packbacker Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Should make Pack happy. After next week, the end of winter seems inescapable. Yep! Weeklies FTW! They are a full on nuke torch. We better cash in days 5-9. So much going on next week, hopefully this weekend there is a threat we can track with more certainty. It's a do or die week for this winter, RDU is sitting on 1" for the winter. GSO is sitting on 2" and will probably get another 2-3" this weekend, they will have another solid winter if it ended after this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yep! Weeklies FTW! They are a full on nuke torch. We better cash in days 5-9. So much going on next week, hopefully this weekend there is a threat we can track with more certainty. It's a do or die week for this winter, RDU is sitting on 1" for the winter. GSO is sitting on 2" and will probably get another 2-3" this weekend, they will have another solid winter if it ended after this weekend.Who cares? We all will want spring after 4 wintry events in the next week! Kind of like saying - the summer will get hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yep! Weeklies FTW! They are a full on nuke torch. We better cash in days 5-9. So much going on next week, hopefully this weekend there is a threat we can track with more certainty. It's a do or die week for this winter, RDU is sitting on 1" for the winter. GSO is sitting on 2" and will probably get another 2-3" this weekend, they will have another solid winter if it ended after this weekend. We'll be lucky to get 2 or 3 raindrops this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Where's the cold air for the Thursday storm? Even if it comes N? I see a low around NY, don't see a high on the map in a place we would need it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Ryan posted this interesting map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The indices look really bad: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml But the day 16 GFS has this (I know day 16 but still it's a cold look for March 8th): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=384&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150220+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=403 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The indices look really bad: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml But the day 16 GFS has this (I know day 16 but still it's a cold look for March 8th): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=384&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150220+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=403 All of the Op models overnight say, "what warmup"? The ensembles don't look so hot, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The indices look really bad: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml But the day 16 GFS has this (I know day 16 but still it's a cold look for March 8th): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=384&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150220+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=403 But the MJO looks excellent, i.e., near or inside the circle, which tends to have cold implications in general per my earlier research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Both the 0z and 6z GFS push back any pattern change well into the 300+ timeframe. Not sure how long any -PNA is going to be able to last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Based on current projections, the last half of this Feb has a good shot at ending up as the coldest v normal of any since at least 1880 at ATL! If it ends up -12, it will reach that elite status. The coldest now is ~-11. Also, current projections bring feb as a whole as cold as -7 and likely at least -6.5ish. Though not nearly 100%, the correlation between very cold feb (say, colder than -6) & sig wintry prec at ATL is pretty strong. Hopefully, that will pay off in addition to the nice treats we got this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Based on current projections, the last half of this Feb has a good shot at ending up as the coldest v normal of any since at least 1880 at ATL! If it ends up -12, it will reach that elite status. The coldest now is ~-11. Also, current projections bring feb as a whole as cold as -7 and likely at least -6.5ish. Though not nearly 100%, the correlation between very cold feb (say, colder than -6) & sig wintry prec at ATL is pretty strong. Hopefully, that will pay off in addition to the nice treats we got this week. And we will have one inch of sleet and a glaze of ice to show for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Based on current projections, the last half of this Feb has a good shot at ending up as the coldest v normal of any since at least 1880 at ATL! If it ends up -12, it will reach that elite status. The coldest now is ~-11. Also, current projections bring feb as a whole as cold as -7 and likely at least -6.5ish. Though not nearly 100%, the correlation between very cold feb (say, colder than -6) & sig wintry prec at ATL is pretty strong. Hopefully, that will pay off in addition to the nice treats we got this week. Amazingly, as cold as this late Feb, is going to end up, 3/1-15/1960 was ~18 below normal and averaged ~33, or 4 colder! It produced 3 major winter storms at ATL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Amazingly, as cold as this late Feb, is going to end up, 3/1-15/1960 was ~18 below normal and averaged ~33, or 4 colder! It produced 3 major winter storms at ATL! How'd the rest of the SE look in March '60? My eyes were barely open then. I think my diaper was cold. lol Any map you can share? Thanks! Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Amazingly, as cold as this late Feb, is going to end up, 3/1-15/1960 was ~18 below normal and averaged ~33, or 4 colder! It produced 3 major winter storms at ATL! So in short, you're saying that based on statistics, if the end of this February turns out colder than average in ATL, then we will most likely have a much colder than average 1st half of March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 How'd the rest of the SE look in March '60? My eyes were barely open then. I think my diaper was cold. lol Any map you can share? Thanks! Phil All were way below normal at least for the 1st half and, in many cases, the entire month was colder than an avg. Jan! CHS had 0.5" of SN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 So in short, you're saying that based on statistics, if the end of this February turns out colder than average in ATL, then we will most likely have a much colder than average 1st half of March? No, I'm not saying that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 No, I'm not saying that lol. Gotcha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Looking at the GFS LR it looks like many in the SE will continue with below normal temps. At day 9 the GFS would indicate a CAD setup with maybe some ice concerns. After this it looks like an overall warmer pattern for the eastern US but many in the SE would still average below normal with more CAD possibilities (probably less chances of wintery precip). Day 9: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_219_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=219&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150222+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=364 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Coldest KATL Feb.'s vs. normal: -6 or colder (current one projected to be -6 to -7)(EN = El Nino): look at all of the wintry precip!! This is one reason I'm very excited about this last week's potential..it fits climo quite well. 1895: -11; 2 major SN and another ~1.5" SN1905 (EN): -9.5; 2 major ZR's and 3rd mod. ZR1902: -8.5; major IP1958 (EN): -8; major SN/IP2010 (EN): -7.5; major SN1968: -7; 3 SN's adding to 3.5"1947: -7; 2 Traces of SN1963: -6.5; 2 Traces of SN1885 (EN): -6.5; major SN plus other measurable SN1978 (EN): -6; 1 measurable SN and 3 more traces of SN1899: -6; major SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Interestingly, the 0Z CMC has revived the 2/28-3/1 CAD storm. Also, the 0Z Euro is closer to having it back. Hmmm. any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Interestingly, the 0Z CMC has revived the 2/28/3/1 CAD storm. Also, the 0Z Euro is closer to having it back. Hmmm. any thoughts?I can't handle 3 winter events in a week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Interestingly, the 0Z CMC has revived the 2/28-3/1 CAD storm. Also, the 0Z Euro is closer to having it back. Hmmm. any thoughts?we will let you start that thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Interestingly, the 0Z CMC has revived the 2/28-3/1 CAD storm. Also, the 0Z Euro is closer to having it back. Hmmm. any thoughts? RAH today. THE CAD PROCESS CONTINUES WITH COLD AIR FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ON SATURDAY. AIDED BY BY ANY PERTURBATIONS IN THE CONTINUED VERY FAST WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AOLFT..THERE COULD YET BE LINGERING LIGHT FLURRIES IN THE FOOTHILLS OR FAR WEST PIEDMONT. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR OR A DEGREE COOLER...STILL WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 40. AS WE OFTEN SEE IN STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIOS...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE COAST INDUCES AN INVERTED TROF...WHICH IN TURN BEGINS TO INCREASE MOISTURE ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COLD DOME BY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL BE INTRODUCING LOW CHANCE POPS INITIALLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD BE IN THE FORM OF A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/ICY STUFF...IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IF IT COMMENCES EARLY ENOUGH. WILL HAVE POPS RAMPING UP TO CHANCE CATEGORY BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS THE RIDGING WEAKENS AND OVERNIGHT MINS HOLD IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW A RICH GULF TAP...ENSURING GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AT PRESENT MODELS KEEP THE EAST COAST IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S BOTH DAYS...BUT IT DOES RESEMBLE AN IN-SITU DAMMING EVENT WHICH WOULD SHAVE 10 DEGREES (OR MORE) OFF HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Local had ice to rain for Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Just looking out to hour 84 on the NAM it does look like a good setup for this weekend. If anything this shows the cold we'll have after the storm to hopefully enjoy it before it melts away. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150224+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 GFS 12z today (Wed) is spewing out over 1" zr for RDU in 6-7 days via coolwx.com. I'll pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 GFS 12z today (Wed) is spewing out over 1" zr for RDU in 6-7 days via coolwx.com. I'll pass. Lets get ready to track. P-types at hour 150 (> .5 has already fallen at RDU): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_150_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=150&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150225+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I'm all in for 348 on the GFS ! That's a winner, look at that sick wedge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Where's the medium 3-10 day thread? Somebody needs to start a thread for Sunday morning!! Looks like sleet or zr down to ATL ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Where's the medium 3-10 day thread? Somebody needs to start a thread for Sunday morning!! Looks like sleet or zr down to ATL ! Start it, I'm all in. Since I have no chips left need to go see Guido, he will loan me the money, I still have a couple of fingers left from last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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