mackerel_sky Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 RAH calls it cold chasing the moisture. makes no mention of a waveAll area offices nailed the last storm,even hours before it started , so there is that! Take what they say as gospel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 All area offices nailed the last storm,even hours before it started , so there is that! Take what they say as gospel! True that!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 It really is uncanny how all of these maps show the winter precip literally curving around the SC/NC state line. I guess winter just has an aversion to SC, or maybe SC has an aversion to winter, IDK. Even Robert's map above has that huge nose of no winter wx encompassing SC. Mississippi and Alabama can get it no prob, but forget about in SC Even the cold outbreak GFS run above has single digits in all the other SE states, but only 20s for SC. Unbelievable! As larry noted, you can thank the mountains and the leeside eddie from hell for that. No other place in the country east of the rockies has such an annoying and screw job making feature like that. I've sat here many a times frustrating beyond belief when the cold pours in all around us..even down to the gulf coast, while we bake in temps many degrees warmer than every single place in the eastern us northwest of the coastal plain. Looking ahead toward ~3/5-6: Wintry for BHM & nonwintry for ATL is very possible per models/climo. This setup favors BHM/N AL over ATL-AHN area due to the mountains as has been noted. Mtns help N GA in CAD but often hurt in these situations. I have not been able to find even one major ATL ZR (out of 31) from this setup going back at least to the late 1800's. So, IF there were to be anything wintry in ATL, I'd think it would be a minor event based on the current progged setup (slow front). I agree completely larry. This is not a good setup at all for us for the reasons you mentioned, except maybe the far northwest corner.It really sucks seeing so much arctic air just to the west and moving so easily southward until it hits ga and the mountains where it behaves like a wave washing ashore. Sometimes, these types of setups can feature narrow transition lines from rain to snow, dependant on the depth of the cold air. I've also seen crazy low temperature at the ssurface,crazy warm aloft Before too. In 1990, one of those cold fronts had a 12 temp in McAlester, OK, they had sleet and 1/2" hail with a thunderstorm. At the same time, i think It was Dubuque IA was reporting freezing drizzle at -2. Yeah the plains can have some absolutely incredibly temperature gradients horizontally and vertically. i remember a similar system just a few years ago out in MO or Arkansas that had temps in the teens with 850mb temps of 14 or 15c iirc. Out ahead of it the front temps were well into the 60s or maybe even into the 70s. This front here means business too. It's absolutely incredible to see the gfs showing surface temps in the low 20s and teens as far south as ms and al with precip and 850s quite a bit above freezing on the leading edge. Truly amazing to see this so late in the season. The temp drop with it is really something..with areas instantly dropping 20 degrees in just an hour or two. Places in ms and al are going to go from 60s tuesday night to teens less than 24 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 still there on 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 still there on 18z Crazy looking p-type map. Amazing that it knows state borders as its change to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Crazy looking p-type map. Amazing that it knows state borders as its change to rain. seriously...every run it straddles the nc/sc border perfectly lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Yeah, the 18z GFS has 3-6" of snow for much of N NC, verbatim. I have very little faith in that setup to produce, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 still there on 18z. That's the 12 run.. there's nothing but a cold rain on the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 That's the 12 run.. there's nothing but a cold rain on the 18z Incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 whoops, here is the 18z run, a littler snowier for nc than 12z actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Here's the 18z clearly you can see the freezing line has been pushed north.. 12z it was on the nc sc border now it's running through fayetteville nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Here's the 18z clearly you can see the freezing line has been pushed north.. 12z it was on the nc sc border now it's running through fayetteville nc Heck no! They're not sucking the Sandhills in again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 whoops, here is the 18z run, a littler snowier for nc than 12z actually Basically anyone in NC/ most of SC and the north half of GA/MS/AL could see snow/sleet etc with this kind of setup. I think we got nailed once or twice in the late 80's in similar setups in the eastern part of NC from lows forming on the end of these type of fronts off the SE coast....the CMC had that modeled a few days ago but dropped it.....either way the models certainly are hinting that some of us will get another chance at some accumulating winter precip by the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 According to 18z GFS most of NC doesn't get above freezing from hour 120 til 168, pretty impressive March cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Here's the 18z clearly you can see the freezing line has been pushed north.. 12z it was on the nc sc border now it's running through fayetteville nc You reading it wrong here is the 120 and 126 hr 2m temps on the 18Z here are the precip maps for the same two frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Looks like the GFS keeps coming in with a bigger storm. Pretty impressive foe the Triangle. So would we have to worry about this shifting north again, or is it a different setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DueUCMe Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 From Frank Strait...he uses the word "sinister": http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/strait/a-quick-word-about-next-weeks-storm/43133905 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Looks like the GFS keeps coming in with a bigger storm. Pretty impressive foe the Triangle. So would we have to worry about this shifting north again, or is it a different setup? You would have to worry about it shifting east more than north in this setup......everyone could see snow but where and even IF a low pressure forms and rides up the front etc have a lot to do with how much....it could end up being a prolonged overrunning event or a weak one or there could be a low etc....its a interesting setup and its also still 5+ days away so we could be looking at something that wont even happen nearly as impressively as the GFS has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I'm all in for this! It can't turn out any worse that the last one. Well, I guess it could. I could get .25 inches of snow instead of .5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Some have obviously not learned anything from the last system and are excited for the "snow storm" The models are "showing". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Some have obviously not learned anything from the last system and are excited for the "snow storm" The models are "showing". ? I got a snowstorm. You did, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 What a beautiful surface map posted above! If you show me a high in that position with an arctic front draped across the SE and an active southern stream, I am telling you that there's real potential there. I know we don't see features align like that these days, so we're not used to it. But if that setup turns out to be real, then we'll have more than just a few folks viewing this for in a couple of days. I'm more bullish on this than I was on the last pattern/system. I have been gone all day and haven't had a chance to look at H5, but I love that high pressure there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 ? I got a snowstorm. You did, too. Lol that was a major bust. That was snowflakes that went through the shredder thay fell. 10:1 is snow, not those slush flaked that fell from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Lol that was a major bust. That was snowflakes that went through the shredder thay fell. 10:1 is snow, not those slush flaked that fell from the sky. I got 10:1 ratios here. It was a still nice snowstorm for some. Let's not act like it was a bust and the "models" "showed" some magical snowstorm that didn't happen. Hell, it overperformed N/W. The models showed a storm. It happened as they "said". They underestimated the WAA in some areas, but those areas were always marginal and right on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I got 10:1 ratios here. It was a still nice snowstorm for some. Let's not act like it was a bust and the "models" "showed" some magical snowstorm that didn't happen. Hell, it overperformed N/W. The models showed a storm. It happened as they "said". They underestimated the WAA in some areas, but those areas were always marginal and right on the line. Only a handful of counties got heavy snowfall accumulations. for most, this was a bust. for the rest, it was as forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Ahead, guys, ahead. Let's go forward! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Only a handful of counties got heavy snowfall accumulations. for most, this was a bust. for the rest, it was as forecasted. If was a lot more than a handful, but okay. Almost all of N AL, some parts of N GA, W NC, E TN, most of N NC, most of S VA, SE VA, etc. got heavy snowfall accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Ahead, guys, ahead. Let's go forward! Back to forecasting...please. More weather to come...it's not the amounts, but the excitement of the casting. We will get some more snow, this has been on the ground for over 3 days. GFS looks very cold and 'juicy' for central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skbl17 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Yep, that's a ZR/SN event for ATL verbatim. Considering how...bad...the GFS has been the last two events, I'll wait until this shows up on the RGEM, UKMET, and the NAM before I start sounding the alarm. I do like the GFS's consistency on this idea, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Speaking of the ukmet, what did it look like at 12z? I've divorced the euro and now I'm hitched to the ukmet in holy weather matrimony, until a bust do us apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.