superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 It's been dry here, unfortunately, which is not very typical. December was around 25% below normal and January was ~33% below normal. And so far Fab Feb is around 50% below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 This has definitely been a classic El Nino winter in terms of temperature & precipitation, December & January are fairly typical looks for a traditional, east-based El Nino... & it's actually been wetter than normal in your region & the precipitation distribution is about as classic as it gets for an El Nino, w/ wetter than normal conditions east of the Appalchians & thru the coastal southeast & w/ drier than normal conditions over the Tennessee & Ohio Valleys Nope.....unless you are saying just around the Florence area, as it's slightly above. The rest of the area(CAE) is normal to slightly below, with mby just to the sw of CAE is slightly below along with Augusta and a portion of the upstate. CAE is about 1.25" under for the year so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Nope.....unless you are saying just around the Florence area, as it's slightly above. The rest of the area(CAE) is normal to slightly below, with mby just to the sw of CAE is slightly below along with Augusta and a portion of the upstate. CAE is about 1.25" under for the year so far Lol, we are talking of course about meteorological winter... (December-February) The overall precipitation distribution is very close to what is expected in an El Nino... Over the last 60 days according to AHPS precipitation analysis, it's actually above normal in Columbia... Womp Yeah this is completely uncharacteristic of a warm ENSO neutral-weak El Nino event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 No wonder it's quiet in here, the 6z GFS has the cold, but rain on the 16th, then rain all the way up into MI on the 20th! really is getting sad! I mean, yay for lows in the teens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Lol, we are talking of course about meteorological winter... (December-February) The overall precipitation distribution is very close to what is expected in an El Nino... Over the last 60 days according to AHPS precipitation analysis, it's actually above normal in Columbia... Womp Yeah this is completely uncharacteristic of a warm ENSO neutral-weak El Nino event... Dec.....+.79 thanks to the 2.51 that fell on the 24th Jan......-.98 Feb......-.33 Soooo....that would still be below normal precipitation for Met winter. MBY 10 miles sw of the airport has had even less rain as noted by the 75% of normal precip shown in the map above.......womp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Dec.....+.79 thanks to the 2.51 that fell on the 24th Jan......-.98 Feb......-.33 Soooo....that would still be below normal precipitation for Met winter. MBY 10 miles sw of the airport has had even less rain as noted by the 75% of normal precip shown in the map above.......womp The entire point of seasonal forecasting is to derive a general idea of the upcoming pattern based on a blend of persistence, hindcasted/backtested analogs, & boundary conditions, etc, all of which vary rather elusively according to background climatic, intraseasonal, and external pre-conditions & forcings... Nit-picking a specific backyard doesn't offer adequate verification of these forecasts & in fact according the NCDC for climate division 6 (Central South Carolina) in December & January is right at normal precip-wise, w/ 7.05 inches of precipitation & is ranked 73rd since 1895... Womp. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The entire point of seasonal forecasting is to derive a general idea of the upcoming pattern based on a blend of persistence, hindcasted/backtested analogs, & boundary conditions, etc, all of which vary rather elusively according to background climatic, intraseasonal, and external pre-conditions & forcings... Nit-picking a specific backyard doesn't offer adequate verification of these forecasts & in fact according the NCDC for climate division 6 (Central South Carolina) in December & January is right at normal precip-wise, w/ 7.05 inches of precipitation & is ranked 73rd since 1895... Womp. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/ At normal, above normal and below normal are different things. Using met winter(Dec, Jan and Feb) You stated a few times that the precip was above normal at CAE and I'm just correcting your statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 At normal, above normal and below normal are different things. Using met winter(Dec, Jan and Feb) You stated a few times that the precip was above normal at CAE and I'm just correcting your statement I've recieved a trace of snow , so I'm at zero for the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I've recieved a trace of snow , so I'm at zero for the year! Me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 At normal, above normal and below normal are different things. Using met winter(Dec, Jan and Feb) You stated a few times that the precip was above normal at CAE and I'm just correcting your statement It is correct for Columbia specifically, but as usual, & quite frankly to be spiteful, you're purposely ignoring the entire main point of this discussion... The isolated, singular report says little-if anything about the regional precipitation distribution that carries far more weight in assessing the validity of the seasonal temperature/precipitation predictions which in all, (taking into account a multitude of observations that effectively normalize the data & quell outliers) are unlike some have claimed, very typical for our current ENSO base state... +Neutral-Weak El Ninos are usually .5-1.0 inch below normal precipitation wise in central South Carolina in the winter, conditions at the moment are actually on the average, slightly wetter than what's to be expected in a "borderline" El Nino event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 At normal, above normal and below normal are different things. Using met winter(Dec, Jan and Feb) You stated a few times that the precip was above normal at CAE and I'm just correcting your statement OTH, I think we can both agree that it's really frustrating to watch a low pressure center w/ a category 1 hurricane equivalent low pressure center (<~990mb) scoot harmlessly out to sea near & below the latitude of Cape Hatteras over the next few days... The 1000mb pressure anomalies are in excess of 4 standard deviations below normal, 500mb heights greater than 3.... We've had some near-misses this year, but this one in particular was a huge one. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/1000hght_stdanom/1000hght_stdanom_namer_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 It is correct for Columbia specifically, but as usual, & quite frankly to be spiteful, you're purposely ignoring the entire main point of this discussion... The isolated, singular report says little-if anything about the regional precipitation distribution that carries far more weight in assessing the validity of the seasonal temperature/precipitation predictions which in all, (taking into account a multitude of observations that effectively normalize the data & quell outliers) are unlike some have claimed, very typical for our current ENSO base state... +Neutral-Weak El Ninos are usually .5-1.0 inch below normal precipitation wise in central South Carolina in the winter, conditions at the moment are actually on the average, slightly wetter than what's to be expected in a "borderline" El Nino event. I'm not being spiteful In your first response to Tamp you stated it is a classic El Nino with CAE(his area) in above normal precip. I was just correcting the statement OTH, I think we can both agree that it's really frustrating to watch a low pressure center w/ a category 1 hurricane equivalent low pressure center (<~990mb) scoot harmlessly out to sea near & below the latitude of Cape Hatteras over the next few days... The 1000mb pressure anomalies are in excess of 4 standard deviations below normal, 500mb heights greater than 3.... We've had some near-misses this year, but this one in particular was a huge one. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/1000hght_stdanom/1000hght_stdanom_namer_loop.html We live in the south......near misses are how we roll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Did we finally find winter? or will it warm up in time to just rain? All new weather video is up online, let me know what y'all think please. Thanks for watching, sharing the video and page. I appreciate it. -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 MJO: Being inside the circle during much of the upcoming cold is consistent with the Jan stats idea of the best opportunities for persistent cold in general being when inside the circle within the nonbad phases for a decent period of time. That being said, I didn't actually look at Feb data due to time constraints. However, I don't see why a similar idea couldn't hold for Dec and Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Folks, As we head toward the cold Feb. pattern, I'd like to reiterate the following for ATL as a proxy for much of the SE US: 1. For all analyzed Feb.'s, ATL had 1+ major winter storms 15 times or during 11% of them. So, I'm calling 11% the best estimate of the overall climo based chance for 1+ FEB majors at ATL 2. For the 111 Feb's that were 42 F or warmer (longterm normal is ~46), only a mere 3 had a major winter storm...so, only 3% of them had a major winter storm or only ~1/4 of climo. 3. For the 13 Feb.'s that were a quite cold 40-41.9 F (where ATL likely will end up if the overall cold pattern of the models is right), 5 of 13 had 1+ major winter storms (an impressive 38%, which is 3.5 times climo) for a total of 6 majors. 4. When Feb. was an extremely cold < 40 F (12 times), a whopping 7 of 12 (58%, which is 5.3 times climo) had 1+ major winter storms for a total of 9 storms! That's in the stratosphere vs. overall Feb. climo! So, to summarize ATL Feb. winter storm chances: - Feb 42+ F: 1/4 of climo - Feb 40-41.9 F: 3.5 times climo - Feb <40 F: 5.3 times climo Bottom line: The correlation of major winter storm frequency and avg. Feb. temperatures is quite strong and quite possibly stronger than that for Dec and Jan. The colder, the better. Assuming the rest of Feb. will be dominated by a cold pattern as per model consensus, I will have plenty reason to at least hope for a widespread SE major winter storm at some point this month. At this point, 40-41.9 is looking likely per models. However, I'm still not counting out the chance for a sub 40 F Feb. **Edited for typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Indices look really bad in the LR. PNA, NAO, and AO all go opposite of where we want them. The one bright spot is the EPO; which stays negative. Correct me if I'm wrong but that's what saved us last year. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If this can gain a little more speed we'll be golden. Kind of coming at the worst time of the day. QPF hitting NC should mainly be snow @117. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GFS really goes BOOM at 123! This is a good run. I wouldn't worry to much about temps the overall setup is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Boom is right! Heavy precip rolling into N ga WSC, and NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 HM says new Euro weeklies are just as cold Feb 23 - Mar 1 as they are for Feb 16-22 in eastern 2/3 of country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 HM says new Euro weeklies are just as cold Feb 23 - Mar 1 as they are for Feb 16-22 in eastern 2/3 of countrygood deal. Let's get a couple of storm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Both the LR GFS and Euro show repeating cold shots and chances for winter weather, particularly the GFS (on the winter threats). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Still looks like a cold and stormy pattern for the foreseeable future. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Does anyone have a current read on the QBO? I am wondering if that has come back a little bit to allow this el nino pattern to finally take hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Two multiinch IP's within one winter much less within four days as per the 0Z Euro would be unprecedented since at least the late 1800's in ATL. So, take with a grain of course. Interestingly, ATL has gotten 2 major SN's (4"/6") within four days in 2/1895 (weak Nina) & 2 major ZR's within 4 days in 2/1905 (weak Niño) & in 12/1935 through 1/1936 (high end neutral +). So, two majors within four days happened 3 times within 41 years (twice with similar ENSO) (twice in Feb). So, it has decent precedent & we are probably overdue in a sense since it has been 79 years after having 3 of them within 41 years. The two major ZR's in 1/2000 were a week apart. 2/1979's 2 majors (ZR/IP) were ~11 days apart. So, there have been 3 Feb's with 2 majors. The great 1/1940 weak Niño had 2 majors (ZR/SN) but they were ~2.5 weeks apart. The great weak Niño of 1884-5 had 2 majors (1 in jan & 1 in Feb). Those were 2 of my top analogs fwiw. ATL has had 2-3 majors ~once every 13 years. The last one was 15 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I've recieved a trace of snow , so I'm at zero for the year! I've always been curious as to how one goes about tracing snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 If you go by the indices, spring will start at the end of the month. PNA - looks to go strongly negative NAO - Of course stay positive AO - Looks to go very positive EPO - Looks to go positive All bad signs if you want the cold to stay. So if we're going to get any snow we need to do in the next 10 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Well, we found winter for some, but can we do it again? How about we let more have some wintry weather as well. My thoughts on where the pattern is heading, and how we can all enjoy winter, while it lasts. -Chris Thanks for watching folks. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Comments from HM on today's Euro weeklies... "New ECMWF weeklies continue to suggest a gradual building of the southern US / SE ridge in March (weeks 3-4). Surface temps respond week 4. Week 2 spatially is similar to week 1 but moderates cold. Week 3, the cold shrinks further and finally reversed week 4." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Comments from HM on today's Euro weeklies... "New ECMWF weeklies continue to suggest a gradual building of the southern US / SE ridge in March (weeks 3-4). Surface temps respond week 4. Week 2 spatially is similar to week 1 but moderates cold. Week 3, the cold shrinks further and finally reversed week 4." Should make Pack happy. After next week, the end of winter seems inescapable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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