Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Last year's Arctic attack featured super cold 925mb temps... Speaking of arctic attack...at some point a specific thread should be made for what's coming up. I would like to have the honors but would like to wait until after the 12z runs Friday afternoon...any objections to that? Haha you can't call dibs on a future thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Haha you can't call dibs on a future thread! That's what everyone said last year at this time when I cranked it up about 5-6 days before the event, no one thought it would be a big deal until it got below zero... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 That's what everyone said last year at this time when I cranked it up about 5-6 days before the event, no one thought it would be a big deal until it got below zero... I was witchu all the way! And you should get the one for this year too. Motion carried! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 That's what everyone said last year at this time when I cranked it up about 5-6 days before the event, no one thought it would be a big deal until it got below zero... Hey, we need this badly! Atleast it's something to track besides normal and rain! If its close to as cold as last January, that would be amazing, and it's what kick started a decent month or so of winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Wow the low for RDU is 14...high? 20... And the Euro EPS and OP had a SE RIDGE during this time period....now the 00z run comes in like it has in the LR, meanwhile the Euro LR looks terrible. I don't know who I trust but I do lean in the GFS's direction for Day 10+, surprisingly. If it didn't see this first cold snap, will it see the next? Would love to see the verification scores Euro vs GFS from Dec 18th to present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 The European suite is just struggling w/ all of the energy that keeps spitting out of the southwestern US (hence the erroneous forecasts to over-amplify the SE US ridge, which flies in the face of the strong +PDO) and the Rex Block over the North Pacific is only going to add insult to injury Thats a very good point Eric! I didn't think of that until you said something. The euro might struggle all winter long with that much energy rolling through there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Hey, we need this badly! Atleast it's something to track besides normal and rain! If its close to as cold as last January, that would be amazing, and it's what kick started a decent month or so of winter! haha!, thanks guys...like I said, I will get it up and cranking tomorrow after the 12z GFS and once I can get some thoughts together to go along with it... I have a feeling this thread will remain active because that Jan 10-11th timeframe could create its own discussion soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 BTW, the DOC has been cleared for takeoff...I think he is pissed again, and is about to lay the hammer of the arctic down on the US, lets see how it plays out. HR114 1056mb high about to hit the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 BTW, the DOC has been cleared for takeoff...I think he is pissed again, and is about to lay the hammer of the arctic down on the US, lets see how it plays out. HR114 1056mb high about to hit the US Chris, The Doctor looks like it is gong to come in even colder than the 12Z Doctor once that strong cold reaches the SE from what I can tell so far! Get ready for something special in the cold department I think. Wow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Chris, The Doctor looks like it is gong to come in even colder than the 12Z Doctor once that strong cold reaches the SE from what I can tell so far! yeah definitely colder, might be largely due to the position of the cold vs. the low pressure over the lakes this run. This is going to come in hard. 126: 1056mb into the US....12z had 1044-1048 same time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 DT made a point about MJO plots from SUNY-Albany (http://www.wxrisk.com/this-issue-is-still-undecided/) and noted on his Facebook page how well these plots are performing lately. Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 EURO has opened the Arctic and is pissed off at how bad its busted its ass so far this winter. The ARCTIC HOUNDS are about to be unleashed. 1052mb high over the southern plains, this run @ 2m is even colder so far though 00z thur next week than the 12z euro run earlier today. WOW impressed!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Can I say a bad word? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Already colder at 06z on 1/8 than 12z on 1/8 on the 12z OP....if you follow that sentence...haha 14 at RDU this run which matches....ding ding ding, the 00z GFS. -6 in the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 -19C 850s into Charleston SC even. Parts of TN flirting with -30C Very cold air mass. 1047 sliding through by 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Running about 5-10 degrees colder through 6z thur next week VS the 12z euro run..lets put it this way....houston tx to jacksonville and north is at or below freezing. that was a good amount further north on the 12z run..... by 12z thur the 10 degree line looks to be from BHM to atl to GSP to east of CLT and RDU is close. CLT looks to be in the single digits to around Rome. 17-20 degrees from MGM to MCN to CAE freeze line is Orlando Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 2m temps into negatives in Western NC on morning of January 8th. 850mb temps are around -22/-23 Celsius in Central NC around that time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Interested to see where the doc goes in the 7-10 period. The GEFS has a much colder look now I'm the day 8-12 period with a big ole western ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Thats a very good point Eric! I didn't think of that until you said something. The euro might struggle all winter long with that much energy rolling through there. Yeah thanks! It was when I started to see the European forecasts for SE US ridge not verifying as forecasted, it solidified a growing suspicion I already had, especially given just how strong this +PDO is... It may sound redundant, but when you have the 5th highest fall PDO on record since 1900 and the strongest +PDO since the 1997-98 super El Nino, that means something, and even though my analogs suggest January may be the one month (if @ all) the SE US ridge tries to make its presence felt before in all likelihood it gets squashed in February... I've noticed, particularly when the PDO is strong like it is now (or on the opposite end of the spectrum as we observed in 2011-12 w/ most of the action focused in the southwestern US), it's exceedingly difficult to overcome, and often overwhelms most other parameters at hand, including intermittent attempts at SE US ridge amplification... We didn't see quite as classic of a +PDO signature in the 500mb in December as in this past November, but the setup we're in does not favor the SE US ridge to be a persistent, anomalous feature whatsoever as was being portrayed in much of the guidance especially the Euro suite earlier this week. In fact we're precisely in the kind of pattern that wants to suppress the SE US ridge into submission... This SST signature in the extratropical Pacific is about as textbook as it gets for a +PDO, just beautiful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 2m temps into negatives in Western NC on morning of January 8th. With most of WNC, upstate SC, And NEga in the 0-10 ( 0-5) range on the 8th!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Running about 5-10 degrees colder through 6z thur next week VS the 12z euro run..lets put it this way....houston tx to jacksonville and north is at or below freezing. that was a good amount further north on the 12z run..... by 12z thur the 10 degree line looks to be from BHM to atl to GSP to east of CLT and RDU is close. CLT looks to be in the single digits to around Rome. 17-20 degrees from MGM to MCN to CAE freeze line is Orlando Yeah 10 line goes through Durham County/Chatham (edit: and when I say chatham I mean Orange)...if I'm not mistaken...don't have a "10 line output" but just guessing...that's close. Aside: every time I say Euro on twitter EUReddit retweets me. Dang bots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Chris, The Doctor looks like it is gong to come in even colder than the 12Z Doctor once that strong cold reaches the SE from what I can tell so far! Get ready for something special in the cold department I think. Wow!! wow, is right, Larry!!! I don't know what to say either, I actually think it may get better. Looks like we might see a super CAD by D10 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 What a trend over the past 48hrs or so in model world. And we owe it all to the big Surry county Snowman for starting this thread. I hope we can make a run at 0. Heck if it's gonna be single digit, what's the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Can I say a bad word? We know you're excitied...as far as I'm concerned, we'll allow one slip a day, haha! Plus don't feel bad, everyone was cursing the Southeast Pig Ridge a couple days ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Shewww you talk about some cold!!! Complete 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 What a trend over the past 48hrs or so in model world. And we owe it all to the big Surry county Snowman for starting this thread. I hope we can make a run at 0. Heck if it's gonna be single digit, what's the difference. Yeah I'm rooting for the cold. We're pretty much SOL on a storm in this time period, so why not try to go as low as we can go? The modeling is going to have a cold bias anyway, so add +5 to those temps at least but still, I want the hammer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Aside: every time I say Euro on twitter EUReddit retweets me. Dang bots. They favorited my tweet as well. Those Reddit bots drives me nut! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 We know you're excitied...as far as I'm concerned, we'll allow one slip a day, haha! Plus don't feel bad, everyone was cursing the Southeast Pig Ridge a couple days ago! Well, I wouldn't say everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 The Wind Chills are no joke on the 00z Euro either. 5 here in KCAE, Negatives all over the place. Bye bye all my random flowers growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Do yall have any idea of how many post brick is gonna put out tommorow complaining about cold / dry. And he'll be at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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