franklin NCwx Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Eps has a +PNA -epo and tries to build heights over Eastern Canada/Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Eps has a +PNA -epo and tries to build heights over Eastern Canada/Greenland. Normally, I wouldn't pay much attention to late March, but with the -EPO, the cold air source for the SE should be charged, and if we do get the +PNA and some sort of blocking (which I wouldn't hold my breath for), we could squeak something in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Eps has a +PNA -epo and tries to build heights over Eastern Canada/Greenland.Yeah I like the mid to long range look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 why is it so many times or at least most of the time its cold chasing moisture? why can't it be the other way around at least half of the time? its like 90% of the time the cold is chasing the moisture and we lose out, even if the cold would get here and change the rain to snow for half of the event would be great, but it just hardly ever happens. yesterday the cold air took so long to get here was unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 why is it so many times or at least most of the time its cold chasing moisture? why can't it be the other way around at least half of the time? its like 90% of the time the cold is chasing the moisture and we lose out, even if the cold would get here and change the rain to snow for half of the event would be great, but it just hardly ever happens. yesterday the cold air took so long to get here was unreal. The problem with most cold chasing moisture scenarios here is the mountains. You want an arctic boundary to move through and slow down or stall out, and then have a wave of low pressure to form along the front after the cold air is entrenched. This actually happened this time, except it happened too far north for our area. This used to happen much more frequently than it does now. Now, fronts just blast through with rain, followed by cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 why is it so many times or at least most of the time its cold chasing moisture? why can't it be the other way around at least half of the time? its like 90% of the time the cold is chasing the moisture and we lose out, even if the cold would get here and change the rain to snow for half of the event would be great, but it just hardly ever happens. yesterday the cold air took so long to get here was unreal. I like to blame the mountains. I sometimes wonder how our winter weather would be different if we didn't have the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 I like to blame the mountains. I sometimes wonder how our winter weather would be different if we didn't have the mountains. There'd essentially be no CAD. It is both a positive and negative though I think CAD easily outweighs the negative aspects for those in the CAD regions like here in the ATL area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 There'd essentially be no CAD. It is both a positive and negative though I think CAD easily outweighs the negative aspects for those in the CAD regions like here in the ATL area. Yes, I rely on CAD for much of my cold air! This morning though, we had a WAD instead of a CAD! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 I'd be willing to bet we'd have more snow without the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 I'd be willing to bet we'd have more snow without the mountains. I guess we might since we'd have more of a shot at clipper love, but I'm not so sure. We'd certainly have less ice, though. Without the mountains, we might see more inland runners, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WCWEATHER Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 How long are we talking for the mountains to fall apart and degrade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 I'd be willing to bet we'd have more snow without the mountains. I dunno, more clippers but no function to hold cold air in. I think we'd do significantly worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 I'd be willing to bet we'd have more snow without the mountains. It's interesting to change a basic parameter and then try and figure out the effect. A few of my old favorites: Water freezes at 40ºF Moon 25% closer to earth Earth rotates every 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Heck, the mountains hardly ever help me anyway this far west. Maybe if the mountains weren't there I would have gotten snow this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 It's interesting to change a basic parameter and then try and figure out the effect. A few of my old favorites: Water freezes at 40ºF Moon 25% closer to earth Earth rotates every 48 hours Rush hour staggers from 4-6 pm everyday. That way we prevent gridlock! And take away daylight saving time! I like being dark by 6pm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 It's interesting to change a basic parameter and then try and figure out the effect. A few of my old favorites: Water freezes at 40ºF Moon 25% closer to earth Earth rotates every 48 hours We would all stay at 41 and rain then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 I like to blame the mountains. I sometimes wonder how our winter weather would be different if we didn't have the mountains. Positive and negative aspects. There wouldn't be CAD events but arctic air intrusions coming down like we this winter would have surged in more stout. On other aspects, probably would some of the more robust lake effect snow bands travel down south from the Great Lakes given the proper setup. Another aspect during severe season, would see more robust outbreaks too i believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Positive and negative aspects. There wouldn't be CAD events but arctic air intrusions coming down like we this winter would have surged in more stout. On other aspects, probably would some of the more robust lake effect snow bands travel down south from the Great Lakes given the proper setup. Another aspect during severe season, would see more robust outbreaks too i believe. On the last point: I agree. I look at fewer robust severe outbreaks as a positive. I'm not a fan of severe weather IMBY where it can cause casualties and damage my property. I know... not wanting that that may seem weird to some here. (I don't know about you, personally). To each his/her own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 I will preface this by saying that I could totally be wrong, but here's why I think we'd see more snow. We have a lot of winter storms due to CAD. Without it, we may very well have less winter weather overall. Outside of the NW zones, very often winter storms result in zr, ip, and rn in addition to snow (and even the NW zones mix sometimes). CAD can and does provide a roadblock of sorts to storms trying to track west of the Apps, up the Apps, or through the Piedmont. The result is often Miller Bs or something along those lines. Without the mountains and CAD, we would probably end up with more storms tracking west of us or over us. But it's likely that the NW portion of the storm would be more likely to be snow than such wide areas of mixing or ice. Also, clippers would be a lot more effective at producing snow here. Additionally, in situations where we're waiting on cold to catch the moisture to turn us over from rain to snow, it wouldn't get hung up on the mountains and would actually filter in in time to see the rain change to snow much more often. We may end up not getting lots of snow from clippers or from rain changing to snow events, but it would probably be more than what we'd lose from the snow we currently get from CAD-induced mixy winter storms. As for instances where you have a low pressure tracking south of you and high pressure to the north, you might actually see more situations where you have snow, as cold air would probably have an easier time getting drawn south (or filtering south) ahead of and into the storm. The same situation now, might result in a good low track but the cold not able to make it over the mountains in time. So my guess is, we'd lose some snow due to lack of CAD. We'd see less overall winter storms. We'd see less mix/ice. But what we lose with mixy CAD storms, we'd make up for (and then some) with clippers, cold chasing moisture systems, and possibly even better production from lows tracking to our south that are marginal or slightly too warm today. That's my rationale, which I fully admit, might be in error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 My God. I ventured in here hoping to find a bunch of folks happily talking about the spring weather pattern coming up and stumble into this de-evolution. (Quietly steps out) See you guys for the severe threads. Dont hurt each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 My God. I ventured in here hoping to find a bunch of folks happily talking about the spring weather pattern coming up and stumble into this de-evolution. (Quietly steps out) See you guys for the severe threads. Dont hurt each other. Don't be so dramatic. Here you go: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobNC Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Here's another what-if: Suppose the ocean currents were reversed and we had a backwards Gulf Stream constantly funneling arctic maritime air into NC. And, for that matter, the entire weather system would be reversed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 My God. I ventured in here hoping to find a bunch of folks happily talking about the spring weather pattern coming up and stumble into this de-evolution. (Quietly steps out) See you guys for the severe threads. Dont hurt each other. Our high for the next 7 days is 57. What is this Spring you speak of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Just a response to CR's thesis statement above, alot of comments I agree with, but the clippers giving us more snow, I have to disagree on. It doesn't matter if you move the mountains, the clippers do not get far enough south to give SC any love, 99 out of 100 times. And I'd rather take my chances with damming and get the ice, than to not have them. We get screwed out of some events, but the damming is a cool phenomenon that very few in the country get to experience . Plus, every once in awhile, the wedge gives us a break from the scorching summer heat! I say keep the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Just a response to CR's thesis statement above, alot of comments I agree with, but the clippers giving us more snow, I have to disagree on. It doesn't matter if you move the mountains, the clippers do not get far enough south to give SC any love, 99 out of 100 times. And I'd rather take my chances with damming and get the ice, than to not have them. We get screwed out of some events, but the damming is a cool phenomenon that very few in the country get to experience . Plus, every once in awhile, the wedge gives us a break from the scorching summer heat! I say keep the mountains I agree! Keep the mountains . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 The mountains in their own way add their own block for us sometimes. Had the mountains not been their this time, the cold may have just scooted out to sea. The mountains did help to contain it somewhat, even if they do screw me sometimes. It's a love/hate thing. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 It's interesting to change a basic parameter and then try and figure out the effect. A few of my old favorites: Water freezes at 40ºF Moon 25% closer to earth Earth rotates every 48 hours I always wanted West Virginia to be a Great Lake. Think about all of that LES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 I always wanted West Virginia to be a Great Lake. Think about all of that LES! That's the right idea right there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Back on topic for kvegas, neither the latest GFS nor Euro show anything resembling winter weather for the SE. However, a wet pattern looks to be shaping up. The GFS drops copious rainfall along the southern tier and SE through its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Back on topic for kvegas, neither the latest GFS nor Euro show anything resembling winter weather for the SE. However, a wet pattern looks to be shaping up. The GFS drops copious rainfall along the southern tier and SE through its run.awesome! From cold rain to chilly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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