Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 By the way, next week has that look where a surprise system could pop on the tail of the arctic front. The front looks to move through rather slowly. We used to see that type of scenario play out (more frequently than seems to happen today), where an arctic front would move slowly through the area and stall south and a wave or two of low pressure would form on the tail end of the front and move along it. I wouldn't be surprised to see that scenario start to come about next week. We'll see. I do like the position of HP behind the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Local media *gasp* wral has us at 48 for Thursday with showers and sunny and 40 on Friday. That is a lot different than what they had yesterday for Thursday. I think they had the high at 60 after the mid 60 on Wednesday. Still doesn't seem cold enough for anything here, but then again we're talking about a chance of some wintry mix here tomorrow, and that didn't look likely 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 That is a lot different than what they had yesterday for Thursday. I think they had the high at 60 after the mid 60 on Wednesday. Still doesn't seem cold enough for anything here, but then again we're talking about a chance of some wintry mix here tomorrow, and that didn't look likely 24 hours ago. They'll adjust it as we get closer, if things start to look more wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 By the way, next week has that lookp where a surprise system could pop on the tail of the arctic front. The front looks to move through rather slowly. We used to see that type of scenario play out (more frequently than seems to happen today), where an arctic front would move slowly through the area and stall south and a wave or two of low pressure would form on the tail end of the front and move along it. I wouldn't be surprised to see that scenario start to come about next week. We'll see. I do like the position of HP behind the front. I used to see this more back in the 1980's with stalled arctic fronts and in the early 90's. It's been awhile since we've seen the bleed down arctic fronts. Lately, with these fronts, in the past several years, they blast through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I know this is unrelated to weather, but does anyone know how I can get weather computer model feeds to my site? Does americanwx do this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I used to see this more back in the 1980's with stalled arctic fronts and in the early 90's. It's been awhile since we've seen the bleed down arctic fronts. Lately, with these fronts, in the past several years, they blast through. Yeah, exactly. I have missed those setups. There looks to be enough ridging SE to keep this one from blasting through, but we'll see. Could look totally different in a couple days. The 6z GFS, I believe it was, really had this thing crawling through. It's worth keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 They'll adjust it as we get closer, if things start to look more wintry. GFS has been consistent at least the last 3-4 runs with a changeover to snow Thur night into Friday...other models also have more or less the same general scenario but none look as good as the GFS does with it.....doesn't mean much yet but anafrontal systems with decently strong arctic fronts can produce here but its been awhile since we have had one like what the GFS shows.....any kind of sw energy ejecting into the front as it sits 150-200 miles offshore stalled out would bring a significant threat of snow especially Fri/Sat to parts of NC/SC IMO. At this point most of us in NC have 100% of climo or darn close to it but it would be nice to get one more shot at 3-6" since at least I got blanked in this last system. Finally from the WPC latest long range disco COLD NRN STREAM HIGH PRESSURE SINKS ACROSS THE WRN THEN CENTRAL US DURING THIS PERIOD...EVENTUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN US. A LEAD AND WAVY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING ENEWD OUT FROM THE SWRN US WILL ACT TO POOL MOISTURE AND FOCUS A POTENTIALLY LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER PCPN MON-WED ACROSS THE CENTRAL THEN ERN US IN ADVANCE AND WRAPPING BACK INTO THE TRAILING MAIN ARCTIC AIRMASS. THIS OFFERS YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER PCPN THREAT ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE OVERALL PCPN SHIELD AND HEAVY WARM SECTOR RAINS WITH INCREASED GULF INFLOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Looking ahead toward ~3/5-6: Wintry for BHM & nonwintry for ATL is very possible per models/climo. This setup favors BHM/N AL over ATL-AHN area due to the mountains as has been noted. Mtns help N GA in CAD but often hurt in these situations. I have not been able to find even one major ATL ZR (out of 31) from this setup going back at least to the late 1800's. So, IF there were to be anything wintry in ATL, I'd think it would be a minor event based on the current progged setup (slow front). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Looking ahead toward ~3/5-6: Wintry for BHM & nonwintry for ATL is very possible per models/climo. This setup favors BHM/N AL over ATL-AHN area due to the mountains as has been noted. Mtns help N GA in CAD but often hurt in these situations. I have not been able to find even one major ATL ZR (out of 31) from this setup going back at least to the late 1800's. So, IF there were to be anything wintry in ATL, I'd think it would be a minor event based on the current progged setup (slow front). Sometimes, these types of setups can feature narrow transition lines from rain to snow, dependant on the depth of the cold air. I've also seen crazy low temperature at the ssurface,crazy warm aloft Before too. In 1990, one of those cold fronts had a 12 temp in McAlester, OK, they had sleet and 1/2" hail with a thunderstorm. At the same time, i think It was Dubuque IA was reporting freezing drizzle at -2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Mike , I have seen that in other areas. However, due to the mountains, it would be very hard for that to occur in ATL. The 12Z GFS continues to show little for N GA ( other than maybe far NW GA ). It is very rare for this kind of setup to give most of N GA anything of sig wintry due to the mntns. That's why AL can get a lot & N GA very little. N GA isn't getting screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 They'll adjust it as we get closer, if things start to look more wintry. Oh for sure if it ends up looking that way. Just saying that is already a bug change for what they did have for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Mike , I have seen that in other areas. However, due to the mountains, it would be very hard for that to occur in ATL. The 12Z GFS continues to show little for N GA ( other than maybe far NW GA ). It is very rare for this kind of setup to give most of N GA anything of sig wintry due to the mntns. That's why AL can get a lot & N GA very little. N GA isn't getting screwed. Need to watch for a wave on the front after it translates through the area. It's not really modeled right now, but the southern stream is active and it wouldn't surprise me if something pops up. Atlanta could do well from something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Need to watch for a wave on the front after it translates through the area. It's not really modeled right now, but the southern stream is active and it wouldn't surprise me if something pops up. Atlanta could do well from something like that. CR, If an E GOM low were to pop afterward, that could help ATL a lot. However, if a low were to pop offshore the SE coast, the chances are high that it would not do all that much in ATL based on history. That would help RDU/E Carolinas way more most likely. So, I'd want an E GOM low to pop though I'm not expecting that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 CR, If an E GOM low were to pop afterward, that could help ATL a lot. However, if a low were to pop offshore the SE coast, the chances are high that it would not do all that much in ATL based on history. That would help RDU/E Carolinas way more most likely. So, I'd want an E GOM low to pop though I'm not expecting that right now. I hear ya. Makes sense. I'm not really expecting much to happen either, but it's not entirely out of the realm of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 12 still has it, decent little event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 CR and Larry, i wouldn't expect it to be a high impact event either, but that's the precautionary thing. I kind of talked about something offline here that i felt with this kind of pattern, a more significant event would probably not be modeled until neArly the event unfolds. (Basically a s/w unexpectedly developing along a wavy front or something along those lines). Best chAnces would be to see something develop similar to Jan 2002, Eastern GOM to offshore Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 That 1041 double barrel hp means business. If it were to shift north and east a bit in placement, suppressing the slp a bit, maybe yhe slp is a little stronger... that's a monster. Here's the southeast view of that 12z GFS that DopplerWx just posted: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 12Z Canadian says it gets cold too late to give us much frozen precip. Usually these "changeover" type storms don't amount to anything anyway but I guess it could trend to be a bigger storm the closer we get to the event. I hope so because I got a half an inch of snow from this last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 To me, it looks like cold chasing moisture... With the temperatures being so warm ahead of this and it being rain at the beginning, I can't see it being a big deal. Some slush worst case scenario, especially considering the time of day. Ground will be warm as will roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 To me, it looks like cold chasing moisture... With the temperatures being so warm ahead of this and it being rain at the beginning, I can't see it being a big deal. Some slush worst case scenario, especially considering the time of day. Ground will be warm as will roads. Keeping up the positivity I see! Good job and glad to know what's going to happen 5-6 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Keeping up the positivity I see! Good job and glad to know what's going to happen 5-6 days from now. haha.. I'm not being pessimistic. Just giving my opinion at THIS POINT in time. I agree we need to watch it from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 To me, it looks like cold chasing moisture... With the temperatures being so warm ahead of this and it being rain at the beginning, I can't see it being a big deal. Some slush worst case scenario, especially considering the time of day. Ground will be warm as will roads. Actually, that's not what the GFS shows. It shows a very strong cold front dropping through the region with RAIN then as the arctic air mass filters into the state another wave rides along the front spreading a lot of winter weather into NC. I'm not saying it's right, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 To me, it looks like cold chasing moisture... With the temperatures being so warm ahead of this and it being rain at the beginning, I can't see it being a big deal. Some slush worst case scenario, especially considering the time of day. Ground will be warm as will roads. Just like it was said with the last storm, if it is heavy enough none of that other stuff will matter as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I'd say if this cold front is as strong as modeled we're looking at another artic outbreak... GFS much colder than yesterday, very cold for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 The Euro shows some backside slush for some portions of NC, FWIW. All-in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 28, 2015 Author Share Posted February 28, 2015 WxSouth 3 mins · approaches the mountains on Wednesday Night, but behind it, more major snow, sleet and freezing rain looks like in the Deep South. I'm not sure how much , but it looks like a substantial amount of all 3 Winter precip types---and the temps are going to be simply amazing for March in the Deep South to MidAtlantic by Thursday and Friday. I will take a stab at the time line of the Heavy rain turning to ice, then snow in Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi , Alabama, Louisiana and Arkansas , then in Virginia and North Carolina at www.wxsouth.com soon. I dont trust the Foot of snow shown yet in part of TENN and MISS on GFS but the Euro is having issues lately on these setups, with waffling. The pattern is a very Wintery one.Hope you didn't bank on an early Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Actually, that's not what the GFS shows. It shows a very strong cold front dropping through the region with RAIN then as the arctic air mass filters into the state another wave rides along the front spreading a lot of winter weather into NC. I'm not saying it's right, though. really I like these type of setups since IF they do pan out there is no temp issues etc.....usually they are not big hits but can produce a general 3-6" type event ( which is what the GFS is putting out Thur-Sat) if everything goes well. I would love to see the strong low 150 miles off the SE coast the CMC had a few days ago on the tail end come back, that would have been a pretty sizable hit RDU to the east..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 That 1041 double barrel hp means business. If it were to shift north and east a bit in placement, suppressing the slp a bit, maybe yhe slp is a little stronger... that's a monster. Here's the southeast view of that 12z GFS that DopplerWx just posted: It really is uncanny how all of these maps show the winter precip literally curving around the SC/NC state line. I guess winter just has an aversion to SC, or maybe SC has an aversion to winter, IDK. Even Robert's map above has that huge nose of no winter wx encompassing SC. Mississippi and Alabama can get it no prob, but forget about in SC Even the cold outbreak GFS run above has single digits in all the other SE states, but only 20s for SC. Unbelievable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 RAH calls it cold chasing the moisture. makes no mention of a wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 RAH calls it cold chasing the moisture. makes no mention of a wave That's the right call from an official outlet at this point. On the weather boards, it's ok to talk about the possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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