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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread III


BIG FROSTY

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Where's the medium 3-10 day thread? Somebody needs to start a thread for Sunday morning!! Looks like sleet or zr down to ATL !

To prevent confusion, there is currently no modeled sleet or ZR threat anywhere near ATL/AHN for Sunday. I'm assuming this was not a serious comment. If it was serious, it isn't correct. Actually, I see no wintry threats there anytime soon on any models.

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To prevent confusion, there is currently no modeled sleet or ZR threat anywhere near ATL/AHN for Sunday. I'm assuming this was not a serious comment. If it was serious, it isn't correct. Actually, I see no wintry threats there anytime soon on any models.

I know I'm not supposed to be, but I'm watching TWC to see places where it actually snowed , and they have a graphic and everything for Sun morning, showed them at 31 with precip, had me around 27 and precip nearby. Showed it and talked about it 3-4,times since I tuned in
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To prevent confusion, there is currently no modeled sleet or ZR threat anywhere near ATL/AHN for Sunday. I'm assuming this was not a serious comment. If it was serious, it isn't correct. Actually, I see no wintry threats there anytime soon on any models.

Tell that to the Nizzzzzzz at the expert weather desk, he was all over that this morning!

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Anybody know if the Euro or any model other than the NAM has precip (ice/snow) in CAD areas for Saturday night/Sunday?

TW

The 12Z Euro has nothing then for any of the main CAD areas.

I maintain that I don't see this being a threat to ATL. Back a number of days ago, there had been a threat modeled for all major CAD areas on 2/28, which was just after the very cold high was moving into the NE and a large area of sig. qpf was being modeled. Now, anything is delayed to 3/1-2, when there will have already been a lot of modification of the NE cold. Also, there is way less to no qpf for 3/1-2 vs the sig. qpf when the threat was showing for 2/28. This is not at all the same threat there had earlier been for 2/28.

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FFC

-----------------

NAM IS MUCH WETTER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE

RE-EVALUATED FOR HIGHER POPS. 

 

 Even with the wetter 12Z NAM, it is still showing (virtually) no ZR for ATL-AHN corridor and only ~0.20" at GVL. My guidelines for giving much consideration for ZR at ATL-AHN with a wedge based on history include looking for 850's around the +3 to + 5 range for a good bit of it, including the start. For the most part, the GFS/NAM are showing 850's in the +5 to +8 range and the qpf is not all that impressive (NAM has very little qpf in ATL. Euro has none). I just can't get excited about this at this time for our areas, Steve. It looks nowhere close to the threats of the last two weeks imo, including the strong CAD/ice of last week, which was a way bigger threat and an actual sig. to major hit for many NE of ATL (including you??).

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Is it to soon to start a thread on this, its gonna happen to make good with folks in the south Triangle and us farther east since we took one for the team last night

 

That is just where we want it this far out. Just wish for some north-west trends later on and the mountains, foothills, western Piedmont, and northern Piedmont will jackpot. 

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Can't happen. Packbacker said winter was over and we were warming up after this week.

 

This.  I would also like to go peacefully into Spring.  I just ordered my gardening seeds.

 

Some modeling has wanted to bring a cold shot back later on, but eh.  I refuse to be excited unless there is a repeat of 1993 for someone.

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