January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 It's erie how close we are resembling to last year. If that's any indication we should have a winter storm between the 15th - 24th. I like how the progression of an El Nino winter fits w/ last year around here, but it's obvious this isn't a repeat of last year . For starters, the temperature distribution in December is a complete inversion of this year, coldest anoms this yr generally towards the SE US, warmest over the midwest & north-central Rockies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 6z GFS for temp at hour 156 (mid day Thursday): http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=01&model_dd=02&model_init_hh=06&fhour=156¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Dew points for the same time (-15 to -20 or less over the SE). Imagine the static electricity. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=01&model_dd=02&model_init_hh=06&fhour=156¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 There was a storm on the 21st, but the first snow of the season north of US 64 came on the 15-16th... I like the idea (if @ all) of trying to squeeze one out just a tad earlier, maybe in the 2nd week of January... I believe our first real cold snap didn't come until around Jan. 12th or so? Clippers never work out for my area but def. would not be shocked for something to get caught in the northern branch and eek out a surprise either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I like how the progression of an El Nino winter fits w/ last year around here, but it's obvious this isn't a repeat of last year . For starters, the temperature distribution in December is a complete inversion of this year, coldest anoms this yr generally towards the SE US, warmest over the midwest & north-central Rockies... Well def. pattern differences.....however just from a pure timing perspective and similarity with a big cold dump kind of coming at us when the models have been in madness mode. Same thing last year around here. My prediction is about as scientific as a psychic but just funny how it appears to be working out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 When it rains it pours; more good news from the indices: PNA - looks to go back positive very quickly NAO - Goes more positive but looks to dive negative in the LR AO - After getting up towards +4 also looks to dive negative in the LR. So it would seem our chances should significantly increase for winter storms at mid to late month. All this cold/dry air will (maybe) set us up for a great ending to the month. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 When it rains it pours; more good news from the indices: PNA - looks to go back positive very quickly NAO - Goes more positive but looks to dive negative in the LR AO - After getting up towards +4 also looks to dive negative in the LR. So it would seem our chances should significantly increase for winter storms at mid to late month. All this cold/dry air will (maybe) set us up for a great ending to the month. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Looks like that NAO dive is happening around the 16th....perfect timing to me. This could get very interesting over the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I believe our first real cold snap didn't come until around Jan. 12th or so? Clippers never work out for my area but def. would not be shocked for something to get caught in the northern branch and eek out a surprise either. Here's the daily summary for last January for our general area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 6z GFS looks about the same a the 0z. Event in the long range it shows a brief warm up before more cold spills in. The cold does look very eastern oriented. For a nice winter storm setup, we really want the cold centered a little more westward(..ironic). But this is the long range and even if this does setup like depicted there could easily be some clipper action. 6z was colder than 0z for some areas. 6z @156 hrs: 0z @ 162 hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 When it rains it pours; more good news from the indices: PNA - looks to go back positive very quickly NAO - Goes more positive but looks to dive negative in the LR AO - After getting up towards +4 also looks to dive negative in the LR. So it would seem our chances should significantly increase for winter storms at mid to late month. All this cold/dry air will (maybe) set us up for a great ending to the month. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml It's interesting we aren't torching with phase 5, +AO, and +NAO. I know EPO is dominating but can't imagine what would happen with phase 8/1/2, -AO, +PNA... if it ever comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 DT made a point about MJO plots from SUNY-Albany (http://www.wxrisk.com/this-issue-is-still-undecided/) and noted on his Facebook page how well these plots are performing lately. Interesting... Those things have done well....I'm confused why he's so pessimistic on things if we go into the COD, its a hell of a lot better than 4-5-6...yes its not as good as 7-8-1 but it does not mean we're going to torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Those things have done well....I'm confused why he's so pessimistic on things if we go into the COD, its a hell of a lot better than 4-5-6...yes its not as good as 7-8-1 but it does not mean we're going to torch Curious what he actually thinks is going to happen, essentially he just said how the MJO goes we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Here's the daily summary for last January for our general area: Thanks. For some reason I thought that first big cold push came more towards the middle of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Those things have done well....I'm confused why he's so pessimistic on things if we go into the COD, its a hell of a lot better than 4-5-6...yes its not as good as 7-8-1 but it does not mean we're going to torch Yeah, we start to put the MJO into the Pacific & down goes the AO/NAO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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