GaWx Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 I will preface this by saying that I could totally be wrong, but here's why I think we'd see more snow. We have a lot of winter storms due to CAD. Without it, we may very well have less winter weather overall. Outside of the NW zones, very often winter storms result in zr, ip, and rn in addition to snow (and even the NW zones mix sometimes). CAD can and does provide a roadblock of sorts to storms trying to track west of the Apps, up the Apps, or through the Piedmont. The result is often Miller Bs or something along those lines. Without the mountains and CAD, we would probably end up with more storms tracking west of us or over us. But it's likely that the NW portion of the storm would be more likely to be snow than such wide areas of mixing or ice. Also, clippers would be a lot more effective at producing snow here. Additionally, in situations where we're waiting on cold to catch the moisture to turn us over from rain to snow, it wouldn't get hung up on the mountains and would actually filter in in time to see the rain change to snow much more often. We may end up not getting lots of snow from clippers or from rain changing to snow events, but it would probably be more than what we'd lose from the snow we currently get from CAD-induced mixy winter storms. As for instances where you have a low pressure tracking south of you and high pressure to the north, you might actually see more situations where you have snow, as cold air would probably have an easier time getting drawn south (or filtering south) ahead of and into the storm. The same situation now, might result in a good low track but the cold not able to make it over the mountains in time. So my guess is, we'd lose some snow due to lack of CAD. We'd see less overall winter storms. We'd see less mix/ice. But what we lose with mixy CAD storms, we'd make up for (and then some) with clippers, cold chasing moisture systems, and possibly even better production from lows tracking to our south that are marginal or slightly too warm today. That's my rationale, which I fully admit, might be in error. The situation we just experienced is a relative rare one that may have allowed ZR/IP in ATL and more precip (less drying up by the ridge). However, the 850's quite possibly would have been hardly affected since it is the shallow air mainly below ~3K ft elevation that is blocked in these rare shallow cold front situations. So, I doubt there would have been snow behind the front, regardless. Clippers would probably still not be a big deal in ATL imo. They wouldn't dry up as much but they probably still wouldn't be all that moist coming from the dry NW direction and it probably wouldn't be that much colder in clipper situations since those aren't shallow cold front setups. Overall for ATL-AHN, CAD rules and leads to much more wintry wx than the mtns block imo. Snow, itself, could perhaps be near a wash..who knows? I assume that the cold from CAD will occasionally lead to more snow than we'd otherwise have due to colder lower levels preventing melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 That's the right idea right there!Can't we just make the mtns one big lake!? We would be awesome then! 100+ inch seasons for everyone! I would take that and sacrifice the wedge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knee deep to a grasshopper Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 That's the right idea right there! What do you think our winter weather would be if the earth rotated the opposite direction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Apps. Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Wonder what it was like during The Little Ice Age - roughly 1550-1850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 What do you think our winter weather would be if the earth rotated the opposite direction?The toilet would flush in the reverse spiral fashion! One of the biggest reasons I've wanted to visit south of the equator! I want to experience a cold SW wind , once in my life and see a typhoon spin clockwise! #NERD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 What do you think our winter weather would be if the earth rotated the opposite direction? Snowfall would still be below climo here because we'd still be between GSO and PGV. On the upshot, hurricanes wouldn't have to deal with Saharan dust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 The situation we just experienced is a relative rare one that may have allowed ZR/IP in ATL and more precip (less drying up by the ridge). However, the 850's quite possibly would have been hardly affected since it is the shallow air mainly below ~3K ft elevation that is blocked in these rare shallow cold front situations. So, I doubt there would have been snow behind the front, regardless. Clippers would probably still not be a big deal in ATL imo. They wouldn't dry up as much but they probably still wouldn't be all that moist coming from the dry NW direction and it probably wouldn't be that much colder in clipper situations since those aren't shallow cold front setups. Overall for ATL-AHN, CAD rules and leads to much more wintry wx than the mtns block imo. Snow, itself, could perhaps be near a wash..who knows? I assume that the cold from CAD will occasionally lead to more snow than we'd otherwise have due to colder lower levels preventing melting. I admit, I'm a little NC biased when it comes to clippers. I think we'd do a lot better than we do now. But for all of us, I wonder if it would tell us anything if we looked at locations at similar latitudes west of the Apps? Maybe not. Question for ya though: If the mountains were not there, why would it be any less cold, if you have a high pressure zone anchored north of us? The mountains dam up the air, so I can see how that helps when high pressure leaves. But as long as hp is in a good spot, we'd still get cold enough for winter storms, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 I admit, I'm a little NC biased when it comes to clippers. I think we'd do a lot better than we do now. But for all of us, I wonder if it would tell us anything if we looked at locations at similar latitudes west of the Apps? Maybe not. Question for ya though: If the mountains were not there, why would it be any less cold, if you have a high pressure zone anchored north of us? The mountains dam up the air, so I can see how that helps when high pressure leaves. But as long as hp is in a good spot, we'd still get cold enough for winter storms, right? With no CAD and despite the high, I think that there'd often be more veering of winds away from NE and E to a warmer SE from the warmer Atlantic as a low forms and moves ENE or E in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 What do you think our winter weather would be if the earth rotated the opposite direction? We'd probably be warmer in the winter and colder in the summer with the ocean moderating things. Probably not a good thing. I like turning WV and TN into a lake and bulldozing the mountains. NW flow LE snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Apps. Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 We'd probably be warmer in the winter and colder in the summer with the ocean moderating things. Probably not a good thing. I like turning WV and TN into a lake and bulldozing the mountains. NW flow LE snow!!! The coal industry is doing its best to bulldoze the mountains of Kentucky and West Virginia. Maybe they will just keep going below sea level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 The latest weeklies look cold for week 3 and 4 for much of the SE. I think that is when the PNA and EPO reloads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 The latest weeklies look cold for week 3 and 4 for much of the SE. I think that is when the PNA and EPO reloads. The latest EPS puts the east in the freezer again after the 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Lol at the blocking on the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 The latest EPS puts the east in the freezer again after the 18th. Late Mega Magnificent March... 1981/1983/1987 repeat incoming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 My God. I ventured in here hoping to find a bunch of folks happily talking about the spring weather pattern coming up and stumble into this de-evolution. (Quietly steps out) See you guys for the severe threads. Dont hurt each other. not yet when there is still snow possibilities. maybe I'll be with ya around april 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 anyone seeing any juicy clown maps yet for snow around the 20 - 24 range I keep hearing about this time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 The latest EPS puts the east in the freezer again after the 18th. Thanks for the info pack and franklin. I do not have access to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Ensemble member 9 of the EPS gives most of the SE 10+ inches between D10 and D12... ATL gets like 15 inches. Obviously a drunk one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Suddenly the Euro weeklies that some people bashed when they showed no winter weather are now being trotted out as evidence of blocking and cold coming by the same folks who said they were garbage when they didn't show blocking o cold. Talk about a mental disorder. All hail King Euro, it is a great model but jeezz guys bi polar much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 6, 2015 Author Share Posted March 6, 2015 fwiw-- JB says he still thinks it snows in Atlanta before it's all said and done. don't fall for the false spring next week...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Suddenly the Euro weeklies that some people bashed when they showed no winter weather are now being trotted out as evidence of blocking and cold coming by the same folks who said they were garbage when they didn't show blocking o cold. Talk about a mental disorder. All hail King Euro, it is a great model but jeezz guys bi polar much? Too early for the bourbon man.It is Friday and all, but still.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 fwiw-- JB says he still thinks it snows in Atlanta before it's all said and done. don't fall for the false spring next week...... I probably look ignorant for asking this, but do you mean Joe Bastardi or J Burns? Or someone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 I probably look ignorant for asking this, but do you mean Joe Bastardi or J Burns? Or someone else? He means Bastardi, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Suddenly the Euro weeklies that some people bashed when they showed no winter weather are now being trotted out as evidence of blocking and cold coming by the same folks who said they were garbage when they didn't show blocking o cold. Talk about a mental disorder. All hail King Euro, it is a great model but jeezz guys bi polar much?Is that being stated towards me? I think the weeklies were a bit off early in the season then got better as we progressed towards a more stable EPO pattern. Also the euro has had some big busts this winter as every other model. I like the look of the weeklies because there is building consensus of the epo rebuilding and the pna spiking again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 6, 2015 Author Share Posted March 6, 2015 I probably look ignorant for asking this, but do you mean Joe Bastardi or J Burns? Or someone else? Yes, Joe Bastardi, J Burns probably thinks that too!! Right JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Looking at the ensembles some more....would be surprising if we don't see something in March. Atleast west of 85 and especially the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 6, 2015 Author Share Posted March 6, 2015 Is that being stated towards me? I think the weeklies were a bit off early in the season then got better as we progressed towards a more stable EPO pattern. Also the euro has had some big busts this winter as every other model. I like the look of the weeklies because there is building consensus of the epo rebuilding and the pna spiking again. Good post, The Euro has busted a lot here.... But like you said it's weeklies looks more realistic now than all winter from the Videos and post I've been reading from JB and others... He said if the NAO can go Negative look out...And he thinks it will, but no guarantee. March 20 thru April10 is target range....We will probably have -EPO, and a +PNA (If we can get the Neg. NAO)? It could be party time especially in the Mountains and maybe lower elevations? I think THE KING has predicted over 60 inches of snow for me so far this season, I have had 13 inches... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Good post, The Euro has busted a lot here.... But like you said it's weeklies looks more realistic now than all winter from the Videos and post I've been reading from JB and others... He said if the NAO can go Negative look out...And he thinks it will, but no guarantee. March 20 thru April10 is target range....We will probably have -EPO, and a +PNA (If we can get the Neg. NAO)? It could be party time especially in the Mountains and maybe lower elevations? I think THE KING has predicted over 60 inches of snow for me so far this season, I have had 13 inches... lollol yeah not the winter most thought nor what I thought. Yeah I'm not sold on the nao but there are hints of it in the mid range. I do like the pattern going forward from mid month on towards April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 Yes, Joe Bastardi, J Burns probably thinks that too!! Right JB Not by a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 7, 2015 Share Posted March 7, 2015 lol yeah not the winter most thought nor what I thought. Yeah I'm not sold on the nao but there are hints of it in the mid range. I do like the pattern going forward from mid month on towards April.hopefully we can end this winter with a big storm we all look back and remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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