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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread III


BIG FROSTY

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Suddenly the Euro weeklies that some people bashed when they showed no winter weather are now being trotted out as evidence of blocking and cold coming by the same folks who said they were garbage when they didn't show blocking o cold. Talk about a mental disorder. All hail King Euro, it is a great model but jeezz guys bi polar much?

You should have learned by now , we love whatever model is showing cold and snow and toss the ones that show warm and no snow! :)

Marvelous March !

Robert is mentioning ULL again! Saying zonal pattern won't last long, and will get amplified again. Expect some volatility and surprises!

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You should have learned by now , we love whatever model is showing cold and snow and toss the ones that show warm and no snow! :)

Marvelous March !

Robert is mentioning ULL again! Saying zonal pattern won't last long, and will get amplified again. Expect some volatility and surprises!

Cold Rain mentioned ULL earlier today. You'll probably get snow and it'll weaken just in time to give Packbacker rain.

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You should have learned by now , we love whatever model is showing cold and snow and toss the ones that show warm and no snow! :)

Marvelous March !

Robert is mentioning ULL again! Saying zonal pattern won't last long, and will get amplified again. Expect some volatility and surprises!

yep virginia, kentucky will get a paste job again and we'll get a cold rain at 35.   :ee:

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March 17th is gonna be the one!!

I tell you what, if you look at the 6z GFS, there are so many strong wedges and gulf and coastal lows, if we had this pattern in Jan, we would be telling our great grand children about! Now it's just alot of 30s/40s and miserable cold rain! As somebody mentioned, it really will look like Seatlle around here the next 2 weeks, atleast!

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If the NAO goes neg all bets will be off.  Looking at the LR GFS you can see what the -NAO does to a storm track.  Of course we can't take anything really serious from the GFS (or any other model for that matter at this range) but the 6z had a SE bomb on it around the 16th-18th of this month.  The -NAO holds the storm just off the east coast as it shuffles its feet north..  Not saying that we will get a snowstorm during this time period, but if you want the possibility of large totals for your area then you should hope the NAO goes negative.  This will be somewhat of a threaded needle type scenario but I would say the needle has a little bigger hole then normal.  This should be the last time frame this winter for snow in the SE, then severe season fires up and the tornado chasing begins.  

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If the NAO goes neg all bets will be off.  Looking at the LR GFS you can see what the -NAO does to a storm track.  Of course we can't take anything really serious from the GFS (or any other model for that matter at this range) but the 6z had a SE bomb on it around the 16th-18th of this month.  The -NAO holds the storm just off the east coast as it shuffles its feet north..  Not saying that we will get a snowstorm during this time period, but if you want the possibility of large totals for your area then you should hope the NAO goes negative.  This will be somewhat of a threaded needle type scenario but I would say the needle has a little bigger hole then normal.  This should be the last time frame this winter for snow in the SE, then severe season fires up and the tornado chasing begins.  

 

That setup on the 06Z needs to shift 500 miles west so we are firmly on the severe side of that setup otherwise its cold rain for 99% of us....I have had TONS of cold rain this winter and its time to get some boomers going

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That setup on the 06Z needs to shift 500 miles west so we are firmly on the severe side of that setup otherwise its cold rain for 99% of us....I have had TONS of cold rain this winter and its time to get some boomers going

 

Yeah man I am ready for severe season too.  If trends continue like they have all year this will end up being a cutter ha.  Nonetheless, we haven't had an impactful -NAO in a while so it will be interesting to see if it holds anything special for part of the board.  If there was an ideal pattern for March it would be +PNA, -NAO, & -AO.  Currently that is what the 00z indices had for around the 15th so we shall see.  Wouldn't mind seeing the -NAO hang around though.  That onshore flow would seems to be ideal for meso development on the NC coast going into the beginning of April.

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That setup on the 06Z needs to shift 500 miles west so we are firmly on the severe side of that setup otherwise its cold rain for 99% of us....I have had TONS of cold rain this winter and its time to get some boomers going

We're gonna need all the help we can get: strong west-based -NAO, cross-polar flow, dynamic cooling ftw, excellent high pressure, and the perfect track.

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With the lows averaging above 40 for the next 10+ days I don't know why anyone would root for any kind fo wintry set up. I want severe wx asap! We've already had low Feb tornado numbers and we're on track to have low march numbers...make it stop!

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With the lows averaging above 40 for the next 10+ days I don't know why anyone would root for any kind fo wintry set up. I want severe wx asap! We've already had low Feb tornado numbers and we're on track to have low march numbers...make it stop!

Tornados are boring. Just give me the hail! I had three seperate events last year, and they were awesome! Can go years and decades without seeing hail around here!
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With the lows averaging above 40 for the next 10+ days I don't know why anyone would root for any kind fo wintry set up. I want severe wx asap! We've already had low Feb tornado numbers and we're on track to have low march numbers...make it stop!

You have done a complete 180 over the last few weeks. For the rest of the month, you will be noJ! :)

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rain.gif

Just 5-10 inches of rain for most of WNC the next 10 days...

lol we really need to dry out here. The ground is so saturated. Oh well will be great for spring and garden time. Also looking at the telleconnections has anyone looked at the dive the AO looks to take! Wow bi polar for sure. A hint of a negative nao and don't look know but the pna keeps pushing higher and higher each day. Mid month on look very interesting if things do not break down.
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