DopplerWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 ive heard it mentioned that those eurowx maps tend to underdo snowfall while wxbell tends to overdo it. still an event showing up nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Im focusing my job search on TN and MI, and AL. This state sucks for winter weather lolIf by MI, you mean Michigan, that's an easy choice. If you meant Mississippi , your 0-3 , they all suck and I would just stick with CLT!On topic, that snow map the GFS just spot out, I'm going to Roxboro and visit my sister! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Well I usually only fire the bus up if I feel its a sure thing. But what the heck, if it crashes and burns Ill get another next season. It's ready to roll for Thursday's event, who's on board? I'm out of bus tickets ! I used my last one last week, and it ended in a fiery inferno! I'm ready for spring, and have crap to plant, you may be the only one on this bus, but you NC boys will probly be good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase2211 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 All aboard Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I would caution anyone at this point of buying to hard on the GFS snow maps lol....or the Euro for that matter. Right now the key is the setup....WPC latest says it best but overall the look is pretty good I think for NC to at least see some winter weather how much is still a huge ? EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1100 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2015VALID 12Z WED MAR 04 2015 - 12Z SUN MAR 08 2015 OVER THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER 48---THE DAY 3 EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN LONG-WAVE TROUGH AND ST LAWRENCEVALLEY CYCLONE MIGRATION---CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF GENERATINGAN 'ANA-TYPE' FRONTAL STRUCTURE FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THECAROLINAS (AND THE I-10 TO I-20 CORRIDOR FOR A TIME)...WITH THELEADING EDGE OF THE CANADIAN AIRMASS SPREADING OUT AND'UNDERGLIDING'---TAKING PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JETSUPPORT (AROUND THE 5/12Z TIME FRAME). THE DETERMINISTICGFS...CANADIAN AND ECMWF EXIT THE UPPER-LEVEL JET AXIS BETWEENCAPE HATTERAS AND CAPE MAY BY 7/00Z. HOWEVER...THERE IS JUSTENOUGH LATITUDE DIFFERENCE IN THE JET-LEVEL WINDFORECASTS---BETWEEN THESE 3 DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS---TO CREATEUNCERTAINTY ON DAY 6 ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ACROSS THESOUTHEAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 If by MI, you mean Michigan, that's an easy choice. If you meant Mississippi , your 0-3 , they all suck and I would just stick with CLT! On topic, that snow map the GFS just spot out, I'm going to Roxboro and visit my sister! Let's do Twin Tops... then some burn outs in the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 . Looks good for us, but I'll believe it Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 If by MI, you mean Michigan, that's an easy choice. If you meant Mississippi , your 0-3 , they all suck and I would just stick with CLT! On topic, that snow map the GFS just spot out, I'm going to Roxboro and visit my sister! . Come on up. We still have snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 This isn't correct there will be plenty of cold air east of the MTS even in N GA, again it depends on when and where...this could be a much longer duration event than what the models hint at a stalled/washed out frontal boundry with a strong cold arctic high pumping into the back of it with a overrunning STJ could be a really insane thing see much less in March This 2M shot is insane for March on the snow cover in NC that's a 3 at RDU and 7 here WTF...also if that snow map comes true I would be insanely happy I think that a better way to say it is that I think that the mountains to the NW will make it such that once the cold air really gets into ATL that the precip. will be limited...more like the 0.01" qpf /very limited 12Z Euro wintry precip. than the 8-10 hour long 0.25" wintry qpf 12Z GFS, which in itself would be a significant event and the biggest of the season for many. What helps is to be familiar with one's own local terrain/climo in this kind of situation and to be able to recall past similar situations for the area though this is a bit unique/uncommon. I'm definitely incorporating this in my thoughts. The 12Z Euro agrees. I think it would take something like a new low to form over the E GoM. something I'm not currently expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I'm out of bus tickets ! I used my last one last week, and it ended in a fiery inferno! I'm ready for spring, and have crap to plant, you may be the only one on this bus, but you NC boys will probly be good!Mack you got on one of those short yellow buses at your bus stop instead that big nice new yellow one I was driving. Pack even got on, even though it had the "who needs a negative nao/ ao pattern school district" painted on the side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I think that a better way to say it is that I think that the mountains to the NW will make it such that once the cold air really gets into ATL that the precip. will be limited...more like the 0.01" qpf /very limited 12Z Euro wintry precip. than the 8-10 hour long 0.25" wintry qpf 12Z GFS, which in itself would be a significant event and the biggest of the season for many. What helps is to be familiar with one's own local terrain/climo in this kind of situation and to be able to recall past similar situations for the area. I'm definitely incorporating this in my thoughts. I think it would take something like a new low to form over the E GoM. something I'm not currently expecting. yeah your best hope is a setup where the cold filters in with lots of overrunning moisture provided by the STJ cutting up the east coast over the cold for a extended period of time....the bust potential is high here even after onset as QPF totals will be hard to nail down and areas expecting more could get less and vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 TUESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...AND WITHINCREASING SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF IT...THE CAD SHOULD SCOUR OUTWITH TEMPS TUE NIGHT ACTUALLY RISING THRU THE NIGHT WITH VIGOROUSWAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN FACT...BY- OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISEWED...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA. WITH FROPADURING THE AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE TEMPS RISE WELL INTO THE 60SDURING THE MORNING...PERHAPS BREAKING THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS OURSE ZONES. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...LOOK FOR POPS TO INCREASE FROM NW TOSE THRU THE DAY WED...WHILE IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THEPRECIP WILL BE FOUND RIGHT ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICHWILL LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY ASMIDLEVEL FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...AND A STEADY FETCH OFDEEP MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED OVERTOP A COOLING POST-FRONTAL LOWLEVEL AIRMASS. SPEAKING OF THE COOLING LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...LOW LEVELTHICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...FROM~1380M 00Z THU TO ~1265M BY 10Z THU. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTSTEMPS MAY HOLD IN THE 20S DURING THE DAY THU! GIVEN THEAFOREMENTIONED LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME...ASSUMING THIS MODELSOLUTION HOLDS...ITS BEGINNING TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE LIKELY THAT WEMAY BE DEALING WITH SOME SORT OF WINTER P-TYPE EVENT DURING THEDAYTIME THURSDAY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH...AS QPF PROGS STILLVARY QUITE A BIT...WITH GFS QPF ROUGHLY TWICE AS MUCH AS THE ECMWFDURING THE 12Z THU TO 00Z FRI PERIOD. PLEASE STAY TUNED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Larry, I believe the ice in 1994 bled over from the northwest but it took forever to get here. We did end up with a good glaze but not the catastrophic storm in TN and AL. Probably not the same setup but it's the only ice I remember from a non CAD setup. That storm was the best sledding I've ever had. We had a solid 1/4" on the pavement with a little snow on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Larry, I believe the ice in 1994 bled over from the northwest but it took forever to get here. We did end up with a good glaze but not the catastrophic storm in TN and AL. Probably not the same setup but it's the only ice I remember from a non CAD setup. That storm was the best sledding I've ever had. We had a solid 1/4" on the pavement with a little snow on top. Exactly when in 1994 was this event? I want to look at it more closely. Thanks in advance. If you don't know the exact date, do you recall it it was in, say, early Jan, mid Jan, late Jan, early Feb, other etc.? Edit: I think I may have found it. Somewhere near 2/11/1994? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Exactly when in 1994 was this event? I want to look at it more closely. Thanks in advance. If you don't know the exact date, do you recall it it was in, say, early Jan, mid Jan, late Jan, early Feb, other etc.? Edit: I think I may have found it. Somewhere near 2/11/1994? Yep that's it. It hit parts of Miss, TN, and AL very hard. The Carolinas were hit too when CAD came in from VIrginia, but nothing like what happened back to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Let's do Twin Tops... then some burn outs in the snow Was just there last night!!! Got the all u can eat #1and it was pure awesomeness !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Yep that's it. It hit parts of Miss, TN, and AL very hard. The Carolinas were hit too when CAD came in from VIrginia, but nothing like what happened back to the west.What were the temps and how strong was this cold air in 94 when compared to this one? If it's showing enough cold for all that frozen In NC, maybe it will be stronger and the models are undersestimating the cold air. I think I saw a low of 2 for AL somewhere Fri morning?!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Just came across this... WRAL Mike Maze 3 hrs · Okay who is weather weary yet? I know I am. I was hoping this past week was the end of the wintry weather but nope! Today's freezing rain aside, we are watching for more snow and ice Thursday that has the potential to shut things down again. SIGH!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I think that a better way to say it is that I think that the mountains to the NW will make it such that once the cold air really gets into ATL that the precip. will be limited...more like the 0.01" qpf /very limited 12Z Euro wintry precip. than the 8-10 hour long 0.25" wintry qpf 12Z GFS, which in itself would be a significant event and the biggest of the season for many. What helps is to be familiar with one's own local terrain/climo in this kind of situation and to be able to recall past similar situations for the area though this is a bit unique/uncommon. I'm definitely incorporating this in my thoughts. The 12Z Euro agrees. I think it would take something like a new low to form over the E GoM. something I'm not currently expecting. Larry - I completely agree with your assessment of the upcoming event....I think I can remember one time in the last 20 yrs. or so when we had a situation with post frontal moisture like this and cold air "rushing" in......I think it resulted in about 20 minutes of sleet/snow, and then starry skies within the hour. Although like you said nothing is impossible, without a secondary wave of low pressure forming in the gulf it's not gonna happen here east of the mountains. - Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Yep that's it. It hit parts of Miss, TN, and AL very hard. The Carolinas were hit too when CAD came in from VIrginia, but nothing like what happened back to the west.It was '94. I lived in MS at the time....you want nothing like that.http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/?n=1994_deltaicestorm-pictures http://www.nwas.org/digest/papers/1996/Vol20No3/Pg15-Pfost.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 It was '94. I lived in MS at the time....you want nothing like that. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/?n=1994_deltaicestorm-pictures http://www.nwas.org/digest/papers/1996/Vol20No3/Pg15-Pfost.pdf Yeah i know. Dec 2002 was more than bad enough here and of course that was NOTHING like the 1994 storm back in MS and AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Looks like parts of the SE and Mid-South are going to see more wintry weather this week. My thoughts on that, plus a little model watching. Check out the video for more. Thanks everyone! -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 What were the temps and how strong was this cold air in 94 when compared to this one? If it's showing enough cold for all that frozen In NC, maybe it will be stronger and the models are undersestimating the cold air. I think I saw a low of 2 for AL somewhere Fri morning?!! Here in our area, rain turned to freezing rain around 6-7 pm that Thursday and continued through the night. Temps got back to around 32-33 around 9 am on Friday and stayed there until late afternoon when they warmed up to around 36-37. All ice had melted by nightfall, at least here in Jonesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Looks like parts of the SE and Mid-South are going to see more wintry weather this week. My thoughts on that, plus a little model watching. Check out the video for more. Thanks everyone! -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Good overview.... and to prove I actually did watch it --- I caught your correction on "South Little Rock" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Like I opined earlier this week. Snow and ice chances are done in GA south of I-20. This "event" folks are looking at has its target on other states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 18z is a sleetfest for much of nc. meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 18Z has much less wintry for the ATL area vs the 12Z GFS. I think that the 18Z will verify better there than the 12Z fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 18z is a sleetfest for much of nc. meh. Finally the GFS backs off from it's silly solution...0.03" of snow this run, pretty big change. The timing isn't that ideal either. This also isn't a rain/snow soultion so I hate the fact that we could get a ZR/sleetfest. It would be a nuisance more than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 That double barreled high as modeled means business(1st pic). To get enough moisture we need a nice fetch in the southern branch or a more developed slp. Not seeing much of either really (2nd pic). At least it ought to dry out once that monster hp gets in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Good overview.... and to prove I actually did watch it --- I caught your correction on "South Little Rock" Lol. Thank you! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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