superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Speaking of the ukmet, what did it look like at 12z? I've divorced the euro and now I'm hitched to the ukmet in holy weather matrimony, until a bust do us apart. The UKMET looked like a common cold front with zero threat of ice or snow for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The UKMET looked like a common cold front with zero threat of ice or snow for anyone. Thanks james. So basically its the GFS selling images down on the street corner to any sucker who will buy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Folks, It's March. I'm sure you will spout climo is meaningless in situations like this but I went and chopped some wood today in a sweatshirt and it was 34 degrees. Yes 34...and you know what, with the sun out (I was in the shade btw) I never ever felt cold. I even paused before and after the effort thinking it's has got to be in the mid-high 40s out here. Nonetheless when I checked the reading it was 34. I am skeptical on the March 5-6 event for the Raleigh area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 This kind of setup where the southeast ridge flexes just enough favors ark-ms-tn-al, these situations rarely work for atl eastward because the nw flow is just not great and the cold can't come over mtns fast enough, so upstate sc I can't see anything for you at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Folks, It's March. I'm sure you will spout climo is meaningless in situations like this but I went and chopped some wood today in a sweatshirt and it was 34 degrees. Yes 34...and you know what, with the sun out (I was in the shade btw) I never ever felt cold. I even paused before and after the effort thinking it's has got to be in the mid-high 40s out here. Nonetheless when I checked the reading it was 34. I am skeptical on the March 5-6 event for the Raleigh area. Meh, I got a major sleet/ice storm on March 6th-7th just last year. It can happen. The first week of March is a stacked climo period. Thanks james. So basically its the GFS selling images down on the street corner to any sucker who will buy. Perhaps, though the Euro showed us a little love, too, so who knows? I do not expect anything nor would I forecast anything for Thursday at this point, but it's possible. The GGEM was close, but a little too far north with the front for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 That low near Savannah is limiting GA/SC's cold air (I think). Hopefully that can be modified for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 This kind of setup where the southeast ridge flexes just enough favors ark-ms-tn-al, these situations rarely work for atl eastward because the nw flow is just not great and the cold can't come over mtns fast enough, so upstate sc I can't see anything for you at all Yeah, I am going to have to move to Mississippi to see snow again; who knew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The GGEM looked a lot better for N NC tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 BTW, NC got DGEX'd tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 The 00z Euro just delivered the snowy goods. Maybe this actually has a shot at happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Yeah, I am going to have to move to Mississippi to see snow again; who knew? the mtns are just so good at blocking the cold, marginal event is likely at its best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 BTW, NC got DGEX'd tonight. Mississippi SUCKS If it dont work out here, snowchase time! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 1, 2015 Author Share Posted March 1, 2015 Wxrisk.com 18 mins · ***ALERT *** ACCUMULATING SNOWSTORM THREAT MARCH 5.. FOR THE LOWER MIDDLE ATLANTIC ... MARCH 5 not sunday !!! MARCH 5 NOT sunday MD DEL VA WVA and POSSIBLY Northern NC ..southeast Third KYwestern/ central TN ... There is going to be a 1 DAY WARM UP .. . Wednesday MARCH 4 Up and down the East coast. 60s are likely over the Lower Middle Atlantic... 40s / 50s into Northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England (Philly to NJ to NYC to CT to se Mass). a new STRONG Arctic cold front will arrive from the Midwest Wednesday night / Thursday Am. The front will Slow down as it reaches Northern GA SC NC. The 12z SATURDAY GFS Model shows a 2ND round of precip move up the front into TN WVA VA MD DEL after reaches NC. This results in SEVERAL inches of snow over central / eastern TN central/ southern WVA much of VA MD DEL . But the GFS Model was " alone" in forecasting this. New DATA here early Sunday AM from the Canadian and new European Models now strongly support the GFS idea of snowstorm with significant accumulations ( for early March) for TN WVA VA MD DEL and possibly Northern NC All that being said there are still a lot of questions here. For example one LEY question is ... how much precipitation comes in behind the front once temperatures turn cold on Thursday morning? Another uncertainty Hass to do with how long does this precipitation last? Right now most of the models are showing the significant precipitation behind the front if in the cold air which is what produces the snow . But this is not at all certain. There does not appear to be a significant surface area of low pressure. This is simply a slow moving front with the Jetstream driving moisture in behind the front. it is possible that the cold front could stall further to the north which would shift the heaviest snows over Northern West Virginia Washington Baltimore Maryland Pennsylvania and New Jersey. All those questions aside... Right now the model data does support the idea of another significant accumulating snow fall over the lower Middle Atlantic region as well as southeastern half of Kentucky and much of Tennessee MARCH 5. See More Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Yep, that's a ZR/SN event for ATL verbatim. Considering how...bad...the GFS has been the last two events, I'll wait until this shows up on the RGEM, UKMET, and the NAM before I start sounding the alarm. I do like the GFS's consistency on this idea, though. The 0Z GFS has extremely light wintry precip. at most for ATL verbatim on 3/5. I continue to expect this to be minor at worst in ATL based on history. Once the below 32 air finally gets over the mountains to the W/NW, I expect the precip. to either be gone or just about to end. Besides slowing the cold air down, the mountains have a drying effect. ATL hardly ever scores anything of significance in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Wxrisk.com 18 mins · ***ALERT *** ACCUMULATING SNOWSTORM THREAT MARCH 5.. FOR THE LOWER MIDDLE ATLANTIC ... MARCH 5 not sunday !!! MARCH 5 NOT sunday MD DEL VA WVA and POSSIBLY Northern NC .. southeast Third KY western/ central TN ... There is going to be a 1 DAY WARM UP .. . Wednesday MARCH 4 Up and down the East coast. 60s are likely over the Lower Middle Atlantic... 40s / 50s into Northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England (Philly to NJ to NYC to CT to se Mass). a new STRONG Arctic cold front will arrive from the Midwest Wednesday night / Thursday Am. The front will Slow down as it reaches Northern GA SC NC. The 12z SATURDAY GFS Model shows a 2ND round of precip move up the front into TN WVA VA MD DEL after reaches NC. This results in SEVERAL inches of snow over central / eastern TN central/ southern WVA much of VA MD DEL . But the GFS Model was " alone" in forecasting this. New DATA here early Sunday AM from the Canadian and new European Models now strongly support the GFS idea of snowstorm with significant accumulations ( for early March) for TN WVA VA MD DEL and possibly Northern NC All that being said there are still a lot of questions here. For example one LEY question is ... how much precipitation comes in behind the front once temperatures turn cold on Thursday morning? Another uncertainty Hass to do with how long does this precipitation last? Right now most of the models are showing the significant precipitation behind the front if in the cold air which is what produces the snow . But this is not at all certain. There does not appear to be a significant surface area of low pressure. This is simply a slow moving front with the Jetstream driving moisture in behind the front. it is possible that the cold front could stall further to the north which would shift the heaviest snows over Northern West Virginia Washington Baltimore Maryland Pennsylvania and New Jersey. All those questions aside... Right now the model data does support the idea of another significant accumulating snow fall over the lower Middle Atlantic region as well as southeastern half of Kentucky and much of Tennessee MARCH 5. See More lets shift this a little more to the southeast fellows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 surprised GSP isn't mentioning the possibility of snow for Thursday from what the models are showing and some of the mets on here are talking for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Really!...where are the bloody 70's I was promised. Going to call bull on this event, what a nutty setup the models are showing. Huge cold front that swings through with a wave rolling over it dropping a ton of snow. Oh yeah, I guess that's happened a coupe of times in the past couple of weeks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 lets shift this a little more to the southeast fellows. Bout 250 miles, so that more of the board can see some fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 surprised GSP isn't mentioning the possibility of snow for Thursday from what the models are showing and some of the mets on here are talking for Thursday.I'm not! Did you see what happened with the last event they busted on!? What could go wrong withe the Thursday set up, besides everything ! Cold air coming over the mountains to beat moisture or to join moisture that is coming, always works! Anybody around GSP expecting snow or ice from this setup, will be sorely dissapointed ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 GFS backs off while the Euro comes in with more snow. Guess the important thing is the models are still showing a storm. Just not feeling this one yet, but it looks like a different setup than we had with the last system. Crazy to think we could be close to 70 the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 for the SE, this a west of the Apps special (and they deserve it) - maybe some snow for NC - GA/SC are the losers here (I think I've heard Cessarich say the Apps/Blue Ridge "protect us" from events like this) I used to live in Memphis/Nashville and this set-up is a jackpot for TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 GFS backs off while the Euro comes in with more snow. Guess the important thing is the models are still showing a storm. Just not feeling this one yet, but it looks like a different setup than we had with the last system. Crazy to think we could be close to 70 the day before. It did... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 lets shift this a little more to the southeast fellows.I'm guessing you didn't see the rest of run. This is 18 hours later. EPS control is nearly identical to what the ECMWF is showing. GFS a little less bullish, but has sniffed this system out. CMC much further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 for the SE, this a west of the Apps special (and they deserve it) - maybe some snow for NC - GA/SC are the losers here (I think I've heard Cessarich say the Apps/Blue Ridge "protect us" from events like this) I used to live in Memphis/Nashville and this set-up is a jackpot for TN Our only hope is , the air gets over the mountains up North in like WV or VA, and wedges down to our area. It wouldn't hurt to slow or delay the wave development to allow more cold air to get out in front. Grasping at straws, but in the 80s and 90s , there were days when we started out in 50s and 60s in the morning and had freezing rain or sleet by the afternoon, so anything is possible . I give us about 10% chance of seeing frozen on Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I'm guessing you didn't see the rest of run. This is 18 hours later. EPS control is nearly identical to what the ECMWF is showing. GFS a little less bullish, but has sniffed this system out. CMC much further north. That gives you .01 of snow! You all in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 6Z GFS appears to be driving a low right up I-95, which would bode well for the Foothills and mountains. Not sure how it gives folks east of that anything but cold rain. What am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 6Z GFS appears to be driving a low right up I-95, which would bode well for the Foothills and mountains. Not sure how it gives folks east of that anything but cold rain. What am I missing? Backdoor cold front/anafront coupled with some lee side cyclogenises could be a decent solution for northern parts of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Backdoor cold front/anafront coupled with some lee side cyclogenises could be a decent solution for northern parts of NC. Ahhh, many thanks! I think I'll wait a day on the evolution, then. A lot of moving parts and a LOT of luck needed for my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Yeah, GFS still showing 4 to 6 inches here. Guess it really isn't backing off much. Hard to imagine that much snow after it starts off as rain and goes to ice first, but we'll see, especially since it looks like the other models are starting to come on board, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 for the SE, this a west of the Apps special (and they deserve it) - maybe some snow for NC - GA/SC are the losers here (I think I've heard Cessarich say the Apps/Blue Ridge "protect us" from events like this) I used to live in Memphis/Nashville and this set-up is a jackpot for TN I certainly hope so but been here before only to witness the storm go South of us to visit the Deep South, for example, last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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