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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread III


BIG FROSTY

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James Spann just tweeted this out:

GFS continues to show potential high winter impact Wed/Thurs

 

 Yeah, AL has always been at much higher risk for something big vs. the bulk of N GA including ATL-AHN. Nothing new there. With nearly 100% confidence, I still say ATL-AHN will be on the outside of this one other than the possibility of something very minor (much less than they got from the various wintry events in late Feb). Could much of that corridor be done with sig. wintry threats for the season? Quite possibly but models can see only so far into the future and the weak Nino says to be wary just in case.

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Looks like it depends on when the cold air and the precip arrives here. If it is colder than modeled, or the precip arrives later, it could be a little surprise.

 

We know how these things always turn out, though.  I'd be mildly surprised if we even ended with anything but rain at this point.  Of course, I hope I am incorrect.

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My thoughts remain the same w.r.t Wed pm/Thursday. Rain changing to snow/sleet then snow. Biggest accumulations likely over TN/KY/WV


 



Some light accumulation over NW Ga, E TN, N and NE NC. Moderate accumulations in VA.


 



For RDU, rain changing to wintry mix by late morning. Ending as snow by mid to late afternoon Thursday. Light accumulation possible


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The Euro continues to troll N NC with this Thursday system.  Argh.

 

Your a subtle shift south or even just temps being 2-3F to warm for even a bigger snow/ice event.  As of now the Euro is showing 3" for your area. 

 

Personally I am hoping for just rain, so done with the kids missing school.  It does look like a major winter event though.

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Yeah the models are sticking a fork in the Thurs chances of anything decent.....time to start looking for the first Mod threat in the SE

  Yep, these situations never work out for us east of the mountains. The mountains always block the low-level cold air. That's why we have so many Cad events. Only this time the cold air is on the wrong side of the mountains. There has to be a wave riding up the front at exactly the right time and that is very, very, rare. We could see precipitation ending as some scattered flurries or sleet pellets but that's about all I am expecting at this point.

  Now, having said that.... If we see the front take on more of an east-west orientation then it will improve our chances. However, the models seem to be trending away from that scenario at this time. Our fate will be sealed if the models don't show something worth hanging on to with tonight's runs.

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Anyone with Euro access want to discuss what it's doing in the Gulf at D10?  Looks like a landfalling tropical system or something, LOL.  It moves due north headed for Louisiana. :lol:

 

It's also on the GFS. I love how that low just knocks the HP out in to the Atlantic :D

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